Advantage Outsiders
With the balance tilted against it, the Taliban regime will soon find itself vanquished.

Lull Before The Storm
Amid calls for a quick and decisive end to the conflict, Afghanistan has been abuzz with talk of an imminent Northern Alliance ground war against the Taliban.

History's Pointers
The Soviet Union's 10 years campaign in Afghanistan — a conflict that led to a humiliating withdrawal and, some say, its eventual breakup
— can be a learning experience for
the US.

COVER STORY: FRONTLINE DESPATCH

Lull Before A New Desert Storm

The Northern Alliance is holding back from a ground war with the Taliban as the US begins decisive strikes

By Raj Chengappa in Jabal Saraj, Afghanistan

	READY AND WAITING: Northern Alliance tanks lined up in the town of Khwaja Bahawudin

In the lush Shomali Valley on the outskirts of Kabul, the Bagram airbase is dwarfed by thick vegetation. It provides a perfect camouflage for the rows of artillery guns and tanks that both the Taliban and the Northern Alliance, the resistance group, have lined up against each other. If you are not aware of it, you may even miss seeing the military buildup. Bagram, 35 km from the centre of Kabul city, is the oddest of battlefields. Half the airport, including the control tower, is in the hands of the Northern Alliance that has positioned about 7,000 of its troops and some of its finest armoury there. On the other side of the runway, the Taliban regime has arrayed an equally mighty armed force in the undulating terrain. It has recently been joined by some of the hardiest fighters of Osama bin Laden's Al Qaida group, apart from Pakistani jehadis.

The stakes are high. Bagram is the gateway to Kabul for the Northern Alliance. For weeks now, Jabal Saraj, the southern headquarters of the Alliance forces about 15 km from Bagram, has been abuzz with rumours of a major offensive being launched to take the capital from the Taliban.

SHELL SHOCKED: A Northern Alliance soldier watches in disbelief as US bombs are mistakenly dropped on his camp

But so far the alliance is clearly holding back. For despite the almost daily bombardment of Kabul by American jets, the Alliance's assessment is that the Taliban frontline in the Shomali Valley has not been seriously dented. "America thinks that a few days of bombing will defeat the Taliban. We know better," said General Baba Jan, a senior commander, last week at Bagram. "We have been fighting for 23 years and we have yet to bring peace to Afghanistan."

Just how long will the war against Afghanistan and bin Laden's terrorist group last? That is America's and the world's greatest worry as US forces launch the second phase of the operation. In the first phase, through a campaign of sustained bombardment, it was able to disrupt Taliban communications and substantially damage the armour guarding the main cities. It established a fair degree of control of air space in many areas. Its fighter jets and attack helicopters can now strike at will.

The US had hoped that the bombings would demoralise the main Taliban commanders enough for them to rebel against Mullah Mohammed Omar, the regime's supreme ruler. Pakistan even floated the alternative of a moderate Taliban-Alliance combine forming a new government in Kabul. But the Taliban forces have held together and backed Omar. And the Alliance, suspicious of Pakistan trying to retain control of Afghanistan, refused outright to be part of such a plan.

In its second phase, small groups of specially trained American ground forces landed in Kandahar for a search and kill mission against bin Laden and his main commanders other than Omar. Meanwhile, in a major shift in its aerial bombing plan, US fighters began bombing frontline Taliban positions in key cities, including Kabul. The goal: to break the backbone of its military resistance into submission.

So cocky where the American fighters that a pair of F16 fighters screamed over the Bagram air base on Tuesday and dropped bombs on Taliban fortifications on the frontline. Embarrassingly for them, they also hit some Alliance positions. Local Alliance commanders frantically called up their generals to tell the US forces to be more careful.

In another significant move, the US widened the scope of the operation by bombarding Taliban positions in Herat, the sensitive western province bordering Iran. The Taliban Government accused the US of striking a hospital in the city and killing 100 patients, a claim refuted by US General Richard Myers, chairman, joint chiefs of staffs.

Warplanes also pounded Taliban positions on the road to the strategically important city of Mazar-e-Sharif in the north. If the US and Alliance forces could wrest control of the city from the Taliban, it could be used as a base to feed supply of military equipment to the northern regions. By last week there were indications that US jets were poised to strike other key northern provinces such as Kunduz and cities like Talukhan where the Northern Alliance had so far been challenging the Taliban forces unsuccessfully.

Importantly, there was a new sense of urgency in the US efforts. The pressure was being felt on several fronts. If the US wasn't able to make decisive gains within Afghanistan soon enough, then local anger and frustrations against the bombings will build up. Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf warned that other Muslim nations too would be angered if the war continued into the month of Ramzan beginning on November 17.

There was also the worry of an early winter. The Hindu Kush mountain ranges in northern Afghanistan have already had snowfall. The high road passes will soon become unusable and considerably hamper military movement for any major thrust against Kabul. US Secretary of State Colin Powell admitted as much last week when he said, "We need to see this matter resolved before the winter strikes as it makes our operations that much more difficult." Myers, however, hastened to clarify, "We are doing it in a measured way. It may take until next spring. It may take until next summer-it may take longer than that in Afghanistan." US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld added, "There are no time tables on this."

But clearly there are. British Prime Minister Tony Blair has already said, "The next few weeks will be the most testing time." Experts give the US led coalition around four weeks to put military, diplomatic and political pieces into place. If not, the campaign could get dangerously bogged down. Last week there was a flurry of activity on all fronts to bring the war to a quick and successful end.

On the political front, steps to conceive an alternative to the Taliban were hastened. There was talk of convening within the next fortnight the Loya Jirga, comprising the 120-member Shura or supreme council of tribal chieftains, to decide Afghanistan's future. In a deal hammered out before the bombings began, Afghanistan's former king Zahir Shah, who is heading the reconciliation committee, agreed to allow the Alliance to choose half the representatives of the council.

Last week, in the Panjshir Valley, it was political haggling more than military activity that kept key Alliance leaders busy. Its suave Interior Minister Yonus Quanooni, widely seen as the choice for the next prime minister, used all his negotiating skills to bring about an agreement on the names of the 60 chieftains they had to put forward. In Rome, Zahir Shah worked to finalise his list of candidates. By this week, the two sides are expected to meet and exchange lists. The idea is to build a credible political alternative before the big war in Afghanistan actually begins as well as create a climate for defections from the Taliban regime. As Quanooni told India Today, "A political alternative is critical. Our people must see that we are in a position to provide a government. There is no point in launching a major offensive before that."

MetroScape

Looking Glass

Mumbai Restaurant:
India Jones

Mumbai Puppetry Festival: Toccata

Bangalore Restaurant: Chung Wah

Kolkata Exhibition : Life Is Beautiful