Neighbours: Pakistan; Sudden Revival

Neighbours

India Today
Sep 21,1998

PAKISTAN
Sudden Revival

After the Colombo pyrotechnics, both sides ready for talks.

By Manoj Joshi

Vajpayee with Nawaz Sharif Relations between India and Pakistan are like the phases of the moon. At times they wane with hostility and distrust, at other times wax with civility and bonhomie. In July-August, Pakistan declared it could not talk to India and guns boomed across the Line of Control in Kashmir. Indian and Pakistani diplomats who met at Colombo for the SAARC summit last month vied to demonise each other. Suddenly the phase has changed. South Block officials are reticent, saying nothing more than that relations are on an even keel and that both sides will now talk to each other on Kashmir and other issues.

The change came after bilateral talks between the Indian Foreign Secretary K. Raghunath and his Pakistani counterpart Shamshad Ahmad at the Non-Aligned Movement summit in Durban earlier this month. The breakthrough occurred after Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee telephoned Nawaz Sharif in Islamabad and discussed the issue. The Pakistani prime minister had scrapped his visit to Durban because of his domestic political difficulties. Sharif told Vajpayee that he and Foreign Minister Sartaj Aziz could make the announcement detailing the modalities of the resumed dialogue. However, it was felt that it would be better for the prime ministers themselves to make the announcement after their forthcoming meeting in New York later this month where they will be attending the UN General Assembly session.

Officials are mum about the details of the decisions that have enabled both India and Pakistan to declare victory. But it seems clear that they are based on a compromise crafted around the arcane diplomatic language used in the June 23, 1997, agreement that they subsequently disagreed on. This would mean that while Raghunath and Ahmad kick off discussions on peace and security and Kashmir, dates for discussing six other subjects, including Siachen, Wular barrage and Sir Creek, will also be announced simultaneously. Former foreign secretary J.N. Dixit says that the already existing agreement on these three issues has been stalled since 1991 by the Pakistanis because of Kashmir.

Surprisingly, the quarrel that derailed the dialogue matured during the prime ministership of Inder Kumar Gujral, a man whom no one would accuse of being anti-Pakistan. In September 1997 when Raghunath and Ahmad met to "operationalise" the mechanism decided on in June to discuss Indo-Pak issues under eight heads, Pakistani officials claimed Delhi had also agreed to set up a specific working group to address the Kashmir issue. However, afraid that Pakistan would hijack the dialogue and focus solely on Kashmir, Delhi demurred.

Under the new arrangement with all the dates announced simultaneously, India's call for a "composite dialogue" and Pakistan's for a discussion on Kashmir will be accommodated. Indian officials are clear that any attempt by Pakistan to renege on talks on other issues and harp exclusively on Kashmir would bring the entire process to a grinding halt.

Caught in the post-Chagai quagmire, Sharif has realised that his brinkmanship with India is generating a sense of alarm around the world, especially in the US. After his Colombo declaration that talks with India were a "waste of time", the US made it clear that resumption of economic aid was contingent on Pakistan continuing talks with India. The replacement of hardliner foreign minister Gohar Ayub with the pragmatic Aziz was also linked to this. With its other chickens coming home to roost, Islamabad has quietly toned down the anti-Indian rhetoric and signalled its willingness to talk. For its part, Delhi has decided that there is nothing to lose in discussing Kashmir, whatever be the format. Dixit, a long-time votary of such talks, notes, "There is no need to shy away from discussions. If the Pakistanis attach priority to Kashmir, so do we." If this is the spirit in which the talks are resumed, the Indo-Pakistani moon may not wane early.

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