STRAINED SMILES: Confidence-building is Zhu's top priority

Prose acquires a marked tendency to lapse into poetry when China and Pakistan define their relationship. From being "all-weather friends" the two are now in an alliance that is "higher than the mountains and deeper than the seas". The fond phraseology, however, has an equally marked tendency to dry up when it comes to India and China. "Mistrust" may be an accurate word to describe the Indo-Chinese ties, but then diplomacy believes in leaving the unkind word unsaid. Especially when the Chinese premier decides to undertake his maiden visit to India.

The six-day Indian trip of Chinese Prime Minister Zhu Rongji, beginning Janurary 13, comes at a disquieting hour: the subcontinent is bristling with Indo-Pakistani border tensions, and reports that Beijing has supplied military hardware to Islamabad has only fuelled mistrust. Expectedly then, terrorism is scheduled to dominate the discussions between the two countries.

Of late, China has made the right noises on terrorism as far as India is concerned. It described the December 13 Parliament attack as a "terrorist act" at the meeting of the Shanghai Six on January 7. It also supports the Indian draft convention on terrorism at the UN, with President Jiang Zemin assuring President K.R. Narayanan that China shared Indian concerns on the issue. Nothing unusual there as China faces Uighur terrorism in its strategic Xinjiang province. But even though Chinese Uighurs were found bearing Afghan and Pakistani addresses on their calling cards, the two countries disagree on the issue of cross-border terrorism. As for Kashmir, Beijing continues to refer to it as a "core issue" between India and Pakistan, strongly advocating dialogue and restraint.

Despite China's perfunctory support on terrorism Delhi is justifiably mistrustful of its intentions. At the same time, however, it does need Beijing's cooperation to sort out the border issue and address its security concerns. China, on the other hand, is looking for strengthening cooperation with India and Russia in the backdrop of the US' long-term interests in Afghanistan and Central Asian republics, well aware that even a strategic asset like Pakistan cannot act as a counterweight for the US' influence.

WARY PARTNERS WHAT INDIA WANTS » China should stop supplying military hardware, missiles and nuclear gadgetry to Pakistan. » It shouldn't heighten threat perception on India's eastern front with the Indian forces engaged in the west. » It should pressure Pakistan to halt cross-border terrorism against India, including in Jammu & Kashmir. » It should take urgent steps to resolve the long-standing border issue with India. » It should allow access to Indian manufactured goods via the Chumbi Valley through the Siliguri corridor.   CHINA'S WISHLIST » India should exercise restraint and resume dialogue with Pakistan, with Kashmir as the core issue. » India should clamp down on the Dalai Lama's followers and not permit "anti-China" demonstrations. » It should sign the Bilateral Investment and Promotion Agreement for industrial investments. » China's Eastern Airlines should be allowed to operate twice a week to tap the Indian market. » It should be allowed to enhance collaboration with Indian knowledge-based and info-tech industries.

Zhu's visit will see the two countries go beyond the Indo-Pak situation and aim for progress on the long-standing border dispute. On December 17, 2001, the two sides exchanged maps on the least contentious central sector. The move is crucial in building confidence as both the armies are now aware of each other's positions and their versions of the Line of Actual Control (LAC). During Zhu's visit, the two sides are expected to announce a similar exercise on the more controversial western sector in Ladakh and Aksai Chin.

There are eight major areas of contention in the western sector and six in the eastern sector. The western sector includes areas between the Karakoram pass and Chipchap river north of Leh, Galwan river-Kongka pass and Chushul-Spanggur-Rezang La area south-east of Leh. While the LAC in the western sector is based more or less on Chinese perceptions, the line runs along Indian perceptions in the eastern sector in Arunachal Pradesh's Tawang division. China has reportedly proposed adopting a more flexible attitude along the western sector if India responds in kind to its demands on the eastern sector.

India, however will consider Zhu's visit successful only if Beijing addresses its concerns on the supply of military hardware and nuclear equipment to Pakistan. Delhi conveyed its distress on the growing Sino-Pak defence cooperation during the meeting of Lt-General Zhang Li, deputy chief of the People's Liberation Army, with the Indian Defence Ministry officials in December last year. Notwithstanding Pakistan's denials, China has been helping it with its nuclear missile programme and even sent military supplies, including vehicles for Shaheen II missiles, to Islamabad recently.

India is worried that a Chinese tilt towards Pakistan will fuel an arms race in the subcontinent and increase Delhi's threat perception on the eastern front. Though Pakistan boasts of Chinese assurance on help in "all eventualities", Delhi has conveyed to Beijing that any move to beef up the eastern front when Indian forces are mobilised on the western borders will be viewed adversely. Clearly, India has not forgotten Chinese movement in the western sector during the 1999 Kargil war and Beijing's calls for a cease-fire in order to freeze Pakistani occupation in Drass and Batalik sectors.

There is, however, scant optimism that Zhu's visit will yield any breakthroughs. Says Sinologist Brahma Chellaney of the Centre for Policy Research: "The two-faced Chinese game has to stop before substantial progress can be made by the two sides. Despite the border talks going on for more than 22 years, even the LAC is not defined."

The mistrust transcends the border issue. With a high rate of growth fuelling the two economies, ambitious Chinese and Indian entrepreneurs are virtually slugging it out in the same markets. China, with its Kunming initiative, and India with its Mekong-Ganga Cooperation, are trying to reach out to the ASEAN markets by promoting mutual economic and infrastructure development and energy security. The two are currently in a race to forge closer trade ties with Myanmar, Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia. While China has an edge in cheap and mass production of consumer goods, Beijing feels the heat in technology-intensive areas such as information technology and knowledge-based industries. Little wonder then that the two are still to set aside differences on the Bilateral Investment and Trade Promotion Agreement. India wants its entrepreneurs to get the same treatment that China accords to its industrial ventures without any additional conditionalities. The pact will now be discussed threadbare by the Indian Commerce and Trade Ministry with China's minister of foreign trade and economic cooperation.

The two sides are also expected to sign protocols on science and technology, space cooperation and civil aviation resources, besides exchanging data on the Brahmaputra river basin and the WTO issue. After all, India does not want a repeat of the 2000 flash floods or inundation by cheap Chinese electronic goods. Being wary is a healthy trait to nurture where China is concerned.optimistic now." India hopes he's right.