IN SYNC: Vajpayee and Advani could not prevail

The first signs that prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee's much-hyped cabinet reshuffle was going to fall short of expectations and ultimately loosen his own grip on the Government and the party, came in the third week of May when former RSS chief Rajendra Singh, or Rajju Bhaiyya, called on him. Singh, now a virtual recluse, was Vajpayee's mentor during his formative years in the RSS. The Sangh was very careful in choosing its messenger: Singh's words carried the weight of its collective wisdom. Drawing Vajpayee's attention to his health problems, Singh gently told him that the march of age was unstoppable. That Vajpayee, too, was being gradually confronted with a situation where the body was unable to keep pace.

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The message was clear. Vajpayee, with his depleting energy reserves and his gentle walk being the talk of middle-class drawing rooms, needed to share the burden of office. He also needed to take tough decisions that were necessary to give the BJP a much-needed boost: induct new faces, make hard choices, if necessary, to ensure that the NDA Government was in the right shape to face the next elections. While Singh's visit certainly gave an impetus to the prime minister's plans for a massive cabinet overhaul, it had no bearing on the pathetic outcome resulting from the pulls and pressures from within the party and the NDA constituents. In fact, it was Vajpayee himself who had raised expectations of a massive reconstruction of the Cabinet when he told the media that the BJP had taken note of "hard lessons". He was referring to the string of electoral setbacks, not least in Uttar Pradesh, and the aftershocks of an unpopular budget. "There will be major changes in the party and the Government," the prime minister had said, fuelling speculation about the size and scope of the impending overhaul.

Spoken in the Wheel

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FACTOIDS « 67 members in the council of ministers are from the Lok Sabha and 10 from the Rajya Sabha. « 57 of the 77 ministers and 22 out of the 32 cabinet ministers are from the BJP. « Of the BJP cabinet ministers, 10 are Brahmins. « The average age of the Cabinet is 61. « Only 7 of the 77 ministers are women. « 8 of the 12 ministers from Bihar are from the BJP of whom 4 are Kayasthas.

When it finally happened, the reshuffle signalled the fact that politically Vajpayee's hands were tied tighter than ever before. Perhaps the most remarkable aspect of the new ministry. At 77, the council of ministers is the biggest in the republic's history. Otherwise, it was a game of musical chairs that indicated no apparent strategy and lacked purpose. Inner party jockeying and pressures of coalition politics saw Vajpayee's grand plan being reduced to tatters. The incompetent performers weren't all weeded out and two of the better ones were pushed into the party to try and ensure an enclave of dynamism amid a sea of sloth.

Even that didn't pay good dividends. Trinamool Congress' Mamata Banerjee, cosying up to the NDA after walking out of the Cabinet last year, made predictable noises. She insisted that Samata Party's Nitish Kumar, the man who succeeded her as railways minister, be sacked, and that she would return only if she got her old job back. When Vajpayee refused to oblige, she cried hoarse over the creation of the new railway zone headquarters in Hajipur, Bihar.

Heir Designate L.K.Advani Deputy Prime Minister Billed as today’s Sardar Patel, he blends astuteness with good public relations. Feared and admired, his decisiveness is a foil to Vajpayee’s accommodation. CHALLENGES « Must combine tough talk on terrorism and internal security with success on the ground. Has to prevent his initiatives being marred by politics. « Ensure free and fair elections in Jammu and Kashmir with the widest participation. « Must ensure his proteges revitalise the BJP and win key state elections. Has to keep RSS and VHP at bay and evolve a working relation with Vajpayee's PMO. STRENGTHS « With the Vajpayee regime half-way through its tenure, there is still time for Advani to use his new authority to check drift in the Government. « Advani's acceptability in the NDA will dilute Opposition attacks on his Hindutva credentials. « BJP is seen to enjoy an electoral edge in states like Gujarat and Rajasthan where elections are due. This could give a fillip to the party and give it a chance to recoup before 2004.

