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COVER STORY: WAR ON TERRORISM
Is A Quick Victory Possible?
Out there it is
a case of ridges and gorges and die-hard guerrillas. After weeks of hit-and-fly,
it is time for the real thing-the action scenes without special effects.
In the admitted absence of solid information on the whereabouts of bin
Laden or Mullah Mohammad Omar, what a British expert calls "the quick
pinprick operation" is likely to be a long haul. As K. Santhanam,
director, Institute of Defence Studies and Analyses, Delhi, says, "It
is not a quicky war. The effectiveness of the ground operations, supported
by proper battle damage assessment, will determine the next phases. The
convergence of political and military objectives alone can decide when
the war will end."
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THE HUMAN STORY: This injured baby boy made it to the
front pages across the world
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Since such a convergence is not happening, it
is not going to be a winter tale with a happy ending. This from General
Richard Myers, chairman of the US joint chiefs of staff: "I think
it is going to be long, hard-fought conflict, and it will be global in
scale. It won't be just military. It's going to be all the instruments
of our national power with our friends and allies. And the fact that it
could last several years or many years or maybe our lifetimes would not
surprise me."
This is philosophy, not realism. The military
reality on the ground is conditioned not only by the possible entry of
US troops but by weather and ethnicity. The treacherous Afghan winter
won't bring a chilling halt to American operations: set against the Taliban's
foot-soldiers in the snow will be shoot-and-scoot Americans blessed by
the awesome technology of mobility and communications. An American official
was quoted as saying, "Snow trails are easy to spot by satellites."
In plain language, it means a greater role for
the special operation forces, a role demonstrated by the devastating accuracy
with which the brass of the Pakistani-dominated Harkat-ul-Mujahideen was
killed by a missile strike in Kandahar. "The US is likely to pursue
a two-pronged approach," says Andrew Koch, the Washington bureau
chief of Jane's Defence Weekly. "At one level it will continue with
the air strikes so as to weaken the Taliban for the Northern Alliance.
The second leg of the strategy would be the use of special operation forces
to assist in surveillance and intelligence gathering about the Al Qaida
network. It will be determined largely by circumstances."
The dirty work seems reserved for the Northern Alliance. Yet, the US does
not know what to make of these sturdy Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks whose
antipathy to the Taliban is primarily tribal. Says former Indian chief
of air staff S.K. Kaul: "There appears to be no clear cut military
objective in the US mind. There will be pressure from Pakistan to stop
bombing during Ramzan and the US has not extended full support to the
Northern Alliance's march to Kabul."
Actually, that is not entirely correct. The
US appears to have bought over Uzbek warlord Rashid Dostum with an assurance
of $50 million in weapons and is backing his assault on Mazar-e-Sharif.
The fall of that northern town will help the US establish a bridgehead
inside Afghanistan and compensate for Pakistan's reluctance to go that
far. The utility of the Northern Alliance extends to a military dimension
too. Most of its bases are in mountainous areas-the terrain the plains
Taliban aren't exactly comfortable in.
But there are other imponderables. The optimism
of those who believe that treachery will prevail in Afghanistan-like it
did during the Great Game of the 19th century-may turn out to be facile.
Ideally, the so-called "moderate" Taliban should succumb to
the lure of Pakistan and defect to the winning side. Unfortunately, the
Taliban isn't a rag-tag tribal regime. It is a committed army of madarsa-indoctrinated
Islamists who believe God is on its side. It will not only fight stubbornly,
it will make the conditions very difficult for a meaningful Pashtoon defection
to the ranks of either former king Zahir Shah or Pir Syed Ahmed Gailani,
the tribal chief who has been blessed by Pakistan in Peshawar.
The proponents of a broad-based interim government
in Kabul have not only the intractable opposition of the Taliban to confront,
they have to factor in Pakistani subterfuge. Islamabad will do everything
in its power to ensure that Mullah Omar's successor is also willing to
give it the "strategic depth" it secured in 1996. That, however,
is unacceptable to Russia, Iran and, for all that it matters, India.
This competitive veto may leave the US with
no choice other than to get more deeply involved in Afghanistan's future.
That would be great news for the Taliban. The Islamists are setting the
stage for a protracted guerrilla war. There are enough tunnels and mines
to make the war bloodier for America. Rising civilian casualty is good
news for the mullahs and bin Laden, not for the fighters of enduring freedom.
The war in the name of humanity cannot afford a humanitarian sideshow.
Which means Afghanistan is a bloody show that seems destined to run and
run.
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