March 23, 1998

His coalition partners want to hold him back, but Naidu is under pressure from his TDP to back the BJP.

By Javed M Ansari and A K Menon

Of all the regional chieftains, Nara Chandrababu Naidu is perhaps the only leader whose political stature and importance has remained undiminished despite a setback in the just-concluded elections. In 1996, his Telugu Desam Party (TDP) had won just 17 seats -- less than the Congress tally in the state -- but that was enough to pitchfork the Andhra Pradesh chief minister into the role of kingmaker at the Centre with a major say in national politics.

This time round, the TDP's tally is down to 12, but Naidu continues to be on the national centrestage. To some extent, the life-support system of a Vajpayee regime lies in his hands. Though Naidu is under pressure from both his United Front (UF) partners and the BJP lobbyists, so far he has only said that he will not do "anything that directly or indirectly helps the Congress".

Naidu's demeanour at the two UF Core Committee meetings and his refusal to even vote with the UF and Congress on the election of the Speaker -- even that will help the Congress, he says -- are indications of his determination to go along with the popular mood in his party. While the changed ground realities in the state have pushed Naidu away from the UF, severing ties with the Front will by no means be an easy decision. As the Front's convener, he stands to lose some of his credibility.

UF leaders, fearing an imminent denouement, have pulled out all stops to persuade Naidu not to leave the front. Former prime minister V.P. Singh has been exerting moral pressure: "Friends and allies should never be given up." Others like DMK chief and Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M. Karunanidhi, with whom Naidu has a good rapport, have been warning him of the dangers of aligning with the BJP. "You enjoy a predominant position in the UF; with the BJP your clout will be considerably reduced," he told his friend over the phone. In fact, a section of the UF is of the view that Naidu should be given some latitude so that he doesn't snap his umbilical cord with the UF. They feel that the future of the secular forces lies, after all, in keeping the flock together and not ostracising each other.

Clearly, with its strength down from 177 to 94, and the BJP all set to take charge, the contradictions within the UF are coming to the fore. Ranged on one side are the Left, the Samajwadi Party, DMK-TMC and the JD who are prepared to bury the hatchet with the Congress in order to prevent the BJP from forming a government. On the other hand, the TDP and the AGP view the Congress as the main enemy in their states. "I appreciate the difficulties of my colleagues; they have to reckon with the BJP. But I am helpless. I cannot commit political suicide by helping the Congress," says Naidu. In its eagerness to get the requisite numbers, the BJP is earnestly wooing Naidu, even forcing local ally, Lakshmi Parvati's TDP(NTR), to unilaterally call off the alliance.

Indeed, Naidu's predicament is unenviable. Back home, he is under pressure from the Khamma lobby in his party -- led by NTR's son Harikrishna and some of his new MPs -- to support the BJP at the Centre. The ground realities too are weighing on Naidu. Despite his hectic campaigning, the TDP led in only 90 of the 294 assembly segments. The party has no representation in eight of the 23 districts and has been considerably weakened in Rayalseema and the coastal regions.

Given the inevitability of a BJP government at the Centre, the section of the UF favouring some leeway to Naidu, may yet prevail on the others to adopt a wait-and-watch approach. Their last hope: at some stage they could use Naidu to bring down a wobbly BJP government.

Write to us | Subscriptions

© Living Media India Ltd