Advantage Outsiders
With the balance tilted against it, the Taliban regime will soon find itself vanquished.

Lull Before The Storm
Amid calls for a quick and decisive end to the conflict, Afghanistan has been abuzz with talk of an imminent Northern Alliance ground war against the Taliban.

History's Pointers
The Soviet Union's 10 years campaign in Afghanistan — a conflict that led to a humiliating withdrawal and, some say, its eventual breakup
— can be a learning experience for
the US.

COVER STORY: STRATEGY

Commando Strikes

Washington's encirclement strategy, though impressive on paper, is marred by a failure to muster even a token force of Pashtoons opposed to the Taliban to launch a ground assault from the south. This may give the Taliban the option of going underground in the relative safety of the south. Given the limited effectiveness of commando strikes against well-dispersed troops, the US may be forced to launch ground operations from Pakistan into south Afghanistan, an option unacceptable to Islamabad at present.

THE WEATHER Chilling Portents

NATURE AS ALLY: The harsh Afghan winter will test the resilence of the US troops The disturbances rising from the Caspian and Black Sea region and sweeping across the mighty Hindu Kush, Karakoram and Himalayan ranges are suddenly the focus of the Pentagon's attention. These could force the US to redefine its military objectives in Afghanistan, at least for the next four months. The western disturbances are accompanied by chilly winds, clouds, rain and even snow, which could affect the US' optical guided weapons such as laser-guided bombs (GBU-28s). Inclement weather conditions will also hit air surveillance and electronic warfare systems and curtail unmanned aerial vehicle sorties. Only weapons that have on-board GPS such as the Tomahawk cruise missiles won't be disturbed. Among troops sub-zero temperatures cause energy loss, reduced dexterity and grip strength and frostbite. Osama bin Laden can wait, General Winter looks likely to be the US main adversary now.

The impending arrival of winter too is a critical factor. Although Pentagon planners are confident the world's most sophisticated military machine can withstand Afghanistan's harsh winter, this claim is yet to be validated. So the US has stepped up efforts to capture Mazar-e-Sharif and Kabul before winter to secure a foothold for a possibly sustained operation.

The final outcome of the confrontation may be uncertain, but there is no doubt the battle against the Taliban will soon be over. The war on terrorism, however, has only just begun.

(The writer is an associate with the International Peace Academy,
New York)

MetroScape

Looking Glass

Mumbai Restaurant:
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