CONSOLIDATION: Modi

RAJKOT II GUJARAT ASSEMBLY
Narendra Modi (BJP) Vs Ashwin Mehta (Congress)
1998 RESULT: BJP's Vajubhai Vala defeated RJP's Kashmiri Nathwani by over 28,000 votes.

Gujarat Chief Minister Narendra Modi's spectacular rise in the BJP is primarily due to his ability to chart winning electoral strategies. Many of the slogans that enabled the BJP to change the course of national politics in the 1990s were actually coined by Modi. Yet, Modi himself has never contested a popular election so far. That's perhaps why all eyes are fixed on Rajkot-II constituency from where Modi is seeking to enter the Gujarat Assembly four months after he took over as chief minister. The Congress has fielded an old party faithful, 67-year-old Ashwin Mehta. Few believe that Mehta can win, but if he can just peg down Modi's margin of victory the Congress will have proved a point.

The Modi campaign began relatively late but once he hit the trail, it became clear that the Congress stood no chance. Never at a loss for words, Modi reacted to the Congress charge that he was an outsider with this gem: "What kind of people are these Congressmen? They can regard an Italian woman as their own but they find a son of the soil like me an outsider."

So far, such arguments, coupled with a disarming affability, have struck a chord amongst the voters. Modi peppers his speeches with examples of his effective administration, making it a point to push his own image as a rising star of the BJP at the national level. His charisma seems to be working. But on the last leg of the campaign, Modi will have to contend with Shankersinh Vaghela, an old foe who broke away from the BJP and floated a splinter party before joining the Congress.

Modi's victory is almost assured. Speculation centres only on his margin of victory. If it is big, he will be in an unassailable position: not only would his regime get electoral sanctity, he would have neutralised his Rajkot-based rival, Keshubhai Patel, whom he replaced as chief minister in September 2001. The former chief minister would have the world believe that he and the BJP are synonymous in Gujarat. Modi is out to prove him wrong. Looks like he will.

-Uday Mahurkar

NEVER SAY DIE : Jayalalithaa

ANDIPATTI TAMIL NADU ASSEMBLY
J. Jayalalithaa (AIADMK) Vs Vaigai Shekhar (DMK)
2001 RESULT: AIADMK's Thanga Tamil Selvan defeated DMK's P. Aasiyan by over 25,000 votes.

Nine months after she stood for elections from Andipatti, AIADMK General Secretary J. Jayalalithaa is back. And this time, she's sitting pretty. At every corner meeting, she repeats her well rehearsed speech, projecting herself as MGR's legal heir and a woman wronged by DMK President M. Karunanidhi. Her campaign, which kicked off on February 13, is a combination of pomp, aggressiveness and loads of promises. Her disqualification from standing for election following her conviction in the TANSI land deal case is now fodder for her campaign. "Karunanidhi and company used all unfair means to prevent me from contesting the polls," she tells the two-lakh odd electorate. "Now the decks are cleared and here is your chance to let me fulfil MGR's dreams."

Barring the 1989 and the 1996 polls, when the DMK won the seat, Andipatti has remained an aiadmk bastion. In 1984, MGR won the seat even when he was undergoing treatment in the US; today, he's exerting long-distance influence again, with the Puratchi Thalaivi using the three magical initials to flay her rivals, buttress her claims and win votes. "These are the same people who told you in 1984 that MGR was not going to return," she says. "I had promised you that he would return. He did and went on to become your chief minister. Now let's teach those people a lesson they will never forget."

Right from the moment the AIADMK's dummy candidate Thanga Tamil Selvan won the 2001 election after Jayalalithaa's nominations were rejected, the party has been readying the constituency for Amma's return. The AIADMK enjoys the support of the predominant Thevar community and expects to garner the support of a sizeable chunk of Naickers and Dalits. When caste calculations are at their peak, Jayalalithaa plays the human card: "Emmadhavu sammadham (Any religion is okay with me)," she says, "I am here as your sister, one among you..."

And the Jaya juggernaut rolls on.

-Arun Ram

COMEBACK BID : Deva Gowda

KANAKAPURA, KARNATAKA LOK SABHA
H.D. Deve Gowda (JD-S) Vs D.K. Shivakumar (Congress)
1999 RESULT: Congress' M.V. Chandrashekhara Murthy defeated BJP's M. Srinivas by over 34,000 votes.

