DEFIANCE DAY: A 47 per cent voter turnout in Pattan was accompanied by angry protests after the army allegedly nudged some voters to booths

As India sighed in relief after the first phase of elections to the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly on September 16, anxiety came in the form of a telephone call. It was Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee calling from Zurich, the stopover on his return journey from the US. State Governor Girish Chandra Saxena, who picked up the receiver, immediately sensed the prime ministerial apprehension. For the next 10 minutes, the two talked about the significance of the voter turnout and the scale of violence. The caller's last question was a giveaway: what was the impression formed by the foreign diplomats who watched the election? "Sir, I hope their views on fairness and transparency are as good as mine," said Saxena.

KASHMIR ELECTIONS

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Vajpayee's concern was understandable. The K-word had been a recurring theme throughout his American mission. It dominated his speech in the UN General Assembly. He heard it in the hate speech of Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf on the same forum-the General referred to the elections in the state as "sham". It was hard to miss the irony as the spokesman of democratic virtues was a hoax in uniform as far as democracy was concerned.

TELLING RETORT The five districts along the LoC had high turnouts
Kupwara Baramulla Kargil Rajouri Poonch	62.26 45.72 76.89 46.98 52.86

Not only the General and his beneficiaries in Kashmir but the entire community of Doomsday scenarists had taken the Kashmiris for granted. September 16 marked a people's revolt-not massive, but remarkable. The voter turnout of 51 per cent (Election Commission's provisional figures) in the first phase may not have been a great show of democratic upsurge, but in Kashmir, at this moment in its bloody history, it is. The elections were preceded by a boycott call from the Hurriyat Conference and various Islamic militant organisations, and two candidates had been killed. The fear was overwhelming, challenging the democratic faith of the people.

Musharraf's humiliation was telling. In 23 assembly segments in five districts-Kupwara, Baramulla, Rajouri, Poonch and Kargil-bordering the 856-km-long Line of Control (loc), the turnout was particularly high-and symbolic. By pressing the buttons on the electronic voting machines, those men and women were pulling the plug on the anti-election tirade from across the loc. It was also an audacious act of crossing the line of fear.

GREAT EXPECTATIONS: The National Conference supporters take out a rally on the last day of campaigning in Uri

"Casting a vote is like defying the militant-ordained death warrants." Abdul Sofi, a voter from Kirpalpora

The election still has a long way to go. The next three phases pose a bigger challenge, says Saxena. He may be right. Some areas covered in the next phases have been the worst affected by militancy. Others are recognised pockets of extremists who have popular support. Nearly two-thirds of the 25-odd assembly constituencies categorised as "difficult" in the state figure in central Kashmir (Srinagar, Badgam), south Kashmir (Anantnag, Pulwama) and Doda district, are scheduled to keep the date with democracy on September 24, October 1 and 8 respectively.

A skewed turnout pattern was witnessed in the first phase of polling, ranging from 9.25 per cent in the pro-Pakistan Jamaat-e-Islami stronghold of Sopore to as high as 82.57 per cent in Gurej, revealing an ethnic divide across the Valley. The Gujjars, Bakarwals, Paharis and Shias formed the major chunk of voters who defied the boycott call.

There were other paradoxes on September 16. In the Pattan constituency, the volatile town on the Srinagar-Baramulla highway, people stayed away from polling and even took out an angry demonstration when the army allegedly nudged some voters in the peripheral localities towards the polling booths. It was an entirely different story in the nearby Kirpalpora, a Shia-dominated village, where enthusiastic voters, including women, waited in serpentine queues even after the lapse of polling time. "Casting the vote is like defying the militant-ordained death warrants," said Abdul Sofi, a farmer.

SILENT OBSERVER: Sopore, a Jamaat-e-Islami stronghold, registered a low 9.25 per cent turnout

"Fear of militants could turn the anti-National Conference vote into a no-vote." Mufti Mohammed Sayeed, PDP chief

While Delhi attributed the voter apathy in the hinterland to militant threats, the Hurriyat was quick to tout it as "rejection" of elections by Kashmiris. "It is a mandate against the elections," says Hurriyat Chairman Abdul Ghani Bhat. But his claim was punctured by the turnout. Even Kupwara, Langet and Handwara segments-where the "rebel" separatist People's Conference (pc), an influential constituent of the Hurriyat, was contesting-recorded above 50 per cent polling.

This trend may not be replicated in the next phases. Much of Srinagar city, where senior Hurriyat leader Mirwaiz Omar Farooq and Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front Chairman Yasin Malik have strong pockets of influence, is poised to go the Sopore way. Ganderbal, the native constituency of the ruling Abdullah clan from where National Conference chief Omar Abdullah is contesting for the first time, is expected to have a lower turnout than the 1996 elections. However, Badgam, Charar-e-Sharif and Kangan constituencies-having substantial Shia and Gujjar voters-may arrest the slide.

Unlike the high-pitch campaign in the first phase, mainly by the high-spirited breakaway pc candidates, the campaigning for the next rounds is decidedly low key. In the mountainous terrain of Anantnag and Pulwama comprising 15 constituencies and havens of foreign mercenaries, scared candidates are addressing only small, unscheduled rallies. "Holding a scheduled meeting is no guarantee for returning home alive," says CPI(M) leader Yousaf Tarigami, who is contesting from Kulgam in Anantnag.

His fear is not misplaced. Since August 22, the day the first phase of elections was notified, as many as 38 political activists, including a state minister have been killed, compared to 12 political killings during the entire election process in 1996. This fear may explain why candidates in many constituencies are trying to woo the Jamaat cadres who work as watch-and- listen posts for militant outfits. The People's Democratic Party (PDP) of former Union home minister Mufti Mohammed Sayeed is banking heavily on the militants' sympathies.

For the mainstream NC, the real threat comes not from militants but from the anti-incumbency sentiment, though its prince on the stump won't accept it. "Public anger may be against certain candidates, not the party," says Omar. The party is finding it difficult to energise even the traditional NC bastions in rural Kashmir due to its poor performance on the autonomy issue, which it had projected as the Magna Carta for the Kashmiris in the 1996 polls.

What warms the NC hearts, however, is the prospect of a low turnout. "Fear of militants could well turn the anti-NC vote into a no-vote," says Sayeed. It is an advantage by default, as in the constituencies with poor turnout, only committed NC voters are expected to make it to the polling booths. Though still a frontrunner in the absence of a credible opposition, this time the party may fall well short of its 1996 tally of 59 seats (two-thirds majority) in the 87-member Assembly. But the changed electoral landscape in the Valley is seen as a positive sign. According to some political observers, the success of non-NC candidates could be a catalyst for change.

Much would depend on the performance of rebel separatists, widely believed to have the tacit support of the pc's Lone brothers, Sajjad and Bilal, who are emerging as enfants terribles in the secessionist movement. The turnout in the separatist pockets may be low, but a clean, fair election will be a devastating blow to the Hurriyat. And the victory of the pc's proxy candidates is certain to dent the separatist spirit.

What is most evident in this election is that the people have the will to write their own political destiny, and the invisible hands of the saboteur is overactive in making it not that easy. The security forces have a tough task ahead. Under their protection are 307 candidates-67 more than the 1996 election figure. In Kashmir today, the road to the polling booth may be the road to perdition for the enemies within and without. Every step towards the booth, and every vote cast, marks the triumph of India, of democracy.