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NEIGHBOURS: BANGLADESH
Talibanisation Of Bangladesh
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DETHRONED: Hasina (above) has rejected the
poll results; (below) Awami League supporters protest against rigging
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Cashing in on the
situation and drawing lessons from previous elections, Begum Zia hitched
on to the fundamentalist Jamaat-e-Islami and the Islami Oikya Jot (Islamic
United Front). This made her vulnerable to accusations of pandering to
religious hawks and pushing the Muslim-dominated country headlong into
the hands of Islamic zealots. "The logical fallout would be the gradual
Talibanisation of Bangladesh," warned filmmaker Shahriyar Kabir,
but the Begum was more concerned about the immediate future. Even in the
worst of times, the Jamaat has enjoyed a vote share of around 8 per cent.
This, coupled with the BNP's minimum assured vote bank of around 33 per
cent, took the alliance arithmetically ahead of the League. The anti-incumbency
sentiment made things easier and though the run-up to the election was
bitter, tense and littered with violent incidents, Begum Zia emerged the
winner.
But winning the elections, the BNP leader knows,
is only half the battle. The real challenge would be to give the nation
a transparent administration. "The expectations are very high,"
explains Salehuddin Ahmed, deputy executive director of BRAC, the biggest
non-governmental organisation in Bangladesh. Though aspirations are rising,
the country is yet to make a quantum jump on the economic front. The poverty
level, which stands at 45 per cent, continues to drop by 1 per cent every
year and lifestyle improvement is taking place at a disconcertingly slow
pace. "The Bangladesh economy has achieved a fair bit of resilience.
Now the challenge is to graduate to higher levels of development,"
says Hossein Zillur Rehman, an economist with the Dhaka-based Power and
Participation Research Centre. But loss-making PSUs continue to bleed
the economy and the country has accumulated bank debt defaults to the
tune of 15,000 crore Bangladeshi takas (Rs 12, 572 crore).
While the economy would put the new Government
to test, so would the country's notoriously fickle relationship with India.
Though India-baiting was largely missing from her campaign this time,
Begum Zia has never been known as an ally of the country. With the stridently
anti-Indian Jamaat under her fold, India, it is widely believed, has more
cause for worry now.
"Much of the alarm has no basis,"
feels former Bangladesh foreign secretary Faruq Ahmed Chowdhury. "The
BNP has done business with India in the past and it should have no problems
in dealing with it in the future." But not many in the Indian mission
share such optimism. While bilateral relations between Bangladesh and
India received a major boost during Hasina's tenure-with agreements on
the sharing of Ganga waters, the bus service between Dhaka and Kolkata
and the planned rail connectivity-the fear is that with their pro-Pak
moorings, the Jamaat leaders would now be inclined to disagree with India
on pending issues such as transit rights.
Though the BNP cannot be arm-twisted into submission
because of the numerical majority it singularly enjoys in Parliament,
the Jamaat by virtue of being in the coalition is likely to demand its
pound of flesh. It prefers radical Islam and would love to stand up more
firmly against India. And from its perceptible pro-Indian tilt, Bangladesh
may well swing towards being pro-Pakistan. While transit rights could
easily be forgotten for the time being, India may even lose Bangladesh
as one of its rare Islamic supporters in the international fora. In sum,
it isn't only the Awami League that has lost out in the elections. As
far as Bangladesh is concerned, India's boat too, it would seem, has run
into rough weather.
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