As a matter of habit, Orissa Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik spends the mornings pacing from one room to another in his spacious home. Of late, however, his pace has quickened perceptibly. Keeping up with his swift stride is the flurry of phone calls from close aides that keeps him updated on late-night political developments. With dissidence in his Biju Janata Dal (BJD) threatening to swirl out of control and rebels demanding his scalp, it is imperative for the chief minister to stay a few steps ahead of his detractors.

TEST OF WILLS: Naveen has few options to counter the rise of Acharya

Naveen, however, is putting up a brave face. "Nothing dramatic has happened and nothing ever will," he says, making light of the virtual coup by six of the 10 BJD Lok Sabha MPs. The dissidents recently elected Prasanna Acharya, the Sambalpur MP, as their parliamentary party leader and secured the approval of Lok Sabha Speaker Manohar Joshi. "We are not up in arms against the chief minister's authority, only his authoritarian ways," says Acharya, cautious not to reveal the rebels' real intentions.

But having tasted blood, the MPs are likely to embark on a similar adventure in the state Assembly. The strategy is simple: win over at least half of the 70 BJD MLAs, elect a new leader in place of Naveen and hope the speaker grants them legitimacy. Splitting the legislature party in the 147-member House may be a tougher challenge, but the rebels are confident. "It is a matter of time before Naveen is swept away," says Bijoy Mohapatra, president of the Orissa Gana Parishad.

The dissidents are banking on the disillusionment among the party legislators: for too long, Naveen has been insulated from the rank and file and dependent on a coterie. On the other hand, a big stumbling block for the rebels could be the chief minister's popularity, so efforts are on to dent his image. Last week, rebel leaders undertook a publicised visit to Paradeep to highlight the tardy progress in the setting up of an oil refinery. The objective clearly was to portray Naveen as incapable of protecting Orissa's interests.

A bigger imponderable could be the BJP. Officially, the party has not reacted to the tumult in the BJD, but is keeping a close watch. While a mid-term election does not augur well for the BJP-its ministers rank low in public esteem and their poll prospects are bleak-the party may not undertake a perilous venture at a time when its hands are full in Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat.

Yet the BJP, with its 35 MLAs, holds the key to political developments. Without its support, the rebels cannot elect a new leader or instal a new government. Taking the Congress' help could be suicidal as almost all rebels have been reared on anti-Congressism. Naveen, therefore, is banking on the BJP. Having been one of the most silent and trusted allies in the NDA, he hopes the BJP will pay back in kind.

Naveen could also attempt pre-emptive strikes like expelling the six MPs as negotiations are unlikely to effect a permanent truce. Though the move could mean having no BJD ministers at the Centre and therefore lesser clout, Naveen can draw comfort from the fact that Andhra Pradesh's N. Chandrababu Naidu, who also has no ministers at the Centre, is doing well. But as the rebel trap closes in and the chief minister runs out of options, prompt counter-measures may be the key to survival.