Advantage Outsiders
With the balance tilted against it, the Taliban regime will soon find itself vanquished.

Lull Before The Storm
Amid calls for a quick and decisive end to the conflict, Afghanistan has been abuzz with talk of an imminent Northern Alliance ground war against the Taliban.

History's Pointers
The Soviet Union's 10 years campaign in Afghanistan — a conflict that led to a humiliating withdrawal and, some say, its eventual breakup
— can be a learning experience for
the US.

COVER STORY: STRATEGY

Advantage Outsiders

With the balance tilted against it, the Taliban will soon find itself vanquished

By W.P.S. Sidhu in New York

No plan survives contact with the enemy.

— Carl von Clausewitz

	OVERSIGHT: Bush has failed to muster an opposing force in south Afghanistan

The nature of warfare has changed dramatically since this line was penned during the Napoleonic wars of the 19th century, but the unpredictability of warfare has not. Military history is replete with instances of the best-laid plans going awry and formidable forces crumbling before unlikely adversaries. In this respect, Afghanistan has an unassailable record as a giant-slayer: it frustrated the Mughal empire, humbled the British and brought the Soviet Union to its knees. This might tempt pundits to foretell the victory of the Taliban-Al Qaida partnership over the US-led combine in the current conflict. But war is an unpredictable business-it would be rash to forecast such an outcome.

What is clear, however, is that several factors tilt the balance against the Taliban-Al Qaida alliance-and none of them has to do with the degradation of conventional military power by the American bombing. First, in all the previous episodes the Afghan people were, more or less, united against the "outsider", be it Mughal, British or Russian. Today, that unity of purpose is clearly lacking, and moderate Afghans may well support a victor who can provide a modicum of peace and stability. Secondly, unlike the strategic depth provided to the mujahideen in their war against the Soviets, the Taliban is bottled up in Afghanistan by the forced alliance between Islamabad and Washington.

To increase pressure on the Taliban and having realised the limitations of its aerial bombardment campaign-pilots ran out of targets within three days-the US-led combine launched the first limited airborne commando raid. Conducted on Mullah Mohammed Omar's house in Kandahar and the nearby airfield, the raid had three objectives: it demonstrated how to provide force protection deep in enemy territory, explored the possibility of using the same airport for future operations and warned the Taliban that the US was willing to take the fight to them. But without specific and up-to-the-minute intelligence-which can only be derived from human intelligence sources-such raids are likely to remain unreliable.

In the north, the US turned to its new-found friends in the Northern Alliance to play two roles. The first, to undertake probing attacks against Taliban troops around Kabul and Mazar-e-Sharif, and lure them to concentrate on the frontline, thus providing a more effective target for US fighter aircraft. The limitation of this tactic, however, became evident when some US bombs fell close to Northern Alliance positions. The second role of the Alliance is to launch frontal ground attacks on Taliban strongholds. This will cost the outnumbered rebels precious lives but will keep US casualties low.

While these tactics may give the impression of a well thought out military operation, they are, in fact, the result of improvisation and poor cooperation. For instance, although the US is willing to use the Northern Alliance in this dual role, it prefers to depend on its own technical means to determine targets. Consequently, the targets struck often do not facilitate an advance by the Northern Alliance.

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