In a vibrant democracy like India, can vitriol get votes? The outcome of a fiercely fought battle in Gujarat next month will determine both the colour and contours of India's future electoral battles. A victory for the BJP will herald the return of saffron aggression and supply the much-needed oxygen to the currently lacklustre NDA Government at the Centre. A defeat may accelerate the downfall of the Vajpayee Government.

Cover

OTHER STORIES RELATED TO COVER The Triumph of Hate Battle for Gandhi's Nagar

If the India Today-Aaj Tak ORG-MARG poll, according to which 55 per cent of Gujarati voters endorse Chief Minister Narendra Modi's politics, is any indication, the stage is set for the triumph of the RSS brand of exclusivist Bharat over cosmopolitan India. And if Modi returns triumphantly to Sardar Patel Bhavan on December 15, it will also mark the birth of yet another democratically elected but aggressive Hindu icon. You can't afford to miss the message from Gujarat: it is not performance that gets you votes, it is not even any pro forma manifesto that will get you power. It is the day of the creative sloganeer, whose name at the moment is Narendra Modi. The one-time RSS preacher has evolved into a slogansmith, full of wit and sarcasm. His slogan: India or Bharat?

This Modi moment of the BJP is not accidental. The BJP long ago ceased to be a party with a difference. It badly needed a slogan, an idea-and a face. Today, Gujarat has become its laboratory for a new political chemistry. If the experiment is a success, it will be tested in other states and in General Elections 2004. Within the Parivar, there is complete unanimity on the Gujarat Agenda. Says a senior RSS functionary: "If we win Gujarat, we will be able to force the BJP leadership to follow the Parivar principles and stop the party from looking for endorsement from those who are culturally, socially and politically opposed to us.''

It is this forceful voice of the RSS that didn't allow Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee and other moderate leaders to soften the Modi model-thank you, no Modi lite please. Actually, the decision to experiment with the volatile Hindu agenda was taken soon after the Godhra train massacre in February. Since the Gujarat Government didn't have any worthwhile achievement to flaunt for a fresh mandate, it chose to convert the riots which followed the carnage into an issue of Gujarati pride and security. The state leadership has decided to invite only those leaders who are openly associated with the RSS and hardcore Hindutva for campaigning. This strategy is paying huge dividends. Modi-ites claim the party has not seen mobilisational spirit of this scale since Advani's Rath Yatra in 1990.

A victorious Modi will be one of the powerful front-rank alternatives to L.K. Advani, the sophisticated hawk, and Vajpayee, the human face, at the Centre. Had he won Uttar Pradesh, Rajnath Singh could have captured that space. But the Thakur could neither assert his conviction nor force the Central leadership to choose his own team and slogan. He was forced to arrest Ram sevaks and even stop the construction of pillars for the temple. Currently Pramod Mahajan, Rajnath, Sushma Swaraj, Arun Jaitley, Uma Bharati, Vasundhra Raje, Jaswant Singh and M. Venkaiah Naidu are the possible leaders of 2005 and beyond. Let-us-roll Modi has left them far behind. Considering his oratorial skills and mass appeal, who knows, he may turn out to be an effective Vajpayee. Other leaders have come to acquire their status by virtue of their presence in Delhi and closeness to the Central leadership. At every RSS and BJP meeting in the country today, Modi has become a redeeming four-letter word. He is the newest mascot for Hindu revivalism.

He has set the agenda for this election, and issues other than Modi-including the economy-have no place in it. At this moment, it seems to be all about making a choice between Modi and Musharraf-or Modi and Sonia. He has not even given the Congress a chance to engage the BJP on the issue of performance. Last week, Modi made a calculated attempt to put the Congress on the defensive by raising the Ram mandir issue. While addressing an election meeting at Karamsad, birthplace of Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel, Modi asked a cheering crowd, "If they can't shout 'Jai Shri Ram' here in India, will they go to Italy and raise this slogan?" He was hitting both Sonia and the anti-mandir forces with one rhetorical bomb even though it was in bad taste. Instead of ignoring him, the Congress walked into his trap. The Gujarat Congress chief, a former RSS worker, retorted at a meeting, "Drive out the people who brought terrorism in the name of Hinduism to Gujarat."

No wonder Modi is the so-called secular parties' worst nightmare. In the words of a senior Congress leader, "If Modi wins, it is the end of secular politics in India, and all of us will be under pressure from our cadres to review our philosophy. It is dangerous." Though the Congress has won most of the state elections recently, it was mainly due to the anti-incumbency factor. The Congress is in power in most of the states going to polls next year. The BJP's only hope is the Modi model, particularly in the context of the Mufti Government's soft attitude towards terrorists in Kashmir. The Congress and other anti-BJP parties will find it difficult to counter the BJP's nationalist slogan against terrorism. The non-BJP parties' fear is that a massive mandate in Gujarat will boost the BJP cadre's morale, which in turn will result in the party pushing for anti-conversion bill, change in the education system and the uniform civil code, among other things.

Modi may win, but can India afford to party with him?