March 23, 1998
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STATES: POST-POLL SCENARIO Ominous Portents KARNATAKA
Trends on the first day of counting itself showed that the JD's grip on the state was slipping. Patel, whose worst fears seemed to be coming true, locked himself up in Cauvery, his official residence, refusing to take calls or see visitors. All he did was fire fusillades at "troublemakers" H.D. Deve Gowda, Ramakrishna Hegde and former Union minister R.L. Jalappa, who won the Chikballapur seat on a Congress ticket after defecting from the JD shortly before the elections.
It is this kind of attitude which alienated Patel from the party, say state JD leaders who blame the party's debacle squarely on the chief minister. In fact, Patel on many occasions is believed to have left matters of administration to his principal secretary B.S. Patil with whom legislators were hesitant to discuss their problems. "The choice was to stay or defect to another party," says one MLA. "But with two more years in office, you learn to grin and bear with his antics." Others like former industry minister R.V. Deshpande, who quit along with six legislators and three ministers to join hands with Hegde, say Deve Gowda ruined the JD in Karnataka by treating the party like his personal fiefdom. The former prime minister, who won by a narrow margin in Hassan and whose son H.D. Kumaraswamy lost in Kanakapura, is a chastened man. "Success and defeat are part of the game," he now says. What has been worrying the party cadres is that at no time has the JD been at such a low point than it is now. And then there is the Hegde factor. Hegde's new political front, the Lok Shakti, managed to win three seats, including the prestigious Chikkodi and Bagalkot constituencies, where it fielded former ministers Ramesh Jigajinagi and Ajay Kumar Sarnaik. In fact, a day before three ministers crossed over, an apprehensive Patel had appealed to Hegde in public to "desist from contacting my ministers and legislators". Though the former chief minister says he would not like to destabilise the Patel Government, he feels mid-term polls to the Assembly are inevitable. Much will depend on the new government at the Centre. While it is unlikely that the Patel Government will be dismissed, the possibility of Hegde persuading his old friend Patel to join his party is also not being ruled out. But, says Patel: "I am nobody's man. I am on my own." Despite the sense of despondency in the state JD camp, Deve Gowda is optimistic. "I built the JD brick by brick and now we will be stronger and work harder," he says, determined not to let the party die. "All those who have left are those who have made no contribution but have just eaten the fruits of my labour." For a man who hogged the limelight after the success of the JD in 1996 and is being blamed for its defeat now, going on the defensive is only natural. --Stephen David MADHYA PRADESH
Over the past four years, the affable "Diggi Raja", as Digvijay is known in political circles, had managed to survive due to a string of circumstances, including the exile of Arjun and Madhavrao Scindia from the party, coupled with shrewd manoeuvering and brinkmanship. Arjun and Scindia are now back in the party and have joined others who are gunning for Digvijay. Arjun is blaming him for his defeat from Hoshangabad. Scindia and S.C. Shukla say the state Government's "corrupt image" was responsible for the Congress' poor showing. Kamal Nath and Motilal Vora, their eyes firmly set on Digvijay's chair, would not give him any credit for their victories, while old foe Ajit Jogi has renewed his demand for a tribal chief minister. Worse, Kesri's imminent departure is set to rob Digvijay of valuable support. Part of the survival strategy will unfold some time next week, when Digvijay is expected to demand the resignation of the 26 Cabinet ministers, more than half the 47-member ministry, in whose assembly segments the Congress lost. Says Nath: "They must be prepared to pay the price for their non-performance." But Digivijay's defence is that those demanding his ouster have themselves fared badly. Arjun was defeated for the second time running. Scindia saw his lakh-plus leads in Gwalior come down to just 22,000, while his lieutenant Balendu Shukla finished a poor third in Bhind. Arvind Netam, another Digvijay critic who left the Congress to join the BSP, lost his security deposit in both the constituencies he contested. On the other hand, the three candidates closest to Digvijay -- younger brother Laxman Singh, Kantilal Bhuria and Charandas Mahant -- won their seats comfortably. Pointing out that the Congress' vote share had increased by 9 per cent -- it got 39.40 per cent as against the BJP's 45.73 per cent -- he said, "The people of the state voted for Vajpayee because he is from Gwalior, but when it comes to local issues they will vote for us." What may ultimately come to Digvijay's rescue is, ironically, the threat of his Government's dismissal after the BJP comes to power. As leader of the Opposition Vikram Verma says: "We will seek the dismissal of the Government because of the reign of terror unleashed by feudal elements in rural areas." That threat may force the warring factions in the ruling party to come together and put up a united front against the BJP. --N.K. Singh HARYANA
His oft-repeated claim, "I will quit rather than modify or relax prohibition", is a thing of the past. The severe drubbing his Haryana Vikas Party (HVP) and coalition ally, the BJP, received in the elections was due to an anti-incumbency factor fuelled by the failure of the prohibition policy and the Government's non-performance. The ruling combine had to pay dearly: it retained only two of the seven seats it had won in the 1996 elections.
