Major General (retd) Afsir Karim led a para-commando battalion during the 1971 Bangladesh operations. He served in Jammu and Kashmir as an infantry brigade commander on the LoC and later headed an infantry division in the Rajasthan desert. The following is his conception of the war scenario in the Afghan theatre.

President George Bush made American resolve clear in his declaration to the joint session of the US Congress on September 20. He announced the beginning of a "war on terror" and demanded that the Taliban turn over Osama bin Laden and terrorists of the Al Qaida group. In the impending war against Afghanistan, the US is likely to seek the destruction of the Taliban's military forces, the dismantling of the radical regime and the possible installation of a new multi-ethnic political structure acceptable to the majority in Afghanistan.

HIGH HURDLES

# Military victory may not necessarily lead to the achievement of long-term political objectives due to ethnic strife and tribal antagonisms.

# Attitudes of the US allies cannot be predicted. Pakistan may provide clandestine assistance to the Taliban to dismantle the new regime.

# If US suffers heavy casualties, it may move out in a hurry, leaving Burhanuddin Rabbani or Zahir Shah to fend for themselves.

US OPTION "A"

# Assist the Northern Alliance to capture Kabul; provide air support, military hardware, expert advice and operational intelligence.

# Watch the progress of the Northern Alliance forces before launching major operations.

# Search and destroy Al Qaida installations and training camps by using special forces.

# Capture lightly held areas or secure ones evacuated by the Taliban forces.

# Isolate the battlefield around Kabul to keep out Taliban reinforcements.

KEY PLAYERS
OMAR: Still holding out	BIN LADEN: Most Wanted	RABBANI: The alternative

OPTION "B"

# Mount massive air and missile attacks to destroy the Taliban's air bases, ground forces, logistic support bases, disrupt supply routes and block the movement of reserves.

# Employ airborne forces to capture and hold Kabul; hand over to the Northern Alliance and withdraw most troops.

# Eliminate bin Laden and his terrorist associates.

# Continue mop-up operations to destroy pockets of resistance and logistic support to the Taliban.

# Capture the Taliban leadership and bring it to trial.