POLITICIAN GENERAL: Musharraf has usurped power for five more years

For a man whose perception of the self borders on the visionary, Pakistan President General Pervez Musharraf has expediently overlooked a brazenly inflicted farce. In a widely discredited national referendum conducted on April 30, the General who would steer his nation to an exalted future has ensured his role as the steward for the next five years.

Emboldened by the US silence and eager to validate the exercise, the President rolled out a respectable spread of data: a claimed 56 per cent voter turnout that granted him a 98 per cent favourable vote. While this may lend him the fig leaf of legality as he goes in for parliamentary elections in October, it is hard to overlook the abysmally low voter turnout and instances of ballot-stuffing and multiple-voting during the referendum. Arbitrary lowering of voting age from 21 to 18 meant no electoral lists, besides which there was no effort to monitor the voting process. So even as foreign nationals and children voted, the Human Rights Commission of Pakistan termed the rigging as "having exceeded its worst fears".

NEIGHBOURS

IN THEIR FOOTSTEPS Musharraf is the third army chief to seek a referendum » In 1984, General Zia-ul-Haque conducted a referendum on his Islamisation drive. Zia-ul Haque Ayub Khan » His regime claimed 96 per cent of eligible voters had voted; only 5 per cent actually did. » In 1960, General Ayub Khan held the first referendum to legitimise his policies. » Nearly 80,000 local body councillors, put in place by Khan himself, voted in it.

To the most inept of observers the referendum would appear a self-defeating exercise as Musharraf enjoyed a far higher credibility before his blatant effort to hold on to power. In the past two years, his fiercest critics have lauded his sincerity and straight-talk, while Pakistanis have savoured the absence of political doublespeak and rank opportunism. That image now lies in tatters. Musharraf can seek consolation in the fact that he was merely following a precedent (see box), and nothing will weaken his resolve to implement his reformist agenda. In line are constitutional amendments to "ensure checks and balances" in the system. Enamoured as the military is of the Turkish model-wherein the army has a constitutional say in Parliament-the setting up of a National Security Council to "oversee" the working of the government is expected.

"There are three power brokers in the country," says Musharraf. "The president, prime minister and the chief of army." Given that Musharraf will represent two of the "power brokers"-he will continue to remain chief of the army staff and the President-it is not difficult to see the kind of parliamentary democracy being envisioned. This arrangement is also intended to keep future political governments under the army's control. Musharraf not only wants Parliament to be in consonance with his policies but there is also speculation on the reduction of its tenure. "Musharraf's remarks indicate that the coming polls will not be free and fair," says Pakistan People's Party (PPP) leader Reza Rabbani.

The General's political plans hinge on the acquiesence of the US which needs his support for its continuing "war on terrorism". But there are other pitfalls. The economy has failed to take off as well as the government had hoped for. Now it believes foreign investment will flow in once stability is seen to be established in the country. Musharraf's continued presence at the helm is considered by many in the establishment and business to be necessary for this perception to catch on. But so far, law and order problems and political upheaval-to which the discrediting of the referendum may add-have prevented this. Harsh measures dictated by the IMF, and World Bank's "structural adjustment" programmes may increase poverty and unemployment which may go against the General.

BIG BROTHER: With Musharraf in the saddle, the army and the ISI are likely to dominate the political future of Pakistan

Musharraf also seems to have alienated the main political parties-secular PPP and MQM and the centrist PML-without whose support he will be left without a credible political constituency. Many fear that in a crunch situation, as is expected, Musharraf will be forced to rely on the religious parties he so despises. Though the Pakistani Army and religious parties have had a cosy relationship since the days of Zia-ul-Haque, the ties have been under strain after September 11. If political expediency pushes Musharraf into an open compromise with them, the US may have reason to worry regarding its war against Al Qaida and its affiliates.

Musharraf's continuity in power may also have undesirable repercussions for India. According to India's former high commissioner to Pakistan G. Parthasarathy, it signifies the continuation of Pakistani Army's hegemony in the political process and its "compulsive hostility" towards India. Which means Kashmir will remain on top of Pakistan's agenda and the military stand-off on the border will continue. Delhi believes that despite his January 12 speech Musharraf has not stopped terrorist infiltration in Jammu and Kashmir, so the chances of an engagement between the two countries in the near future appear to be slim.

India has pinned its hopes on the October elections-fissures in the Pakistan polity may come in the open if mainstream opposition parties rally public opinion against Musharraf. But for now, all developments point to Musharraf emulating his military predecessors.

-with Shishir Gupta in Delhi