Advantage Outsiders
With the balance tilted against it, the Taliban regime will soon find itself vanquished.

Lull Before The Storm
Amid calls for a quick and decisive end to the conflict, Afghanistan has been abuzz with talk of an imminent Northern Alliance ground war against the Taliban.

History's Pointers
The Soviet Union's 10 years campaign in Afghanistan — a conflict that led to a humiliating withdrawal and, some say, its eventual breakup
— can be a learning experience for
the US.

COVER STORY: RUSSIAN EXPERIENCE

Ground Realities

Especially in ground operations. "If troop positions are disguised or if they are hiding in caves, satellite intelligence won't find them," asserts Gareyev. Air strikes alone will not help the US catch all the terrorists even if they fight for many years because of the country's difficult terrain-mountains, deserts and caves. So effective intelligence is a must if the US is to make progress on the ground. The US special forces tried to carry out a number of ground operations, but I think they were unsuccessful, speculates Gareyev. So while the US may be able to destroy stockpiles, groups of troops, command points, anti-aircraft defenses and artillery positions, it is impossible to track an individual down as he moves across towns through irrigation canals. Nearly every town has hundreds of kilometres of such canals three to four metres deep and are covered with earth, reveals Gareyev.

"The Americans seem to be repeating our mistakes." General Makhmud Gareyev, former adviser to Afghan president Najibullah

The ground operations may also be affected by the onset of winter though this is unlikely to affect the air strikes. "Winter isn't a problem for modern aircraft or missiles," says Gareyev. "The air strikes will continue and there will be support for the anti-Taliban forces. As for continued operations during Ramzan (in November), the Pentagon hasn't taken a decision yet," he adds. Moiseyev believes the Taliban and its opponents are unlikely to fight on the ground during the Muslim holy month. And though Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf has spoken in favour of halting the bombing during Ramzan, US Secretary of State Colin Powell has put off the decision saying America would take into account not just military but also diplomatic considerations.

Sudjayev, meanwhile, is worried about the length of the military operations. "I think the anti-terrorist operations have already become drawn out. Active fighting can probably get under way only in late winter or early spring once the Islamic holidays are over and the snow melts," he speculates.

As for the success that America is likely to achieve in waging its war against terrorism in Afghanistan, Gareyev says, "I think the US can have an impact on Afghanistan as a base for terrorism but it won't be able to liquidate all the terrorists." Bombing is not enough to fight terrorism, says the general, the root of evil needs to be eradicated. Terrorism is big business, with drug production in Afghanistan alone raking in millions of dollars, much of which goes to Osama bin Laden. So tackling terrorism entails locating the sources and organisers of the drug trade.

The problem also lies in people's perception of US ideology: many believe it wants to enhance its prosperity at the expense of other countries, and to some extent, this is responsible for terrorism, surmises Gareyev.

The country's unilateral military action is also a cause for concern among several nations, says Moiseyev. While Russia condemned the NATO aggression against Yugoslavia, it is supporting the US operations against the terrorist bases in Afghanistan. In 10 years of post-Soviet history, Russia has not conducted any military operations abroad except for peacekeeping missions in the Balkans, Sierra Leone and the CIS. "But these operations were all planned and implemented by the UN and the collective decision-making bodies of the CIS," says Moiseyev. "Russia only implemented their decisions. The US, on the other hand, sometimes plans military campaigns and acts as it sees fit. This causes concern in the world community."

Moiseyev, however, is all for supporting forces opposed to the current regime in Kabul. "I think the US and Russia should actively support the anti-Taliban forces to help them clear the country of religious fanatics."

The nature of impact that such an exercise will have on Afghanistan is a matter of speculation. But "history shows that any attempts to establish strong central power in Afghanistan end in failure," says Gareyev. The Tajiks and Uzbeks should have a certain degree of autonomy with the Pashtoons taking the leading role, he believes. "I don't think we will see an ethnic group trying to secede because this would mean the war will never end. The Pashtoons won't let Afghanistan be carved." In his book The Afghan Harvest, he quotes Engels, who said of the Afghans: "Only their unbridled hatred of state power and their love of personal independence prevents them from becoming a powerful nation."

Despite this, says Sudjayev, "No one can beat the Afghans." And the longer the war continues against the Taliban, the fewer allies America will have left in Afghanistan, he adds. Perhaps America should pay heed. Ten years, after all, is a long time to learn lessons in defeat.

—with Riju D. Mehta

MetroScape

Looking Glass

Mumbai Restaurant:
India Jones

Mumbai Puppetry Festival: Toccata

Bangalore Restaurant: Chung Wah

Kolkata Exhibition : Life Is Beautiful