Columns: The Usual Suspects

Columns

India Today, March 22, 1999
March 22, 1999

THE USUAL SUSPECTS
A Presidential Route

For results, pit Vajpayee directly against Sonia

By Swapan Dasgupta

There are two lessons from the most recent controversy over Bihar that warrant attention. Firstly, contrary to everything the publicists of 10 Janpath have maintained, it is now sufficiently clear that Sonia Gandhi too has been bitten by the pull-down-the-government bug. Far from going for the long haul and rebuilding the Congress block by block in the Hindi heartland, the Congress president has shown that when it comes to taking shortcuts, she is about as adroit as both Rajiv Gandhi and Sitaram Kesri. In its relationship to power, the Congress hasn't become a brahmachari. Secondly, and flowing from this woman-in-a-hurry turn, the A.B. Vajpayee Government should have realised that it will not be possible for it to undertake any meaningful legislation. Forget the ambitious National Agenda for Governance, the regime has to apply its mind to governing through executive orders without enacting fresh legislation. Whatever the Lok Sabha proposes, the Rajya Sabha will dispose.

Paradoxically, far from reducing it to a lame-duck status such a state of affairs should present the Vajpayee Government with renewed opportunities. Indira Gandhi lost her parliamentary majority in the Lok Sabha in 1969 and lost a crucial Rajya Sabha vote in 1970 on privy purses. In a spirited campaign, she carried the battle to the people and won the 1971 election in a resounding way. Her message was simple: I need a decisive mandate to pursue a radical agenda.

Vajpayee is not temperamentally combative and prefers a consensual approach. Although a person who comes into his own before large crowds, he prefers the cut and thrust of Parliament to the hurly burly of agitational politics. Today, he has no choice but to reinvent himself. Despite the halo built around Sonia by her spin doctors, the fact is she is an untested leader, her views disproportionately dependent on either her scriptwriters or the person she spoke to last. Compared to the magical spell Vajpayee can weave with words, Sonia is tongue-tied, clueless about details and prefers being a remote icon. It is this advantage that Vajpayee must seize by transforming the encounter into a presidential contest. In a Congress-BJP battle, the Congress is a clear favourite. Transform it into a Sonia-Vajpayee race and the prime minister is not disadvantaged.

The real challenge before Vajpayee is, therefore, to project himself as President Vajpayee leading from the front rather than Prime Minister Vajpayee heading a disparate coalition. Such a strategy has been thrust on him. In the 12 months since the past election, the BJP has gone into hibernation. Its functionaries have lost the ability to respond politically to the Sonia onslaught. Bereft of organisational leadership, it has failed miserably to act as a back up of the Government. On Bihar, the party's role in driving home its moral advantage was zero. It has lost its way.

To arrest this decline, Vajpayee must resume his role as a campaigner. It is only when he starts talking about his achievements and difficulties directly to the people -- as he plans to do in West Bengal and Tamil Nadu next week -- that the BJP and its allies will regain their fight. For his own political sake, Vajpayee must learn to overcome humility and an exaggerated sense of restraint. He must stop himself and the Government being either undersold or drowned in meaningless flattery. After a wasted year, Vajpayee needs to address his biggest failing -- the lack of a clear communications strategy.

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