For 44 years from 1947-91, India was a regulated and controlled economy averaging an annual GDP growth rate of 3.5 per cent. From 1991- 96, as we reformed and changed, switched to a bigger role for the private sector and to an environment of competition, the annual GDP growth rate jumped to 7 per cent. But before we could savour this new heady wine, high interest rates, credit squeeze and political changes brought growth down to 5 per cent. However, after the February '99 budget, we recovered, climbing back to 6 per cent. Today we're headed back to 7 per cent and beyond. But this new wave has also brought huge competition.

What are the lessons for the future? What are the challenges and opportunities? Where are we going? Let me answer the last question first because it is the easiest. I am not sure whether anyone has an inkling of where we are going. So we have to accept that the future is uncertain, that the future is one of rapid change, that the future has little security in the traditional sense and is, therefore, going to be unpredictable and exciting. I, for one, think it's exciting because of the change factor.

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BALANCE SHEET » Bio- and info-tech will have a global impact on economy. » Corporate governance will be the key to raising capital. » Falling population will lead to economic crises in western nations. » Hiring futurologists will become top priority among companies.

The lesson that I have learnt in the past few years is that technology is going to constantly speed up this change.
If the '90s changed fast, the changes between 2000 and 2010 will be faster. Clearly, biotechnology will reshape agriculture the world over. Which means that the nature
of jobs will change. There will be a huge impact on skills and employment patterns, and this impact will be felt all over the world. I say this with particular feeling because India is an agricultural nation and the transformation ahead of us on account of biotechnology is immense.

A NEW ERA: Technology promises to reshape agriculture and the nature of jobs as we know it

The other facet of technology is, of course, Information Technology (IT). It is already reshaping the world's economies and has created a new powerhouse in India, especially in the four southern states. The IT-related services have linked India with the US, Europe and Japan. It is changing jobs, lives, opportunities-the future of a large body of people. IT will do more. It is a little known fact that Uttar Pradesh-considered one of the most backward states-is today No. 4 in software exports. The same can happen anywhere. All you need is a computer and a telephone.

Professor Michael Dertouzous of MIT conducted some interesting research. According to a thesis he presented to the Confederation of Indian Industry, India can earn $1 trillion (approximately Rs 47,00,000 crore) annually by providing e-services to the world, especially to the US. And what is it that we need to earn this? The answer is so obvious, it's shocking: the ability to write and speak English. According to Dertouzous, India has 50 million people who do just that and their earning capacity is US $20,000 (Rs 9.4 lakh) per year-$1 trillion. The new ballgame in the world is the export of services from a home base. And English is the key. Plus, of course, the telecom infrastructure.

Information Technology is giving a new thrust to the world's economies and has created a new powerhouse in India.

Let me go back to technology. Monsanto has developed a plant which grows plastic. Unlike conventional plastic, it is completely biodegradable and elastic, and commercial use is targeted for 2003. What, then, happens to petrochemical plants? Similarly, genetically manufactured ethanol is likely to give petroleum products a run for their money in the next decade. There are plants today which grow coloured cotton. When commercialised, what will happen to the textile intermediary business? This has serious implications for business everywhere, whether in a developing or a developed country. In fact, I feel the developing nations have an advantage and can leapfrog with the right strategy and clarity. Besides, because of the rapidly emerging trends in information economy, Internet is making possible the "anytime, anywhere" paradigm. Inefficiencies in the way we run our lives and our businesses are being removed.

Let me talk about another dimension. The West is facing a decline in population and by 2015, one-third of its people will be above 65 years of age. This is double the current figure. Sweden currently spends 65 per cent of its GDP on social security. Germany spends 56 per cent. Hence, they have high tax rates. Young people are paying high taxes to maintain the old and as a result can't afford children. These economies are likely to face major crises in the future.

What does all this mean for India? Biotechnology will make rural people redundant but it will help us banish hunger and poverty. The Internet will destroy many businesses but enable us to acquire information economy and bypass much of the industrial economy. A declining population will result in excess manufacturing capacity in the West and subsequent export of their goods to our markets. Factories will also be relocated-a process that has already begun. Opportunities in their own countries will decline. But they will have funds for investment-in our country. The message is simple. Every threat is an opportunity.

Three more dimensions need to be highlighted. First, corporations will have to govern and manage themselves differently. Transparency will be the key and corporate governance will be the mantra to raise capital. Secondly, human resource will be scarce. Attracting and retaining people will require effort and youth will need to be trusted and empowered.

Another aspect is hiring people to help with the future strategy. British Telecom has a futurologist now. Hindustan Lever Ltd executives spent six months at Unilever just pondering on the future. Therefore, investment in education and knowledge and making it the top priority will determine the future. We have to accept that rapid change is the order of the day. We have to accept both the threat and the challenge-as also the big opportunity. There will be discontinuities. There will be pain. It's already there. If we have the vision and the courage,
we can emerge as the leaders of tomorrow. We can-because we have it in us to
reinvent ourselves.