February 23, 1998

POSSIBLE COALITIONS

SHAKY FUTURE

If the 12th Lok Sabha turns out to be as deeply hung as its predecessor, as the INDIA TODAY-CSDS opinion poll indicates, there will be several coalition possibilities after the elections. Taking the strength of the three major players -- the BJP, the Congress and the United Front (UF)--as reflected in the opinion poll, here are the three most likely scenarios for each of them, based on political assumptions concerning the strengths of the smaller alliance partners.

By Sumit Mitra

Scenario 1: BJP needs to split the UF or the Congress

WITH 214 seats, the BJP and its pre-poll allies, being the largest group in the Lok Sabha, can expect the first call to form the government. It will still fall 58 short of majority. To make up the gap, it will need support from regional parties like the TDP, DMK and AGP, as well as from the BSP which makes no distinction between the BJP and the Congress. However, to make a BJP-led government possible, the DMK must deliver at least 15 members, TDP 25, AGP 5, BSP 10, and others five. In addition, the BJP may even attempt a split in the Congress. In December, it came within a whisker of that. If a third of the estimated 165 Congress members break rank -- the minimum required under the law -- and join it, the BJP-led coalition's strength will reach an unstoppable 329. An impossible task.

Scenario 2: Congress has to wean away UF partners

WITH 165 seats, the Congress can still form a government, provided it is able to carve the UF and ensure the support of the Left. In that case, the Samajwadi Party of Mulayam Singh Yadav will be required to provide 17 seats, TMC 15, Congress(T) 1, and RJD 16, not to speak of 53 Left Front members. Given a choice between the BJP and the Congress, the left parties are likely to choose the latter. With five more members from other parties, the coalition's tally just about crosses the threshold of 272. The Congress may even forget the Jain Commission and forgive the DMK, thus getting 15 more members. In that process, the UF partners may play a crucial role in the selection of the Congress parliamentary leader and demand key portfolios for themselves.

Scenario 3: UF-led government: back to square one

IF the UF with its 127 members can stay firm in its refusal to support a Congress government, the Congress will face a crisis of existence. If it is to avoid a break-up, it must either support a BJP government or extend support to a UF government for the third time in two years. In 1996, the UF, with 179 members, was able to cobble up a numerical superiority over the Congress' 142. This time round, the ratio will turn adverse for the UF, so much that it can't again keep the Congress outside the government. With the Left Front emerging as the UF's senior partner, West Bengal Chief Minister Jyoti Basu may well be the UF's prime ministerial choice. If the Congress members swallow their pride, and accept a 'red' prime minister in exchange for ministerial berths, the UF can pull off a broad centre-left coalition with an unassailable strength of 292.

(BJP, Congress and UF figures are based on opinion poll, the rest are assumptions.)

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