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COVER STORY: DIPLOMACY
Does Afghanistan Matter?
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A ROLE FOR THE KING: A shopkeeper in Quetta holds a portrait of
Zahir Shah
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It has always mattered
to India. From 1947 to 1992, much to Pakistan's chagrin, Afghanistan was
India's natural ally in the region. The Soviet invasion complicated matters
and put India on the wrong side. Now it has an opportunity to rectify
matters.
It won't be easy. India has allies in Russia
and Iran. Both, for very different reasons, are anxious to rid Afghanistan
of fundamentalist Wahabis. Though Iran is out of the loop, India and Russia
have insisted that those linked to the Taliban should find no place in
a future Afghan dispensation. Tajikistan and Uzbekistan feel likewise,
and India has courted them systematically. Pakistan, on the other hand,
is anxious that last-minute defectors from Mullah Omar's camp are honourably
accommodated.
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AMITABH MATTOO: Associate professor,
JNU
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"Pakistan's
long-term gains will depend on whether the military regime can make
a transition from jehadi culture to a society based on democratic
values. It is true that the US often maintained links with dictators.
However, given the fractured polity, Pakistan cannot be a strategic
ally of the US unless it stabilises itself."
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LT-GEN SATISH
NAMBIAR: Director, United Services Institution
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"There is unlikely
to be any let-up in the activities of Pakistan-sponsored foreign
mercenaries in Jammu and Kashmir. That is a battle that India will
have to handle on its own. No one else is going to fight for us.
Delhi should use the current situation to its advantage and flush
out the terrorists in the Kashmir Valley as also in other parts
of the country."
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A proposal that is being firmed up envisages
a 120-member interim assembly. Of this, 50 will be chosen by the Northern
Alliance, 50 Pashtoons nominated by King Zahir Shah and other groups will
be given 20 seats. The assembly will unanimously elect a transitional
head. If unanimity proves elusive, the king will assume charge.
The US, whose knowledge of Afghanistan is less
than elementary, is still wavering. There is pressure to give Musharraf
a consolation prize. However, in view of what happened when the anti-Soviet
war was subcontracted by the CIA to the ISI, a blank cheque is unlikely.
The temptation will be to give Musharraf a different sop.
HOW DOES IT ADD UP IN KASHMIR?
Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee wrote to
Bush after the October 1 outrage in Srinagar that there is a "limit
to Indian patience". Pakistan interpreted this as India's readiness
to exploit its difficulties and start a war. It cried foul and the world
rushed to urge "restraint". However, Singh generously clarified
in the US that India didn't "want to add to the already complex situation
in Pakistan". He ruled out "hot pursuit" even as Vajpayee
turned hawkish in Varanasi.
Is India confused and helpless? It certainly
seems so. The cry of retribution is strictly for domestic consumption.
India has been assured by the US that a ban on Jaish-e-Mohammed is imminent.
At the same time, the US and Britain have ruled out incorporating terrorism
in Kashmir in the global agenda. The Lashkar-e-Toiba won't be on the US
black list because it's run by the ISI. Banning it offends the expediency
of anti-terrorism.
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BARGAINING: Musharraf trying to offset Afghanistan with Kashmir
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So, how does India benefit from a global war
against terror if its own jehadi problem is bypassed? Worse, if Musharraf
is made to feel Kashmir can compensate for Afghanistan, what is there
for India? Will it meekly join Israel in the list of friends made inconvenient
by changed circumstances?
India, it is becoming clear, must expect no
favours. It has to fight its own war. Singh is said to have told the US
vice-president "Kashmir is our challenge". Against Musharraf's
likely thrust on third-party mediation, India will do well to set its
house in order. The world now knows terrorists have no human rights.
For the West, "homeland defence" is
the priority. It sits up when New York is devastated, not when Srinagar
explodes. Pakistan is known to be shifty and hand-in-glove with the jehadis
but in the hunt for Osama bin Laden there's a role for a poacher turned
gamekeeper. Pakistan borders Afghanistan. India doesn't.
Pakistan will be the flavour of the season till
the Afghan war lasts. If Bush's campaign ends in Kabul, it will trigger
a bloodier war in Kashmir. The US will just look away. Unless Pakistan
starts burning and the smoke travels. In which case, India becomes the
frontline state.
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