March 23, 1998

Singh's fourth term in Himachal Pradesh proved to be the shortest as he was unable to wean away even one MLA to muster a majority.

By Ramesh Vinayak

It was an unexpected anti-climax to the political soap opera in Himachal Pradesh. With the assembly elections throwing up a hung House, an intense power struggle between the Congress and the BJP-Himachal Vikas Congress (HVC) combine ensued. Less than a week after Virbhadra Singh pulled off a coup of sorts by forming a Congress government with the help of an Independent BJP rebel MLA, the "Raja of Rampur Bushehar" lost out in yet another gamble, despite being just a whisker away from the majority figure of 33.

Soon after the Assembly met for the trial of strength on March 12, Singh resigned. His action was prompted by the failure of the Congress to poach on HVC MLAs. Elections were held last month to 64 of the state's 68 assembly seats. The Congress' tally stood at 31 plus one Independent's support. The BJP, which won 28 seats, had the support of four MLAs of the HVC, including its president, former communications minister Sukh Ram. In fact, calling the assembly session in advance was part of the Congress' strategy to draw out two of the four HVC MLAs who went into hiding soon after they got elected. The Congress had hoped to contact the elusive members once they were back in Shimla.

But in the run up to the trial of strength, Singh was outmanoeuvred by the BJP and Sukh Ram, who is supporting the saffron party's bid to form a government. On the eve of the crucial floor test, the two "vulnerable" MLAs -- Mansa Ram and Parkash Chand -- resigned from the HVC and formed the Himachal Kranti Party, only to merge with the BJP, raising its strength to 30.

The well-orchestrated "split-and-merger" not only pre-empted the Congress game plan to woo or even kidnap the two MLAs but also fortified the BJP and HVC's defences against defections. Says a senior state Congress leader: "After this tactical move (by the BJP-HVC), the Congress had no aces left up its sleeves." In his statement read out in the House, Singh said: "I have never believed in horsetrading or offering inducements to win over support." Though Singh's fourth -- and the shortest -- term ended with that, it was just the beginning of another power game. No sooner had he stepped down than the BJP geared up to stake its claim. The BJP-HVC combine with 32 MLAs is one short of the elusive majority. On the other hand, the Congress has asked Governor V.S. Rama Devi to place the House under suspended animation till the third week of June when elections to the remaining four assembly seats are scheduled to be held. "The outcome of these seats will decide the issue of majority," says Singh, who met the Governor with his 32 MLAs to drive home the point that even the BJP was in no position to secure a majority. The Congress' plea was that allowing the BJP-HVC to form the government would lead to horsetrading and instability.

However, the BJP is determined to take a shot at power. "Fair play demands that the Governor give us a chance to prove majority," says state BJP chief and chief ministerial candidate Prem Kumar Dhumal. "By not inviting us, the Governor would be committing a second mistake after first calling the Congress." The BJP's hopes hinge on a switch-over by the Independent MLA who had joined the Congress as an associate member. The BJP high command has, in fact, directed its former chief minister Shanta Kumar to woo back the Independent who was a loyalist of his before going over to the Congress.

Given the equal strength of the rival parties in the Assembly, Governor Rama Devi is faced with a Hobson's choice. In all likelihood, she, guided by the fact that the post-poll BJP-HVC alliance doesn't have the majority, may recommend President's rule in the state till the crucial elections to the four assembly segments decide who will rule in Shimla.

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