Neighbours

OTHER STORY RELATED TO AFGHANISTAN The Leaders: Where They Are

Loosely translated, Padshahgardi means the double-dealing engaged in by kings. For Afghans, it is a historical term signifying the strategies-fair or otherwise-employed by tribal chiefs in pursuit of power. In tactical deference to this tradition, when the US-led forces bombed the Taliban out of Kabul, several local warlords and their supporters simply changed sides and joined Afghanistan Chairman Hamid Karzai's bandwagon. But where are the Taliban leaders and their committed cadres? Do they still have the clout to destabilise the Afghanistan Government? More significantly for India, are they in a position to wreak havoc in Kashmir?

POISONED CROP: Taliban prisoners freed in Kabul

When the US-led assault in Afghanistan began in October last year, the Taliban militia under Mullah Mohammed Omar had the active support of some 60,000 heavily armed men, including 5,000 Al Qaida fighters. While more than 1,000 Al Qaida warriors and a large number of Taliban cadres and supporters died in the bombing, the remaining either changed sides or fled the country. Intelligence reports say that nearly 2,000 Taliban men crossed the Durand Line into Pakistan's North West Frontier Province and the Tribal Areas.

THE MASTERMINDS

DEAD OR ALIVE: The US is still hunting for Mullah Omar but the intelligence reports say the Taliban leader may have been killed during Kandahar bombing in January

THE GREAT EVASION: While the US is unsure about Osama bin Laden's whereabouts reports say he was injured in the US bombing

Delhi believes around 14 leaders (see graphic) in the former Taliban administration are currently in and around the Tribal Areas and refugee camps near Peshawar. These include Maulvi Noor Mohammed Saqib, chief justice in the Taliban regime, his deputy Maulvi Musajam-both believed to be in Peshawar-as well as seven ministers, two provincial governors and two top police and intelligence officials.

A large number of the Taliban fighters have also been sighted in Baluchistan, Karachi, and Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir (PoK). According to intelligence reports, the militia have moved in small groups into Gilgit and Muzaffarabad, while 60-80 Pakistani Pashtoons have regrouped in Skardu. ''It's this group of Pashtoons that we are worried about. There will be serious security ramifications if they decide to cross the Line of Control (loc) into Kashmir," says a senior Indian intelligence official.

That the Taliban leaders have moved into Pakistan became clear during the February 8 surrender of former Taliban foreign minister Wakil Ahmad Muttawakil before the Afghanistan interim administration. While the surrender was shown to have taken place at Kandahar, reports says that Muttawakil-the main Taliban interlocutor in the IC-814 plane hijacking-was arrested near Quetta. He was handed over to the US forces in Kandahar to save embarrassment to Islamabad, especially as it came on the eve of Pakistani President General Pervez Musharraf's visit to Washington. However, Afghanistan Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah, without naming Pakistan, said leaders of the "vanquished Taliban movement" were collecting outside Afghanistan to oppose the Karzai Government. "We do not have details of the organisations but it is not acceptable," he said.

Other experts say over four Taliban organisations have recently come up in Pakistan. Besides, Karzai's recent visit to Pakistan was to garner enough Pashtoon votes to help him get re-elected at the Loya Jirga, which is to be convened within six months. The Taliban is said to be regrouping at Tshahi Kurgam which is at the tip of the Wakhan corridor in Xinjiang province in China. "The British Air Force asked for bases at Kashgar and Khotan to launch operations against these Taliban groups ... but perhaps the Chinese have not agreed," says P. Stopdan, director of the Indian Cultural Centre in Almatty, Kazakhstan.

While a large majority of the Taliban have sought Islamabad's patronage, around 400 militiamen are known to have fled to Uzbekistan and Tajikistan as early as last November. Owing allegiance to Juma Namangani, the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) leader who is believed to have died in the US bombing on Mazar-e-Sharif, the cadres have not moved into their traditional stronghold in Uzbekistan's Ferghana Valley but are waiting to strike back.

A significant number of the Taliban have also used the Baluchistan-Zahedan route to move from Kandahar, Nimruz and Helmand provinces into Iran. While US Defence Secretary Donald Rumsfeld recently blamed Teheran for lax patrolling of its borders he was silent on Pakistan sheltering and supporting the Taliban. Understandable, given the fact that Washington is convinced Musharraf will deliver on his promise to tackle terrorism on its soil.