Even in the BJP stables, recalcitrant ministers evaded shifts in portfolios and party assignments. Former party chief Jana Krishnamurthy led the way, his brinkmanship-many used the term "blackmail"-almost stalling the reshuffle. He tried hard to prevent his ouster as BJP president. When he eventually relented, Krishnamurthy stunned Vajpayee and Home Minister-now also the Deputy Prime Minister-L.K. Advani by stating that his "interests" were Defence, Foreign Affairs, Finance and, at a pinch, Law. With a great show of martyrdom he settled for the Law Ministry, only to find that the Department of Company Affairs had been detached from the portfolio.

The no-holds-barred power struggle among the second rung BJP ministers also added fuel to the fire. Though almost all of them publicly vowed to "serve" the party, none was ready to match word with deed. Ministers like Ananth Kumar, in charge of Urban Development, worked overtime to escape the axe. While Kumar succeeded, others like former health minister C.P. Thakur who lacked political patronage, were forced to quit. Such were the divergent pulls that even Vajpayee couldn't have his way. It was no secret that Disinvestment Minister Arun Shourie was Vajpayee's choice for the Finance Ministry. But Parliamentary Affairs Minister Pramod Mahajan, among others of his generation, made no bones about his opposition to Shourie's transfer. Left without too many options, Vajpayee finally turned to Jaswant Singh who was prepared to consider a shift from External Affairs.

These compulsions perhaps also explain the Jaswant-Yashwant swap. With Jaswant moving to the Finance Ministry, Vajpayee did not have much talent at his command to find a replacement. Advani was more than burdened with the Home Ministry to add the Foreign Office to it. That left Shourie and former law minister Arun Jaitley, both articulate technocrats with an understanding of the political imperatives, but also attracting opposition from powerful contemporaries. Sinha was the choice by sheer default and because both Advani and NDA Convener George Fernandes argued against dumping him totally.

There were hiccups in the party revamp too. Mahajan's candidature was briefly discussed for the BJP president's post, his success as an organisation man speaking well for him. But he was also seen to have worked for the ouster of key rivals from their ministerial berths. Had the move to shunt Information and Broadcasting Minister Sushma Swaraj to either another ministry or the party succeeded, it would have facilitated the mega convergence of Information Technology, Telecom and Broadcasting. While crucial intervention by Advani scuttled this plan, the home minister's own bid to replace Swaraj with Delhi MP Vijay Kumar Malhotra also failed due to a well-timed leak that saw former Delhi chief minister Sahib Singh Verma demanding a place in the Cabinet.

Vajpayee's grandiose plans to inject vigour in the party and the Government crashed. Far from giving the Government a new lifeline, the reshuffle turned out to be an exercise in shoddy compromise and deal-making. Never mind purposefulness, it exposed the factional cracks within the BJP and Vajpayee and Advani's helplessness.

Advani's New Role

CROSSED WIRES

The Finance fiasco Stalled: Arun Shourie was the prime minister's man. But opposition from Pramod Mahajan and other senior leaders halted the disinvestments minister in his tracks. SOLUTION: Jaswant Singh asked to take charge of the Finance portfolio.

Swap story Subsequently, a new external affairs minister was needed. Apart from Yashwant Sinha, other choices proved contentious.

Ananth Kumar's Saga SURVIVES: Venkaiah Naidu and Arun Jaitley pleaded his case with L.K. Advani and Vajpayee. A hot favourite for a party post in Karnataka, he survived. How long the reprieve will last is difficult to say given his poor report card.

The kerbside plot that failed to click GOING, BUT NOT QUITE: Sushma Swaraj was on the hit list, but managed to dodge the axe.

The 12th man V.K. Malhotra was to become information minister but Sahib Singh Verma claimed a berth. Verma was egged on by those who felt threatened by Malhotra's seniority.

Grand plan to bifurcate I&B Ministry hatched Information Would have gone to Shatrughan Sinha Broadcasting Was to have been amalgamated with IT and Telecom under Mahajan's charge. The audacious move was shot down by Advani.

Government to BJP no problem Both Jaitley and Naidu left the Cabinet to take up party assignments. Naidu won the race for BJP president.

But Jana extracts his price Arm-twisted Vajpayee to get Law Ministry; Ravi Shankar Prasad lost out.

The soap opera is playing on rewind and rerun Mamata Banerjee hankers for Railways. Vajpayee refuses. Mamata sulks. Maneka Gandhi picks one fight too many. Taxed the patience of all. Lost job.

