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The
distinguished economist Jagdish Bhagwati, while reviewing the widely acclaimed
A Future Perfect: The Challenge and Hidden Promise of Globalisation by
John Micklethwait and Adrian Wooldridge, wondered whether books on globalisation
are beginning to be subject to the law of diminishing marginal utility.
Bhagwati was writing in Foreign Affairs in July/August 2000 when, amidst
a vast outpouring, Thomas Friedman's celebrated The Lexus and the Olive
Tree was also capturing world attention. In recent months, the literature
on globalisation has mushroomed even further but Bhagwati's fears are
still unfounded.
Globalisation and History by Kevin O'Rourke and Jeffrey Williamson traces
the evolution of the 19th century Atlantic economy that was marked by
an explosion in trade flows, capital movements and migration. But the
1920s and the 1930s saw a dramatic reversal which the duo, who are well-known
economists at University College, Dublin, and at Harvard University respectively,
call "deglobalisation". This led to an increase in trade protectionism,
a breakdown of international capital markets and an end to mass and easy
migration. They reject the conventional view that the deglobalisation
of the inter-war decades was a consequence of World War I. Instead, they
ascribe it to the political backlash in response to the actual or perceived
distributional effects of globalisation itself.
Harold
James' The End of Globalisation: Lessons from the Great Depression is
a book of great scholarship. James, a highly distinguished professor of
history at Princeton University of the US, examines the world economy
in the late 1920s and 1930s and concludes that "globalism fails because
humans and institutions they create cannot adequately handle the psychological
and institutional consequences of an interconnected world". Institutions
created to tackle the problems of globalism themselves become the major
channels through which the resentments against globalisation work their
destruction.
Dani Rodrik holds a prestigious chair of political economy at Harvard
University. He first hit the headlines in 1997 with his provocative Has
Globalisation Gone Too Far? where he expounded on the political and social
backlashes to the prevailing globalisation paradigm. Now comes "The
Global Governance of Trade As If Development Really Mattered". Rodrik
believes that import liberalisation is not essential for growth. He argues
that the WTO is anti-democratic and that the world trading regime has
to shift from a market access to a development perspective. He suggests
that globalisation is an outcome, not a prerequisite of a successful growth
strategy as evidenced from East Asia and China. He postulates a basic
"trilemma": deep international integration, a strong nation-state
and vibrant democratic politics cannot co-exist and that a country must
choose any two of the three.
The WTO has directed the International Labour Organisation (ILO) to
continue its studies on the social dimensions of globalisation and the
ilo is soon to establish an eminent persons' group on this subject. Based
on the experience of Bangladesh, Chile, South Korea, Mauritius, Poland,
South Africa and Switzerland, Raymond Torres of the ILO has published
Towards a Socially Sustainable World Economy. Four areas-education and
training, social safety nets, labour laws and industrial relations and
core labour standards-are identified as the social pillars that would
make the process of globalisation successful. Ajit Ghose, a senior economist
at the ILO, has come out with Global Economic Inequality and International
Trade in which he shows that while inter-country inequality (measured
by per capita income) has increased in the past two decades, international
inequality (per capita income weighted by population) has actually declined
breaking a long-term trend.
The World Bank's characteristically voluminous Globalisation, Growth
and Poverty concludes that there are regions where globalisation has reduced
poverty. But there are other places where it has clearly had adverse impacts.
Many widespread anxieties on the process of globalisation are well-founded.
In order to build an inclusive world economy, the report makes seven major
recommendations: greater opening of developed country markets, improvement
in the investment climate in developing countries, effective delivery
of education and health care in the poor nations, social insurance and
security, increased development aid, debt relief particularly for African
economies and effective global cooperation in environment.
Globalisation is here to stay-indeed, the most globalised community
today is that of anti-globalisation protesters! How we leverage the numerous
opportunities it throws up and manage the many risks it entails is the
real challenge. So far, we have been more successful in the latter than
in the former. And getting globalisation to deliver is, ultimately, a
matter of effective domestic governance.
(The author is with the Congress party. These are
his personal views)
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