While refuting the US allegations of interference in Afghan affairs, Iranian Minister for Information and Intelligence Ali Younessi has acknowledged that several people crossing over from Baluchistan into Iran have been arrested. He also warned Pakistan to prevent further intrusions. But there is a lurking suspicion that hardliners in Iran may have turned a blind eye to the exodus due to its concern over perceived longterm US involvement in Afghanistan.

INFO-EXCHANGE: India is awaiting specifics on Kashmir after the US grilling of the Taliban prisoners at the Guantanamo prison in Cuba

While Iran may be the "evil axis" for the US, and Pakistan a key ally in its fight against terrorism, Washington itself looked the other way when the Taliban's Pakistani supporters slipped out of Afghanistan during the key battle in Kunduz. In fact, the Northern Alliance's Uzbek warlord Dawood Khan apparently saw Pakistan Air Force craft air-lifting Pakistani nationals in January this year to escape a possible massacre. Though India brought this to the notice of US Secretary of State Colin Powell during his visit to Delhi last month, the official remained silent.

However, it is the presence of top Taliban leaders and cadres in Pakistan that can have serious ramifications for Afghanistan. Former Indian high commissioner to Pakistan G. Parthasarathy says Islamabad will keep Karzai on his toes by limiting his powers in the Pashtoon-dominated areas of Afghanistan. "As the Taliban's jehadi links with ISI continue to exist, it is in Pakistan's interest to use the militia to keep the Afghan Government weak," the former diplomat said. This is precisely what is happening beyond the Afghan capital.

Intelligence reports indicate that as many as 32 warlords, some of whom supported the Taliban, were given money ranging from $50,000 to $200,000 (Rs 24 lakh-Rs 96 lakh) by the Afghan Government to change sides and ensure stability in Afghanistan. This was to secure its writ outside Kabul and in the Pashtoon-dominated areas. However, the power tussle currently on between the Government-appointed provincial governors and the local warlords, some former Pakistan protégés, shows that money is fast drying up. Reports suggest complete lawlessness in Pashtoon-dominated provinces of Paktia, Khowst and Kandahar with fighting among former Northern Alliance warlords adding to the uncertainty. In Paktia and Khowst, local governor and former Taliban supporter Badshah Khan is battling with Saifullah Khan, a Zahir Shah supporter. Reports say 60 persons were killed in clashes on January 30. The situation in Kandahar too is on the boil despite heavy US presence, with Governor Gul Agha in a stand-off with Gulbuddin Hekmatyar's Hizb-e-Islami. No wonder that Hekmatyar, whose ISI and CIA connections go back to the Soviet Union's Afghan occupation, was asked to shut down offices by Iran.

In Nangarhar province, Governor Abdul Qadir faces threat from local warlord Hazarat Ali, who has a strong Pakistani link. During the Taliban regime, Ali had supported Maulvi Qabir as Nangarhar governor as also Pakistan-backed warlord Younis Khalis. The situation in Baghlan province is also precarious with Ismaili Governor Syed Nadu Kyan unsettled by the forces led by Tajik General Himmanuddin. The fate of this tussle will be decided by the struggle between supporters of former Afghanistan president Burhanuddin Rabbani's Jamiat-e-Islami and Tajik forces owing allegiance to late Ahmed Shah Masood's Shura-e-Nazar party for control of Kunduz and Samagam.

Another battle is on in the key western province of Herat. Despite Iranian denials, Teheran has traditionally backed former Afghan resistance leader Ismail Khan. Earlier appointed as Khor Governor, Khan was shifted to Herat after a violent Pashtoon uprising. The US has beefed up its military presence at the Shindand air base to curb the perceived Iranian interference.

It is in this scenario that Afghanistan is interested in strengthening the UK-led International Security Assistance Force to extend stability beyond Kabul. Karzai's visits to the US, Pakistan and Gulf countries indicate that he wants more monetary support for the country's reconstruction. While his Washington visit was to ensure the US' long-term support in Afghanistan, the meeting with Musharraf may have been to ensure the Taliban is kept under control. His immediate aim, however, is to maintain peace in Afghanistan and prepare for the Loya Jirga. Karzai's plans may be boosted by reports indicating that at least 15 Taliban leaders will surrender before the Afghan and US authorities.

India believes Pakistan will make it tough for Afghanistan by playing the Taliban card. Already there are signs that the Pakistan-based Afghanistan Defence Council may be revived and that the Taliban cadres are regrouping to emerge as a force in the post-US scenario. For the time being, the Taliban focus appears to be Kabul and there is no indication they will cross the loc in Kashmir. But then, as in the past, it is the ISI and not the Taliban that decides policy issues.