Amid the gloom of failed expectations, Advani's elevation emerged as the only talking point. More than anything, it signalled that the baton had been passed not to a younger man but to one having a more promising electoral impact in the future. It is unlikely Vajpayee missed the varied proposals that had been doing the rounds in the past few weeks, including his shift to Rashtrapati Bhavan once K.R. Narayanan demitted office. Even though he was in reasonable health for a man of his age, repeated media speculation always cut Vajpayee to the quick.

By all accounts, the prime minister continues to be mentally agile. His interventions in the Cabinet are incisive. If he feels an argument has run its course, a nod from him is signal for the meeting to take up the next agenda. While such attributes are obvious to insiders, his public persona is that of a man given to long pauses and unable to gauge questions at press conferences.

So the only surprise about Advani's elevation as the country's seventh deputy prime minister was that it took so long. Singh's message had dovetailed with the decision that Vajpayee had himself arrived at in mid-April. On Vajpayee's directive, Fernandes had begun to sound out coalition partners about the idea of Advani's promotion around the third week of April. It was a proposal that surprised none.

On June 27, when the prime minister and Advani met after detailed discussions on the reshuffle, Vajpayee simply asked Advani, "To kab karna hai? (So, when is it to be done?)." Advani replied that it was Vajpayee's prerogative. The only question that remained was about Advani's exact role. "The deputy prime ministership invests me with an authority and legitimacy to carry out tasks that I was handling with the confidence of the prime minister and the party," he told India Today.

The new designation has inevitably sparked off speculation on whether he is the "prime minister in waiting". Advani typically brushes it aside. "Succession is seen in the context of the next generation. Vajpayeeji and I are of the same generation," he says. The elevation, he is confident, will curb all attempts to play up perceptions of differences between him and the prime minister. He even told the Hindi TV channel Aaj Tak that Vajpayee would lead the next election campaign-a clear case of hope prevailing over chronology.

But the formal anointing of a No. 2 in the Government has crucial portents. A mid-course performance appraisal and corrective measures in the Government had been due since the BJP's Goa executive in April this year. Ever sensitive to fluctuations in the political environment, Delhi's power elite has already sensed a shift in equations, the most significant being the diminishing clout of Vajpayee's close associate and Principal Secretary Brajesh Mishra.

The former diplomat's abrasive style had made him unpopular with most ministers, including Advani, whose relationship with him verged on the frosty. In fact, Advani had once chided Mishra for systematically seeking to project the prime minister by running down other ministers and the RSS, and creating mistrust between Vajpayee and him. What incensed Advani most was that the Opposition employed precisely this divisive strategy to distance the BJP from the Sangh Parivar and the other NDA partners.

That the all-powerful Mishra's star is waning is evident from the fact that not only was he kept at an arm's length during crucial discussions on the cabinet reshuffle, but he had no clue about Advani's elevation. Mishra has for long been seen as a chink in Vajpayee's armour. Not too far back, Vajpayee had insisted that his principal secretary was "non-negotiable". He seems to have ended up paying a heavy price for this obduracy. In fact, expectations are rife in BJP's top circles that the implications of Advani's anointment may not take long in manifesting. Mishra's fortunes could be a barometer.

The End of an Era

The drama now being enacted is over the political fortunes of Vajpayee and Advani. Senior BJP ministers see a gradual withdrawal on Vajpayee's part to create space for Advani. By exercising his prime ministerial prerogative, Vajpayee has ended speculation regarding the line of succession. But on another plane, he has begun an uncertain phase in Indian politics. There are obvious implications for the BJP and the NDA in the context of the 2004 elections.

Shortly after taking oath as deputy prime minister on June 29, Advani met Vajpayee to insist that he stop refusing to contest in the next elections. "You will contest," Advani argued. Vajpayee demurred, stating, "Ab nahin hota (I cannot manage it any longer)." Advani chose to leave it at that.

The reshuffle may well be Vajpayee's last attempt at setting the NDA house in order. While coalition pressures continue unabated, the BJP's internal wrangling presented an ugly sight. Which is why Advani's anointment indicates that Vajpayee may now be preparing to call it a day while the going is still good.