Advantage Outsiders
With the balance tilted against it, the Taliban regime will soon find itself vanquished.

Lull Before The Storm
Amid calls for a quick and decisive end to the conflict, Afghanistan has been abuzz with talk of an imminent Northern Alliance ground war against the Taliban.

History's Pointers
The Soviet Union's 10 years campaign in Afghanistan — a conflict that led to a humiliating withdrawal and, some say, its eventual breakup
— can be a learning experience for
the US.

COVER STORY: FRONTLINE DESPATCH

Road To Kabul

	SHADOW OF THE GUN: A Northern Alliance soldier keeps vigil

With the political process rapidly gaining momentum, the military preparedness among the Alliance forces shifted into top gear. So far the Alliance has been waiting for the US bombardment to weaken the Taliban frontline positions. Striking before that would have involved risking higher casualties. The Alliance does not underestimate the Taliban's ability to fight against stiff odds.

The strategy worked out at a meeting of the Northern Alliance's top commanders in Panjshir last week was not to move against Kabul first. Instead, the focus of the attack ought to be to create a wide arc of resistance in key northern and western provinces before moving south to Kabul and Kandahar. The US forces are expected to bomb Taliban positions in these areas before the Alliance forces move in for ground attacks.

In the past month, from its headquarters in Khwaja Bahawudin, the Northern Alliance has been bolstering its firepower against all pockets of resistance. Helicopters are used to ferry guns and ammunition to remote provinces. Russia and Iran have stepped up their supplies of equipment though the Alliance claims it is buying them from wherever they are available. This past week, it seemed confident about its resources. "We are now ready to launch a decisive offensive on any front we choose," declared Attiqullah Baryalai, the Alliance's deputy defence minister.

In the coming weeks, fighting is expected to break out in all the key battle zones with a ferocity that is designed to bring the war to a much quicker end. The main focus of the Alliance attacks would be Herat, Bamiyan, Mazar-e-Sharif, Kunduz and Talukhan. If the Alliance is able to make substantial inroads in these cities and provinces then the Taliban's authority would be seriously challenged in the west and the north, which together account for over 50 per cent of the country's population.

Taking Mazar-e-Sharif will be crucial. Alliance forces headed by Uzbek generals Abdul Rashid Dostum and Ostad Ata launched attacks even before the US bombing began. But the Taliban forces have surprised them with their resilient defence. If the region rapidly falls to the US and Alliance forces then it would decisively change the tide of the war. It will be used as a base to provide military and other supplies for anti-Taliban forces. The Termez bridge across the Ommo river is expected to be opened so that supplies can be routed through Uzbekistan instead of neighbouring Tajikistan. Taking the area would also mean isolating the Taliban forces in Kunduz and Taxar provinces and would make the Alliance forces task of wresting control of them much easier.

Last week, the Alliance also began working on reopening the Salang tunnel linking the Panjshir Valley and Kabul with Mazar-e-Sharif, partially destroyed three years ago by retreating Taliban forces. This would cut down the journey from Mazar-e-Sharif to Kabul by at least three days.

The big decision is when to go for Kabul, whose fall would provide a symbolic message that the Taliban's days are numbered. Moving in too early before an alternative political structure is worked out would prove counterproductive. Especially if the Alliance forces, widely seen as representative of the minority communities in the country, take control of the capital.

Only twice in the past 100 years has someone from a community other than the majority Pashtuns ruled Afghanistan. In recent times, it was Burnahuddin Rabbani, president of the Alliance government and a Tajik, who ruled in the mid-1990s for a short period. That is why Zahir Shah, a Pashtun who is widely respected in the community, has been roped in to head the reconciliation process.

The Alliance plan at the moment is to launch an offensive against Kabul that would take them to the outskirts of the city, but not take control of it. That would wait till the campaign in the northern and western provinces are successful. Then it would only be a matter of weeks before the Taliban resistance caves in and its southern strongholds capitulate. Only then will Kabul be taken. The Shura convened by Zahir Shah is to be held in Kabul to give it national legitimacy.

There are major problems that could see things going awry. Pakistan, intent on retaining some control over Afghan affairs, may throw a spanner in the works. The ISI is still seen to be playing an active role among the Taliban commanders and may goad them into putting up a stiff resistance if Pakistan finds things not going its way.

There are also diplomatic hurdles to be crossed. Russia, China, India, Iran and the Central Asian republics all have their own interests in the region which have to be protected. As does the US and its allies. So a consensus has to be reached among these countries for any lasting solution to be worked out. As Baryalai observes, "In Afghanistan you can't be involved in half measure. There are no limits to how much you get pulled in. There are no quick-fix solutions." It is wise counsel that the US and the world should heed.

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