Once lauded as the land of the Mahatma and the nursery of Indian capitalism, Gujarat has of late acquired a different reputation-as the epicentre of communal conflict. Compounding this notoriety is the image of Chief Minister Narendra Modi. Trashed by many as a mass murderer, he has simultaneously emerged as the new symbol of aggressive Hindutva. The assembly poll in Gujarat has an extraordinary importance because the outcome is linked to Modi's fate. His victory has the potential of reshaping the political agenda in the run-up to the next general election.

Who would make the best CM for Gujarat?
Shankersinh Vaghela 29%	Keshubhai Patel 9%	Narendra Modi 48%
Indian polls are fast becoming presidential contests with parties announcing their chief ministerial candidates in advance. In the Narendra Modi-Shankersinh Vaghela contest, the incumbent has a clear advantage. Modi is the choice of almost all sections including Dalits, tribals, backward classes, women and youth. Vaghela has a lead among Muslims. Keshubhai Patel still has a nuisance value.

Predicting any election in India has its pitfalls. More so if the opinion poll is held before the candidates have been announced. This India Today-Aaj Tak poll conducted between November 6 and 10 by ORG-MARG is in a sense a trailer. It captures the mood of the Gujarat electorate at the starting point of the race. It also assesses the emotional and political impact of the March riots on the election.

There are two broad conclusions. First, the magnitude of polarisation along sectarian lines is staggering. A sense of Hinduness, it would seem, has dramatically subsumed caste, class and gender differences. Secondly, there is a sharp dichotomy between how events in Gujarat are perceived outside the state and how Gujaratis view them. With his flamboyance and notoriety, Modi has made the election a referendum on himself. Judging by the initial trends, it is a gamble that seems to be working. Not only is the BJP in a position to secure a two-thirds majority in the new Assembly, its popular vote may actually touch a dizzying 55 per cent. In just 13 months, Modi has transformed himself from a backroom apparatchik to a formidable mass leader.

Which party will you vote for?
GUJARAT ASSEMBLY PROJECTIONS			Total Seats : 182
BJP	Congress	Others	In 1998, the BJP gained from a split opposition vote. Now it benefits from the fierce communal polarisation. Some 59 per cent of Hindu voters support the BJP while 83 per cent of Muslims back the Congress.
Poll Nov 2002 120-130 (55.0%)	Poll Nov 2002 45-55 (42.0%)	Poll Nov 2002 2-7 (3.0%)
Lok Sabha 1999* 113(52.5%)	Lok Sabha 1999* 69 (45.4%)	Lok Sabha 1999* 0(2.1%)
Assembly 1998 117 (44.8%)	Assembly 1998 57** (46.6%)	Assembly 1998 8 (8.7%)
Swing over 1998 (10.2)	Swing over 1998 (-4.5)
*1999 Lok Sabha election broken into leads in assembly segments **Combined tally of Congress and RJP which fought the election separately. Congress secured 34.9 per cent and RJP 11.7 per cent votes.
What Caused the March riots? Godhra Incident 56 57 39 Muslim Extrmists 20 21 6 State-sponsored riots 10 8 32 Miscreants on both sides 9 8 11 Activities to Hindu 3 3 7         Do you feel secure living in Gujarat Today? Feel secure 68 69 56 Smewhat insecure 20 19 24 Very insecure 11 10 16		How did the Modi Government handle the riots? Fairly and effectively     61 In a Partisan Manner     21 Incompetently     15         Are you prepared to have a member of a different community as you neighbour? Prepared     37 Not Prepared     58
METHODOLOGY	The scars of the communal bloodletting earlier this year have translated into a brazen show of Hindu solidarity and Gujarati pride. Voters have rallied solidly behind the chief minister's aggressive posturing. They have endorsed his view of the riots being a reaction to Godhra. They approve his fulmination against outsiders who have vilified the state. And they contemptuously dismiss all suggestions that Gujarat has become a dangerous place to live in. This is one election where anti-incumbency is absent.
The India today-Aaj Tak ORG-MARG poll interviewed 9,481 eligible voters-2,823 in urban centres and 6,658 in rural areas-spread across 52 assembly constituencies in Gujarat between November 6 and 10. The sampling was done at the parliamentary constituency level, with two assembly seats being selected by systematic random sampling from each. Within an assembly seat, quota-based interviews were done using the right hand rule of field movement. The poll was supervised by ORG-MARG Research Director Vivek Kumar.
Opinion polls should never be mistaken for the real thing. There is always the floating voter who either votes tactically-to defeat a party-or rushes to be on the winning side. The numbers of the potentially undecided are not insignificant. Their conduct will depend on the campaign.
Rate the performance of the state Government Outstanding     9 Good     47 Average     25 Poor     18 Will you change your mind between now and polling day? Won't change     71 Probably     17 Definitely change     7 Are you better off today then two years ago? Yes     56 No     39		What issues will influence you vote? Prices     24 Riots of March 2002     16 Corruption     14 Performance of MLA     11 Caste considerations     10 Performance of state Government     8 National issues     8 Chief ministerial candidates     7 Religious considerations     7

There is not much solace for the Congress in this poll. Despite the bipolar politics and its impressive showing in the panchayat polls of 2001, it has not been able to equal the 46.6 per cent vote polled by the divided opposition in 1998. The merger of Shankersinh Vaghela's Rashtriya Janata Party into the Congress has paid some dividends but not enough. The Congress still leads among Dalit and tribal voters but this area of traditional advantage has narrowed to just 3 per cent. The aftermath of the riots has nullified the mood of anti-incumbency that was visible in the last days of the Keshubhai Patel government. There is a bizarre feel-good factor working in Gujarat and it is this sense of elation that has given the BJP a clear edge.

A dramatic conclusion is inescapable-Gujarat is revelling in its honeymoon with Modi. Four weeks to polling, the outcome seems foregone.