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| BARE FACT: India and Pakistan disagree
on the path to a dialogue |
On the sidelines
of the Commonwealth Ministerial Committee on Terrorism meeting in London
last week, External Affairs Minister Jaswant Singh, for the first time
perhaps, admitted that there was "considerable fall" in cross-border
infiltration. And he attributed this to "heavy snowfall in Kashmir
and Jhelum valleys". Elimination of cross-border infiltration is
one of the key Indian "expectations" from Pakistan before Delhi
takes a decision on lessening troops on the border.
While India's official stance is that it is still waiting for General
Pervez Musharraf to translate his words against "terrorism in the
name of Kashmir" on ground, the private assessment is that cross-border
infiltration has fallen and there has been reduction of violence in the
Valley. Communication intercepts along the Line of Control (LoC) reveal
that orders for clamping down on infiltration "for the time being"
have been issued to terrorist groups in Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir. Though
radio intercepts of terrorist groups indicate Islamabad's instructions
will be reviewed after 90 days, Delhi fears that Pakistan may go back
to its "old ways" once the snow starts melting on the high mountain
passes in Jammu and Kashmir and the state gets into election mode. As
a result, India has linked troop withdrawal on the borders with "visible"
improvement on ground. "We are waiting to see and as soon as we detect
improvement we will begin to de-escalate the situation," said National
Security Adviser Brajesh Mishra during his recent visit to Paris.
Also, both Delhi and Islamabad are under pressure from the US to bring
down tension on the border. Though the US understands the Indian position
of "visible improvement", it has suggested, as a first step
towards lowering tensions, the two sides pull back their strike aircraft
from forward deployments. This pressure is partly responsible for the
Pakistani proposal for talks on phased withdrawal of troops.
Delhi is yet to decide on pulling back troops. Its assessment is that
the fall in infiltration levels is due to the mobilisation of its armed
forces. It is still to be convinced of the Pakistani motives given the
fact that Islamabad has linked withdrawal with a comprehensive dialogue
on Kashmir and other issues and wants more UN observers to monitor the
LoC. The Indian leadership will be closely monitoring Musharraf's speech
on February 5-Kashmir Solidarity Day-and its response from the terrorist
groups such as the Lashkar-e-Toiba (LeT) and the Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM).
India has taken note of US President George W. Bush's State of the Union
address where he labelled the Pakistan-based JeM as part of the "terror
underworld" and praised Musharraf's "strong leadership".
Delhi doesn't agree with the US on the General's leadership qualities.
LeT diaries for the year 2002 were being sold in Islamabad bookshops after
Musharraf banned the organisation in his January 12 speech. The diary
has pictures depicting the symbolic destruction of Israel, Russia, the
US and India. It even shows a knife stabbing a symbol of Indo-Israeli
friendship.
Still, Delhi is giving a serious thought on a meeting of the director-generals
of military operations of the two sides later this month to set up a mechanism
to monitor infiltration on the LoC. Another proposal envisages a regular
interface between the intelligence and military establishments of the
two sides.
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CURRENT
ISSUE FEB 11, 2002
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