With an annual revenue loss of Rs 800 crore due to prohibition, the chief minister found his promises on ushering development and employment heading nowhere. Worse, the state Government's efforts to make up for the revenue loss by hiking taxes and power tariff for farmers, coupled with the police firing on agitating farmers last year, robbed Bansi Lal of his support base among Jats. Also, with the BJP Government in Delhi unable to fulfil its promise on octroi abolition, a heavy dose of taxation on traders cost the incumbents urban votes. The poll debacle and the BJP's changed political equations with the Haryana Lok Dal (Rashtriya) led by sworn enemy Om Prakash Chautala -- who has extended support to the BJP at the Centre -- has forced Bansi Lal to review the dry laws. "We cannot pay the political price for his prohibition policy," says a state BJP leader. Not that the party would dump Bansi Lal. But having accepted Chautala's support, it has caused jitters in the Bansi Lal camp. The chief minister has been under pressure not only from within the HVP-BJP ranks but also from his family, particularly his son and heir-apparent Surender Singh. "What was an electoral USP (prohibition) has now become a costly political liability," says Singh. It's a Catch-22 situation for Bansi Lal. Scrapping prohibition would no doubt generate funds to kickstart the development process. But discarding a winning election plank that boosted his political fortunes in 1996 will put a question mark on his credibility as a tough administrator; it could even trigger an agitation from the pro-prohibition lobby and lead to a spurt in crime in the state. The "aya ram gaya ram" script that Haryana is famous for may well be rewritten. --Ramesh Vinayak |
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© Living Media India Ltd |
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Chief Minister J.H. Patel's cup of sorrow is close to
brimming over. With Karnataka's 3.34 crore-strong electorate returning only three of its
candidates (as against 16 in 1996) and bringing the vote share down by 13.7 per cent from
the last elections, the ruling Janata Dal (JD) has been given a resounding rebuff. 
When Digvijay Singh called on Sitaram
Kesri last week, rather than quizzing the Madhya Pradesh chief minister on the defeat of
the party in the state, the Congress leader was more interested in discussing the defeat
of Arjun Singh. For much of the time, the two talked about the senior Singh, for whom both
share a common dislike. But Kesri's more than healthy interest in Arjun's humiliation was
little consolation to Digvijay, who has presided over the rout of the Congress in the
state for two years in a row.Suddenly, the chief minister is a troubled man. Gone is the
infectious, full-throated laughter, his broad forehead has developed deep furrows, and the
ever-smiling face wears a sombre look these days. And there are reasons. No sooner had the
results been declared than his detractors within the party began demanding his scalp,
blaming his Government for the rout. 
On February 16, the day Haryana went to
polls for the Lok Sabha, Chief Minister Bansi Lal approved an ordinance to make the law on
prohibition, his pet project, more stringent. Little did he realise that within a week
he'd be forced to change tack. 
