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VIEWPOINT: KAUTILYA
A
Soldier's Journey
Powell
came, Powell saw, Powell concurred — but with whom?
By Jairam Ramesh
US Secretary of State Colin Powell
has just completed a whirlwind visit to the subcontinent. It is now abundantly
clear that the Americans have decided to put all their Pakistani eggs into
the Pervez Musharraf basket. Whatever the Indians may say about the General's
duplicitous nature and lack of trustworthiness, Washington has gambled and
decided to back him to the hilt.
Such a strategy is not without its risks. In
the past, unstinted support to an individual has cost the US dear as its
experience with the Shah of Iran demonstrated. American backing of repressive,
non-democratic regimes in many West Asian countries has also fuelled great
resentment. Thus, the US will have to think of engaging Pakistan across
a broad front over a period of time in as comprehensive a manner as possible.
Musharraf himself is probably a marked man. Hence, a commitment to him
should be accompanied by some thought to fallback positions.
 But
for the moment, Musharraf appears to be holding firm and has certainly
impressed the Americans by taking on the fundamentalist forces in his
country. That he may have done so out of compulsion and only because of
American arm-twisting is besides the point. The fact is that the entire
international community now sees Musharraf as a reasonable-sounding man
with whom India must do business. Agra may have been a bitter experience
but do we have any alternative other than to resume the peace process?
A quiet American role may help structure the peace process better and
not hold everything hostage to a settlement on Jammu and Kashmir.
The war in Afghanistan is grinding on. The US
is groping for a quick solution. The military window of opportunity is
open for just about a month before the onset of both Ramzan and the winter.
This lends greater urgency to military operations, in the success of which
India has a stake. Richard Haas, director of policy planning in the US
State Department, has just been appointed to coordinate the political
strategy. Although he is a West Asia expert, for the past few years Haas
has been actively involved with the subcontinent as well. Zalmay Khalilzad,
an Afghan-American scholar of distinction, is also playing a key role
out of the White House. India has to work closely with them to ensure
that a non-Taliban regime is installed in Kabul.
The primary requirement in the political strategy
should be to look after Afghanistan's interests first and foremost and
not be overly worried about what Pakistan thinks. However, we cannot deny
Pakistan's legitimate security concerns in Afghanistan, although it may
well be the case that Pakistan is deliberately overplaying the demographic
dominance of Pashtoons in Afghanistan. Russia and Iran also have vital
interests in Afghanistan, as do Uzbekistan and Tajikistan. Iran has made
statements both supportive and critical of the US action in Afghanistan.
But American suspicion of Iran runs deep. Uzbekistan has embraced America
warmly and it looks as if the Americans will use it as a base for expanding
their sphere of influence in Central Asia. The key resource-rich countries
in the region, however, are Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan which are not
directly embroiled in the Afghan conflict. It will help the US as well
as all other countries if the UN were to orchestrate the political strategy
and reconstruction.
Powell's visit has brought Kashmir back into
sharp focus, more so because it was preceded by India's attack on terrorist-training
camps across the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir. This was in keeping
with the penchant of the two subcontinental adversaries for using high-profile
visits to make their respective points in a dramatic manner. Kashmir may
not quite be a "core" issue as Musharraf makes it out to be,
but Powell and the rest of the world believe that it is a "central"
issue between the two nuclear countries. At some stage surely we have
to recognise this reality.
And at some stage surely we have to admit to
ourselves that Jammu and Kashmir's continuing tragedy is not just the
creation and consequence of cross-border terrorism masterminded by Pakistan.
To be sure, in recent years the nature of militancy in the Valley has
changed and we have been brutally exposed to export-oriented terrorism
from Pakistan and Afghanistan. But this cannot be and is not the whole
picture. There are strong domestic roots to our predicament in the Valley.
Military options are extremely limited. Elections to the state Assembly
are due in about a year. The next few months, therefore, are going to
be crucial for broad-basing and sustaining the political process in that
state and for taking steps to show to the world the great resilience and
absorptive capacity of representative Indian democracy. The US can play
a key role in reining in Pakistan so that the electoral process is conducted
in a peaceful manner, but the primary responsibility to ensure that the
elections are perceived as free and fair is ours.
(The author is with the Congress party. These
are his personal views.)
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