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COVER STORY: WAR DIPLOMACY
Target Afghanistan
For the Central Asian states the outcome of the war is not in doubt. The
debate is on the future regime in Kabul and the role of the Northern Alliance.
By
Raj Chengappa in Almaty, Kazakhstan
It is being billed
as the first great war of the 21st century. But as the US-led "coalition
of willing nations" targets the recalcitrant Taliban regime in Afghanistan,
the initial tactics for battle could well be taken from Chanakya's Arthashastra.
In Dushanbe, the mountain capital of Tajikistan-the strategically located
former Soviet republic which has for long been the staging ground for
Afghan opposition groups-they have a Russian phrase for it: otkhod podkhod.
Roughly translated, it means knowing how to take the devious route.
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MOBILE
ARSENAL: Aircraft carrier USS George Washingtaon
is ready to stike from the Persian Gulf
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Afghan war veterans stationed there even have
a formula for the strategy that will determine the war. They call it "70
per cent money and only 30 per cent fighting". The idea is to get
many of the tribal warlords loyal to the Taliban to switch sides through
bribes and inducements, making the main war easier to fight. So in the
first week of the big war, while US President George W. Bush corralled
international support before unleashing its military might, the American
strategy in Afghanistan itself was an ancient one of dividing the enemy
ranks before the real battle begins.
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COUNTDOWN TO THE US OFFENSIVE
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STEP ONE: Declares America
is at war against terrorism. Rallies domestic political support
and starts diplomatic offensive to forge global coalition.
STEP TWO: Rallies NATO to invoke collective
defence obligations; Russia extends support. Puts pressure on Pakistan
to help.
STEP THREE: Mitigates damage to
the American economy; bails out airline companies. OPEC is told
to contain any runaway rise in oil prices.
STEP FOUR: Neutralises Pakistan by
lifting sanctions and rescheduling debts. Gets Central Asian states
to extend logistical support.
STEP FIVE: Outlaws terrorist groups.
Targets financial network of terrorists; tells banks to fall in
line. EU and the Swiss freeze suspect accounts.
STEP SIX: Combats pan-Islamic upsurge
by distinguishing Islam from terror. Saudi Arabia and UAE sever
their diplomatic links with the Taliban.
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It was perhaps appropriate. Especially against
a regime whose avowed mission is to take its country back to a purist
Islamic society of medieval times. Also with Afghanistan's warring factions
highly vulnerable to such tactics, these have often proved decisive in
determining who ruled Kabul. Despite the Taliban controlling 90 per cent
of Afghanistan's territory, in the five years since it stormed to power
it has been dependant on the loyalty of chieftains to maintain law and
order. There were indications last week that the Taliban had become increasingly
jittery about counting on their support.
The psychological warfare too seemed to be working,
with four million people or a quarter of Afghanistan's population fleeing
to neighbouring countries, particularly Pakistan, to avoid being caught
in the crossfire. It seems the American game is to demolish the Taliban
and replace it with a regime hostile to the Islamists, if not favourable
to the US. Then the talks of hunting down Osama bin Laden, the main suspect
in the September 11 attack, would be far easier. It also wants to do this
without involving and losing too many of its soldiers on the ground.
As part of its strategy to create an anti-Taliban
avalanche, last week it signalled to the Northern Alliance (NA), a loose
coalition of Afghan resistance groups, to launch a major offensive. With
the Taliban concentrating its forces on defending key cities such as Kandahar
and Kabul, the NA made some spectacular gains, even coming within striking
distance of Kabul.
Only the week before the September 11 attacks,
the NA had been dealt a mortal blow when its charismatic commander Ahmad
Shah Masood was killed in a bomb that exploded while he was being interviewed
by two journalists. Incidentally, the American media that once gave Masood
the sobriquet of Lion of Panjshir has concluded that he was a "secular
figure", a sort of Afghan Kemal Ataturk.
That may be unwarranted but smelling a chance
to return to power the NA moved swiftly to regroup itself. With Masood
gone, a troika assumed charge. It comprised Mohammed Fakhim Khan, Masood's
trusted lieutenant and the new defence minister, Foreign Minister Abdullah
Abdullah and Interior Minister Engineer Arif. Burhanuddin Rabbani, the
scholar president of the alliance who heads the Government in exile recognised
by the UN, continued as its titular head. While Khan's forces readied
for a big thrust from the Panjshir valley, it was another erstwhile warlord,
Abdul Rashid Dostum, who made some major inroads, especially in Mazar-e-Sharif,
a key air base. If the opposition forces wrest control of the Salang tunnel,
they would for the first time in three years hold sway over the northern
territories that account for as much as 40 per cent of Afghanistan.
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