States: Orissa: Sonia Strikes

The Congress chief uses the chaotic situation in the state to get rid of a formidable but inefficient chief minister.

There's the Door: Sonia was firm that Patnaik should pay for the excesses committed under his leadership

On Sunday, February 7, Janaki Ballav Patnaik's wake-up call came long distance. It was the call that the Orissa chief minister had dreaded all along: the summons from 10 Janpath. A strong believer in pujas and yagnas for propitiating God, Patnaik had prayers on his lips as he boarded the Delhi flight later in the day. Among those who called on him when he reached the capital's Orissa Bhavan were Pranab Mukherjee and Madhavrao Scindia to whom he put up a spirited defence of his regime. "There have been no riots. Such incidents can happen anywhere," he argued, referring to the killing of the Australian missionary Graham Stewart Staines and his two sons and the alleged rape of a nun in Baripada. He went on to detail the steps taken by his government to contain such incidents but the two central leaders, despite being his personal friends, did not seem convinced. "Madam has made up her mind, you should put in your papers when you meet her," they told him.

Which is what Patnaik did in the evening when he was ushered into 10 Janpath. On the face of it, the resignation implied that the chief minister was owning moral responsibility for the outrages committed against the minority Christians in Orissa. Few, however, believe that to be the only reason. The fact is a lax administration under Patnaik had been unable to check general lawlessness in the state. With age no longer on his side, it was curtains for 73-year-old Patnaik who has ruled the state for 14 years in two different stints. But his stay in power being uninspiring, an unceremonious exit was expected. Lurching all through his reign from one controversy to another -- including some that brought him under cloud for alleged personal moral turpitude -- Patnaik's legacy is a state still swept by hunger, poverty and deprivation. Quips one senior dissident minister: "Patnaik has finally reaped what he himself had sown."

What went wrong for a man who, after Jyoti Basu, is the country's second longest serving chief minister? Several factors contributed to his fall (see box). Above all, Congress President Sonia Gandhi had been consciously keeping him at a distance. One of the first things she did after taking over as party chief was to remove him from the Congress Working Committee. As a senior leader said, "The Anjana Mishra case and the burning of the missionaries acted as catalysts for her to show him the door. But she had made up her mind long ago."

Yes Madam: Patnaik bows down to Sonia's wishes but is not likely to forget the insult in a hurry

Patnaik, besides becoming a political liability in the state, had also become a cause for severe embarrassment for the Congress at the national level. The killing of the Staines and the nun's rape case had caused Sonia loss of face at a time when she was pressing for Central intervention in BJP-ruled Gujarat for similar outrages against the Christians.

But more engaging reasons for Patnaik's downfall lay in recent tumultuous events that showed the chief minister in a poor light. Patnaik's refusal to sack former advocate-general Indrajit Ray -- accused in the Mishra molestation case -- for almost a year invited much public wrath. Worse, the affidavit of former director-general of police A.B. Tripathy accused Patnaik of interfering with police investigations and blatantly trying to bail out Ray. But the last nail in the proverbial coffin was driven when Mishra was gangraped last month despite court orders that she be given police protection. With popular perception sharply ranged against him, Patnaik became a lameduck chief minister with little or no moral authority left. The hugely discredited Patnaik was turning out to be a source of strength for the Opposition and Sonia soon began to read the writing on the wall. After wavering for a while, she decided to show him the door.

Though dumping Patnaik has been easy, discarding him is certain to prove much more difficult. Patnaik has immense resources and an unmatched manipulative skill. Having survived successive party presidents right from Indira Gandhi and Rajiv Gandhi to P.V. Narasimha Rao and Sitaram Kesri, and by virtue of running the state unit as his fiefdom since 1978, Patnaik's tentacles in the state Congress run deep and wide. All the 30 district presidents are his handpicked nominees, as also 55 of the 83 MLAs in the Assembly. This gives him the unique strength of turning the tables whenever he wishes.

REASONS FOR
THE 'SACK'

ť Anti-incumbency factor and dismal performance of the Congress in the state under Patnaik during the last Lok Sabha polls. Sonia felt a new face was needed even to fight assembly elections.
ť Patnaik was seen as a Narasimha Rao man.
ť His tainted past did not fit into Sonia's plans of refurbishing the image of the party with clean, upright leaders.
ť With an eye on the minority vote bank, Sonia wanted to capture the moral high ground vis-a-vis the BJP following anti-Christian violence.

Hints that Patnaik can spell trouble are already being loudly dropped. Even with Patnaik at the helm, the chances for his loyalist legislators at the next hustings were grim. But now they ran the risk of not being renominated. Egged on by Patnaik himself, these legislators have been bombarding Sonia with faxes and telegrams demanding that he be suitably accommodated. Had the party been in power at the Centre, Patnaik might have sought a ministerial berth. But under the circumstances what he is bargaining for is that his successor should be chosen by him. Unless that demand is met, Patnaik could make the going difficult for whoever replaces him.

"I just wanted to strengthen Madam's hands so that she could act freely. Therefore I resigned," Patnaik said soon after he put in his papers. But as a senior minister points out, "He is not likely to forget the insult in a hurry." The subtle threat does not ring hollow, more so since none among those who aspire to replace Patnaik enjoys a sound support base. Pradesh Congress Committee chief Hemananda Biswal has the backing of just about 10 MLAs. Deputy Chief Minister Basanta Biswal is no more than a factional leader with 12 legislators behind him. Former Union minister K.P. Singh Deo's base is similarly limited while the long-standing MP from Koraput, Giridhari Gomango, besides his clean image, has little else to fall back upon.

That notwithstanding, Patnaik's eventual successor will owe his position wholly to Sonia. But if the succession does not have Patnaik's approval, it is certain that the new incumbent would face dissidence from day one in office. Patnaik had proven his nuisance value in 1990 when Basanta Biswal had attempted a coup by taking over as leader of the Congress Legislature Party. Within a year, he faced revolt and a new leader was elected at Patnaik's behest.

Breaking totally free of Patnaik is thus not going to be easy. Not attempting to break free would have proved costlier for the Congress. Patnaik's removal is believed to have taken the sting out of a rising resentment against the Congress Government in Orissa. This impression could once again change if the party is seen kowtowing to Patnaik. In rediscovering the fortunes of the Congress in Orissa, Sonia surely has an unenviable task in hand.