|
COVER
STORY: DIPLOMACY
Where India Stands
Playing the good boy of the global coalition may
bring unintended benefits in Afghanistan but won't lessen the burden of
terrorism in Kashmir
By Swapan Dasgupta and Shishir Gupta
| |
|
| |
COURTING INDIA: (from left) Singh, Blair, Vajpayee and Brajesh
Mishra
|
The grand south
block office of External Affairs Minister Jaswant Singh carries an indelible
stamp of his personality and his politics. The setting is empire, the
choice of books Curzonian and there is a definite Hindu accent on the
walls.
The cruel world intrudes nominally-on the mantlepiece.
Jostling incongruously with a Ganesh icon is a pair of binoculars mounted
on a wooden base. It carries the inscription: "Hijacking of IC 814
to Kandahar, December 31, 1999. A Reminder". The binoculars were
used by the hijackers.
After September 11, India can say we-told-you-so.
But prescience isn't always rewarded. As expensive bombs pound primitive
terrorist camps, the inevitable questions are being asked about India's
gains and losses from the first war of the 21st century.
IS INDIA RELEVANT TO THE WAR?
|
G. PARTHASARATHY: Former high
commissioner to Pakistan
|
|
|
|
|
| "Pakistan
has gained short-term economic benefits and a greater acknowledgement
from the international community by joining the US-led coalition against
the Taliban. But it is the Vajpayee Government that gave legitimacy
to General Musharraf by rolling the red carpet at Agra. Islamabad
will have to reorient its foreign policy and give up the Islamist
cause in Chechnya and Central Asia. It will have to live with the
fact that Afghanistan is no longer its client state."
|
|
As of now, there doesn't seem to be any military
role for India in the Afghan war. So why does British Prime Minister Tony
Blair-in an unlikely role as President George W. Bush's special envoy-fly
to India for consultations? Why is US Secretary of State Colin Powell
planning the same this week? Why was Singh given the privilege of meeting
the US President, vice-president, secretary of state, defence secretary
and national security adviser during his two-day trip to Washington DC?
As a nuclear power, India is never inconsequential.
But it is important for other reasons too. First, it is a dependable ally
against the Taliban. Its opposition to the jehadis is natural, not expedient.
Secondly, it has an acquired institutional knowledge of Afghanistan-useful
in the game of intelligence sharing. In particular, it has influence over
the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance. Finally, it is a bridge to Iran, a
Muslim neighbour of Afghanistan, that loathes the Taliban but also hates
the US.
HAS PAKISTAN UPSTAGED INDIA?
After September 11, Pakistan was faced with
two choices: siding with the US or being treated as an adjunct of the
Taliban regime. President Pervez Musharraf chose to cut his losses and
embrace Bush for the sake of the "national interest".
There are definite short-term benefits for him.
First, the US-imposed sanctions against Pakistan have been lifted. This
will enable it to get multilateral credit and resume purchases of conventional
arms. For Musharraf, the stigma of being a military usurper has been removed.
He can now be the new Ayub Khan-a moderniser who speaks the West's language.
That the pesky jehadi brass in the army has been immobilised makes his
life easier. He doesn't have to worry about a palace coup.
There is a flip side though. For Pakistan, the
installation of the Taliban regime in 1996 was a spectacular bonus. It
was the first time since 1947 that Pakistan had a friendly Afghan regime.
To Pakistani strategists, this gave the country a "strategic depth"
against India. Not to mention a constant supply of experienced jehadis
willing to do battle in Kashmir-for a consideration.
The loss of Afghanistan will be a staggering
blow for Pakistan. At one stroke, it has earned the enmity of the Taliban,
the jehadis and refuelled the Pashtoon-Pakistan divide along the Durand
Line. This will have social consequences domestically and make the Musharraf
regime unstable.
For India, the collapse of the Taliban will
be an unintended bonus. After five years, it has an opportunity to regain
a foothold in Kabul. That is, unless the West acts on Blair's assurance
that Pakistan has a "legitimate" interest in a post-Taliban
Afghanistan.
|
METRO TODAY
Web
Exclusives
