Advantage Outsiders
With the balance tilted against it, the Taliban regime will soon find itself vanquished.

Lull Before The Storm
Amid calls for a quick and decisive end to the conflict, Afghanistan has been abuzz with talk of an imminent Northern Alliance ground war against the Taliban.

History's Pointers
The Soviet Union's 10 years campaign in Afghanistan — a conflict that led to a humiliating withdrawal and, some say, its eventual breakup
— can be a learning experience for
the US.

COVER STORY: RUSSIAN EXPERIENCE

History's Pointers

In Soviet defeat lies the wisdom that America could utilise as it wages its war in scarred, yet resilient, Afghanistan

By Vladimir Mukhin and Mark Najarian in Moscow

IN SIGHT OF DEFEAT: Effective intelligence is essential for successful ground operations

Nemesis is an ugly word, vicious and wilful, decimating with impunity many an overweening autocrat and ambitious superpower. In an air thick with American vindication, so goes the unspoken thought: America's nemesis could well be lurking in the treacherous terrain of Afghanistan, among the war-hardy Taliban troops and the disparate ethnic structure of its society. The alarm stems from a country that learnt its lesson well in a 10-year campaign in Afghanistan: a conflict that led to 14,453 deaths, a humiliating withdrawal and, some say, the eventual breakup of the Soviet Union. So, is America treading the beaten track only to entrench itself deeper in the Afghan quagmire? Is it pursuing a prudent strategy to root out terrorism? And does it have a viable alternative to the Taliban? The answers may be elusive but those coming from the Russians are laced with credibility.

"The US seems to be repeating our mistakes," says General Makhmud Gareyev. "Before going in there, they should have decided who they must align with." He should know. Gareyev spent two years as chief military adviser to Afghan president M. Najibullah and was the head of the armed forces after Soviet troops withdrew in 1989. He has also authored books and articles on the Soviet experience in Afghanistan and is currently the president of the Russian Military Academy of Sciences.

Powell (left) with Moseiyev

"The Americans give the impression they are pinning their hopes on the Northern Alliance," says Gareyev, "but these troops could, at best, liberate provinces populated by Tajiks and Uzbeks. These minorities won't be able to control the whole of Afghanistan." The Pashtoons who make up over half the population won't accept this. And even if the US succeeds in removing the current Taliban regime, replacing it with "good Taliban", they will still face problems after the military campaign ends. Which is obvious in the rise of the anti-American sentiment in Pakistan and Afghanistan, says Gareyev. "After the bombings, religious people will become more passionate."

In which case, former Afghan king Zahir Shah would be a neutral figure who could get broad support, says Gareyev. But the US failed to inform him about the anti-terrorist operations even though the king is known to have opposed the bombings in Afghanistan.

"The bombing must stop," agrees Colonel Roman Sudjayev, as it is setting the Muslim world against the US. The Taliban is ready to sit at the negotiating table and talk about a coalition government, affirms the man who served in Afghanistan in 1987-88 as deputy head of a medical battalion. Once this happens, they will need economic aid and investment, so the US and other developed countries should prove to Afghanistan and other Muslim nations that they are friends by providing economic help.

"Only through peaceful means, through consensus, dialogue and good deeds will the US be able to root out Muslim terrorism in Afghanistan and the world," says Sudjayev who has also worked in command posts in the Defence and Emergency Situations ministries and is a leading researcher at the Institute for the Development of Social Partnership.

If rooting out the terrorist groups is the aim, says Gareyev, then there are ways of achieving this, but if the aim is to change the situation in the country and get rid of the Taliban, then this requires large-scale action. A military offensive may not be the best option considering the Taliban's history and the means they used to gain power in the first place. They assumed control of 90 per cent of the territory not through gun battles but by buying tribal and ethnic loyalties. According to Gareyev, if the Americans "realise how important it is to buy people and begin to give money to the anti-Taliban coalition, they'll be able to do in the terrorists more quickly".

"Afghanistan has its own customs and traditions," recounts the general citing an instance. Najibullah had so-called tribal regiments in his armed forces comprising members of a particular group or tribe. On a business trip to Shindant where one of the regiments was based, he discovered that the regiment had suddenly shifted allegiance to the mujahideen. "We had to bargain and persuade them to let us go by promising them arms," he says, underlining the need for the US to adopt alternative strategies.

General Mikhail Moiseyev agrees military action alone cannot defeat terrorism. "The whole world is fighting terrorism, not just the US," says the former head of the Russian military's General Headquarters (1991) and current Defence Ministry adviser and member of the government Commission on Social Problems of Servicemen. "We also need to take diplomatic and economic steps against terrorist organisations. Intelligence services also have a major role to play here."

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