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AFGHANISTAN: WAR DIARY
WAR UPDATE
SO NEAR AND YET SO FAR
 AFGHANISTAN
AFTER A MONTH OF US BOMBINGS
Maroof Raza, a defence analyst, is Visiting Professor
at Middlesex University and a Visiting Fellow at King's College, London.
This week, the added dimension to America's
air campaign across Afghanistan was the carpet bombing, but it is clear
that the United States has run out of targets. The Taliban's air force
was destroyed in the first week itself. Static ammunition and fuel dumps
continue to be the targets but the Taliban's tanks and armoured vehicles
are hard to detect unless they move during an air raid. Besides, with
the Taliban's forces resorting to taking shelter among civilian population,
US bombs have ended up hitting civilians and even the troops of the Northern
Alliance in a campaign where battle lines remain blurred and the targets
are far from obvious.
The US campaign is further hampered due to the
lack of consensus on a political alternative to the Taliban. The absence
of synergy between the diplomatic, political and military objectives has
led to a stalemate on the ground. The march of the Northern Alliance remained
stalled at Bagram, north of Kabul, and around Mazar-e-Sharif, for want
of US military reinforcements. Armed with Soviet era T-55 and T-62 tanks,
Skot, BTR and BMP armoured vehicles but virtually no air power, the Alliance
is unable on its own to overrun the Taliban's defences. Till date, the
Alliance has received up to $45 million worth of military hardware from
Russia, but little support from the US.
AMERICA
WHAT A GROUND ATTACK COULD ACHIEVE
The current deployment of US and British troops provides
options only for commando operations and not a major air-land campaign,
as was seen during the Gulf War. For that, the US would need Pakistan's
permission, besides a force that is close to 2,00,000.Most importantly,
it needs a willingness to fight a war on Afghan soil which the US is reluctant
to do.
 Militarily
America's top priority appears to be the creation of safe areas, even
if they are small ones, to enable the special forces to land. Once in,
these forces are likely to carry out search-and-destroy missions in all
important cities and towns within Afghanistan and to secure air strips
to support the Northern Alliance fighters.
 The
Anglo-US line-up of commandos is impressive. It includes the famed SEALS
and the SAS, Delta Force, Rangers and Royal Marine Commandos. They are
trained to operate against severe odds. And backed by Kevlar body armour,
night-sight M-4 carbines, hand-held radios and global positioning gear,
they can fight in any condition, anywhere in the world.
 The
Special Forces could be deployed in Afghanistan either from air bases
in Pakistan like Jacobabad, Dal Bandin or Pasni or from the former Soviet
air base at Qarshi in southern Uzbekistan. Yet another option would be
to launch the forces in small groups from US aircraft carriers like the
USS Carl Vinson and the USS Enterprise stationed in the Arabian Sea.
 Flying
by helicopters, under cover of darkness and close to the ground to evade
possible Stinger missile attacks, the Special Forces could swiftly capture
an airfield or destroy several targets, all in a few hours, before returning
to base. The 2,000 US soldiers now stationed in Uzbekistan could be deployed
to protect captured airfields.
 The
captured airfields-near Kabul or Mazar-e-Sharif-would be protected by
the troops till a temporary military airfield that would allow larger
aircrafts to land with troops and reinforcements is speedily constructed.
These forces have one limitation, though. They have little or no training
in a terrain similar to Afghanistan's. And that can make a big difference.
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