| Among
the numerous theories doing the rounds of Lucknow in the past month, one
held the BJP would face the BSP as its strongest rival in the western regions
and the SP as principal contender in central and eastern Uttar Pradesh.
The Aaj Tak-C Voter exit poll for the 92 seats of western Uttar Pradesh
that went to the polls on February 14 did seem to suggest a BSP surge. The
BJP-Ajit Singh alliance was projected as winning 37 seats, Mayawati's party
27 and Mulayam Singh Yadav's one-man band 21.
Should the BSP's strong show persist statewide, it could end up with
90-100 seats. Far from being raided by Rajnath Singh and Mulayam, it may
see sense in collective bargaining. Mayawati is willing to form the government
with anybody provided she becomes chief minister and the Speaker's post
goes to a lackey. That's non-negotiable. The Speaker of the Vidhan Sabha
is the man who decides the legitimacy of a party split. In a polity of
defectors, his is a vital post.
For Mulayam, 150 seats for the SP would have to be supplemented by a
25-30 seat finish for the Congress. Rajnath-leader of an outgoing Assembly
the term of which expires only on March 24-simply wants to see the BJP
alliance end up as the single largest group. The ganit (arithmetic) after
that he says he understands.
By Ashok Malik
 RAJNATH'S
PLAN
STRATEGY: Make sure the BJP alliance is the single-largest group
in the election. Governor Vishnu Kant Shastri will invite him to form
the government. Next, hope the BSP wins about 90 seats and a third miraculously
splits.
SNAFU: Deal-making capacity could be a non-starter if the SP finishes
first in a hung Assembly. That'll give Mulayam first crack. BJP leadership
could ask Rajnath to sit it out for the moment.
 MULAYAM'S
HOPE
STRATEGY: Win at least 150-160 seats, and pray the Congress gets
another 25-30 and is willing to join hands. If (make that when) Pramod
Tiwari wins in Pratapgarh, he'll be the Congress' possible deputy CM.
Yadav-Brahmin bhai bhai?
SNAFU: Wins 150 all right but finds the Congress is in the region
of the teens. The BSP is cosying up to the BJP and poor Mulayam is left
without friends. Goodbye Amitabh, come back Lohiaji.
 MAYAWATI'S
GAME
STRATEGY: Cross 90 seats, offer the BJP a deal. Mayawati becomes
chief minister and a BSP man Speaker. Wily Brahmin Kalraj Mishra backs
her in the BJP, Rajnath goes to the Centre.
SNAFU: Few in the BJP trust her. She's notorious as an unreliable
ally. Reputed to have "sold" party tickets that have been "bought"
by SP and BJP fifth columnists. With (ill)luck could find her party breaking
up all around her.
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CURRENT
ISSUE FEB 25, 2002
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