Former prime minister H.D. Deve Gowda is pushing 70 but the mannina maga (son of the soil) is sweating it out 15 hours a day in the dry, dusty villages of the Kanakapura Lok Sabha constituency. His 25-vehicle cavalcade-including his refurbished Canter mini-lorry and five SPG cars-covers about 50 villages each day. Deve Gowda is pulling out all stops to get to Delhi from this seat, which with its 25 lakh electorate, is Karnataka's largest parliamentary seat.

Although the constituency's eight assembly segments have four Congress representatives, two JD (U) and two BJP members, the February 21 by-poll has turned out to be a one-to-one contest. BJP leader M. Srinivas, who represented Kanakapura in the Lok Sabha in 1998, has joined Deve Gowda who seems to have garnered much more support than his 41-year-old Congress rival, Cooperation Minister D.K. Shivakumar.

This is not an aggressive campaign. Perhaps there's a reason for that: some say Chief Minister S.M. Krishna has a tacit understanding with Deve Gowda to help him enter the Lok Sabha. After all, as prime minister, Gowda once helped Krishna become a Rajya Sabha MP.

-Stephen David

SISTER SAG : Munni Devi

MIRZAPUR, UTTAR PRADESH LOK SABHA
Ram Rati Bind (SP) Vs R. Tripathi (Congress) Vs Munni Devi (RKP)
1999 RESULT: Samajwadi Party's Phoolan Devi defeated BJP's Virendra Singh by over 4,500 votes.

This is the constituency that twice sent Phoolan Devi to the Lok Sabha. Mirzapur is again due to elect its representative on February 21. But this time there's no poster or cutout of the former Bandit Queen. The Samajwadi Party, on whose ticket she won two elections, has disowned her. If anyone still remembers Phoolan, it is Munni Devi, her younger sister, who is contesting the polls on a ticket from Kalyan Singh's Rashtriya Kranti Party. "The theme of my campaign is to take revenge on those who killed her," says the 30-year-old housewife-turned-politician.

Her campaign takes Munni to the remotest areas of the constituency. She tries hard to generate sympathy among the people by repeatedly invoking her sister's name. "After all, she had international fame," says Munni. "When any petty person is killed, the government orders a CBI inquiry. Why was a CBI inquiry not ordered to probe into Phoolan Devi's murder?"

Munni could at best be an also ran. The contest is really among the sp, BJP and Congress. SP candidate Ram Rati Bind says Phoolan's murder is a non-issue. Bind, a minister in the Mulayam Singh Yadav government in 1993, is looking at the Muslims and the OBCs to win the seat.And as grandson of the late Kamlapathi Tripathi, Congress candidate Rajeshpati Tripathi has lineage on his side.

-Subhash Mishra

THE BATON PASSES: Jyotiraditya

GUNA MADHYA PRADESH LOK SABHA
Jyotiraditya Scindia (Congress) Vs D. Singh (BJP)
1999 RESULT: Congress' Madhavrao Scindia defeated BJP's Deshraj Singh by over 2.5 lakh votes.

Mahal, Maharaj and Margin are the dominating issues here. Jyotiraditya is the new maharaj from Scindia mahal and the only thing that really counts is whether his margin of victory will best his father's. He is seeking a mandate not for the party, not for himself but for his family name. "It is a tradition of public service," he says.

The new maharaj is as confident, debonair and regally distant as his late father. The BJP seems to have already conceded defeat. Deshraj Singh, four-time MLA from Mugawali, is contesting his second straight Lok Sabha election, the chances this time being no better than the last. After riding the feudal horse for decades in this constituency, the BJP campaign now runs on the slogan: Raja nahin kisan chahiye (We want a farmer not a king). State BJP President Vikram Verma and campaign in-charge Krishna Murari Moghe spout democratic wisdom from the same stage where they once raised slogans in praise of Rajmata Scindia, former BJP vice-president and the present Congress candidate's grandmother. This attack against the Scindia family has prevented Yashodhararaje Scindia, the sitting BJP MLA from Shivpuri, from campaigning in her own constituency.

Other factors are playing spoilsport. With identification cards made compulsory and an unusually high number of weddings on the day of voting, turnout is unlikely to be higher than 55 per cent. Which means that Madhavrao's victory margin of 2.5 lakh may be difficult to surpass.

-Neeraj Mishra