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DIPLOMACY: PM'S TOUR

High Image No Presence

Vajpayee doesn't have to convince the West of India's importance. He has to counter Musharraf's persistent claim that it is time to talk Kashmir.

By Anil Padmanabhan in Washington

EVERYTHING TO DECLARE: Vajpayee will emphasise India's stand on cross-border terrorism

Just before the special UN General Assembly session in New York on November 10, US President George W. Bush will host two independent summit meetings. While Indian Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee will be feted at the White House (and possibly even Capitol Hill), Bush's engagement with Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf can best be described as a working meeting on the sidelines of the UN session.

Both meetings are dictated by the war in Afghanistan. One to "placate" a potential partner in South Asia after the US cosied up to Pakistan following the September 11 attacks and the other with someone who is seen as an indispensable ally against the Taliban. While India has assumed a new prominence in the US perception given the volatile situation in Pakistan, Islamabad's cooperation is considered decisive for winning the war.

When Pakistan joined the US-led coalition, it was widely believed that Musharraf would extract American support on the Kashmir issue as a quid pro quo. India felt sidelined and cheated by circumstances. Now, it seems the US is making up. "We want to reassure India that it won't be excluded at the expense of Pakistan," says Dennis Kux, former US ambassador to Pakistan. Arguing in the same vein, a US State Department official says, "The relationship with India is important. The President wanted to meet the prime minister and we were working towards it at the annual UN meeting, which got deferred due to the WTC attacks."

The summit meeting between Vajpayee and Bush does not have a structured agenda, but is expected to focus on international terrorism, besides reviewing bilateral issues. The meeting is also expected to be a launch pad for Indo-US military cooperation. "It is the first time that there is a convergence of strategic interests between the two countries," says Indian ambassador to the US Lalit Mansingh.

It is clear that this new "convergence of strategic interests" will not only survive September 11 but thrive on it. For the US, the biggest worry after Osama bin Laden and anthrax is an accidental nuclear war in South Asia. The widespread pro-Taliban demonstrations in Pakistan aggravate these fears. The last thing that the US wants at this juncture is a fundamentalist Pakistan at war with India, with the Pak nuclear button in the hands of a mad mullah.

As a result, the US will be seeking some sort of a rapprochement between India and Pakistan, even offer a solution to the Kashmir problem. "An outcome of the current conflict will be US mediation on Kashmir," says Teresita C. Schaffer, director of the South Asia Programme of the Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies. As a State Department official said, "We are interested in a dialogue between India and Pakistan."

For the moment, however, India has ruled out any talks with Pakistan, even brushed aside an invite for a Vajpayee-Musharraf meeting in New York. Justifying the decision, Mansingh says, "We said no because Pakistan is not willing to discuss anything but Kashmir. For us the core issue is cross-border terrorism. Until Pakistan acknowledges a wider agenda, it is meaningless to talk." That assertion is fine for a domestic audience but to many international ears it smacks of cussedness. India doesn't appear to have argued its case too well.

The Indian response is shaped by Agra. Despite the high expectations of a breakthrough, Musharraf kept on talking Kashmir. The General, who wants to project himself as a peacemaker to the West, is under fire from fundamentalists at home. He wants a New York meeting to reassure his countrymen that he won't budge on Kashmir. That will help restore some of his lost Islamic sheen.

Delhi wants the US to recognise Pakistan's role in terrorism in Kashmir and the need for India's hope of a multi-ethnic, broad-based government in Kabul minus all shades of Taliban. However, chances of the US nailing Pakistan on terrorism in Kashmir appear remote.

Pakistan diplomats hope the US will help the dialogue to resume. "India is not doing Pakistan any favour by resolving the differences. After all, half the Indian Army is bogged down in Kashmir," says Zamir Akram, Pakistan's deputy chief of mission in Washington. Clearly, Pakistan plans a repeat of Agra in New York. That won't happen but a polite handshake and an exchange of courtesies in New York are not ruled out. Vajpayee is unlikely to risk a meaningful encounter with Musharraf, talking Kashmir on American soil. The political symbolism is all wrong.

For the moment, dialogue is likely to remain a one-way process. The one doing all the talking before the world is the General, who, in the propaganda war, has emerged as the Great Communicator. In his frequent interviews and joint press conferences with visiting western leaders, Kashmir is a recurring word. In the propaganda war Musharraf has used the K word with maximum effect-sometimes in the garb of reason and occasionally with crude belligerence. A much-delayed overseas visit could give his counterpart an opportunity to regain his lost voice and show the world that India can combine stability and size with a presence.

-with Shishir Gupta

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