Cover Story: Assembly Polls; Fighting for Survival

When the BJP went on an ally acquisition binge just before this year's Lok Sabha elections, somebody remarked that Indian politics had entered the age of the shotgun wedding. If that be the yardstick, it is somehow wickedly apt that Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee's 18-party coalition government should be permitted the shortest honeymoon in Indian history. As the BJP approaches the November 25 assembly elections in Delhi, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Mizoram, it is gripped by an unprecedented despondency. For the first time in India's memory, a newly chosen national ruling party faces its first set of assembly elections on the backfoot. In 1977, the Janata Party repeated its remarkable general election victory in a series of triumphs in assembly polls across the country. The Congress did likewise in 1980 and 1985. In 1990, V.P. Singh's Janata Dal unfurled the banner of OBC Raj by installing Yadav chief ministers in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Truly, state elections are not supposed to become a popularity test for a Union government so early in its life.

In the make-believe world of the political theorist, it is easy to imagine that state polls have no relevance at all for national governments. The sheer fluidity of Indian politics -- accentuated by coalition regimes and repeated mid-term polls -- tells another story. While local issues do determine the voter's choice, he is not oblivious of the national mood, that phenomenon which defies definition but destroys fortunes. Had this not been so, the Congress setback in the 1966 Lok Sabha polls would not have been followed by an utter rout in a round of assembly elections the following year. The first signs of discontent against Indira Gandhi in her final term came to be noticed only in January 1983 when she was trounced in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka. By the winter of 1994, the Congress was convinced the people had been disturbed enough by unstable coalitions to realise the virtues of their party. Then came the drubbing in Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka -- and the clock began ticking for P.V. Narasimha Rao. In a year and a half, he was voted out of office.

Given this, Vajpayee's recent statement that the upcoming polls will not be a "referendum" on his government is a little simplistic. With 590 assembly seats and 81 million voters spread across three states, for north India alone this is a mini-general election. Vajpayee can ignore its import only at his own peril; and in an age when the voter is notoriously fickle, a government is never too young to start worrying. In a sense, the paradox of a popular prime minister and a listless government is mirrored in the states. Bhairon Singh Shekhawat's charisma, Sushma Swaraj's absolute identification with the middle class and Digvijay Singh's dexterity at survival -- how many Congress chief ministers have lasted a full term? -- will be challenged by that strange creature called the "anti-incumbency factor". Those, broadly, are the battlelines. The prize is the heart of India.

SNAPSHOT

SUSHMA SWARAJ, 46
Chief Minister Delhi
Political background: Rising star in the BJP, was a Union minister and likely to be one again if the party loses Delhi.
Party mood: Sombre
Election issues: Power, water, crime, onions, potatoes, salt.
SELLING LINE
"What we've done in five years, Congress couldn't in 40."

Party Position (Vidhan Sabha Elections 1993)
Total Seats: 70
BJP: 49
Congress 14
Others: 7
Main Rival: Shiela Dikshit, Congress

One of the advantages of being the national capital is to evoke the sentiment that you belong to everybody. Delhi, the migrant's paradise, is discovering that this can be a mixed blessing. For years, its politics was dominated by Punjabi-speaking refugees and money-speaking Baniyas. Next surged the Hindi-speaking Jats, whose finest hour was Sahib Singh Verma's anointment as chief minister in 1996. This year, all hell broke loose. Delhi's political parties confronted multiculturalism with a vengeance.

In the ruling BJP, the bugle of revolt was sounded by those who accused the party of "ignoring south Indians" as a whole and "neglecting Poorvanchalis", the Delhiites from eastern Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. The Congress had its own problems. Sharad Pawar, the great Maratha himself, was upset at supporter Hari Shankar being denied a ticket. Arjun Singh from Madhya Pradesh who, to be fair, once served as South Delhi's MP, pleaded unsuccessfully for nominations for two acolytes: Tinkle Bindra and Harcharan Singh Josh.

The geographical spread of Delhi's politics is becoming almost comical. Appropriately then the two contenders for the crown of chief minister are born-again Dilliwallahs. Sushma Swaraj was a minister in the Haryana government in 1977 before Delhi sent her to the Lok Sabha. Shiela Dikshit is a Sardarni who married into an old Congress family from Uttar Pradesh.

Swaraj was happily ensconced as Union minister for both communications and information and broadcasting when, a few weeks ago, she was virtually coerced into heading a rescue operation for the Delhi BJP. The party unit is split between Madan Lal Khurana and Verma, both former chief ministers, Swaraj became the compromise candidate to succeed Verma after a summer of discontent which left Delhi hot, thirsty and with a thinner wallet.

No wonder the attractively named A.S. Lovely -- at 29, the youngest Congress candidate in the fray -- has coined this campaign jingle: Bijli paani aloo pyaaz, sapnon mein aate hain aaj. (Power, water, potatoes and onions are available only in our dreams). Uneasy about the extent of disgruntlement, Verma decided not to contest. That hasn't saved him from embarrassment though.

This past week Ved Singh, a BJP rebel who was standing as a Samata Party candidate from Verma's pocket borough of Nangloi, was murdered. The killing is seen as part of a local gang war -- in which Verma's nephews may also be implicated. It is just the sort of last minute publicity the beleaguered ruling party could have done without.

The chief minister herself is putting up a brave front. Alluding to the recent rumours of a salt shortage she is belligerence personified at election meeting after election meeting: "My inquiries reveal that some low-level Congressmen created this salt scarcity ... A party which can so brazenly shield those involved in the massacre of 3,000 Sikhs in 1984 can as easily mix mobil in mustard oil so the government gets discredited and can also make salt disappear."

Strong words; but to BJP opponents empty ones. The Congress is banking on three factors. One, BJP misrule. Two, Sonia Gandhi's liberal use of the broom: 33 of the 70 candidates are new faces. Three, Dikshit's ability to unite the party and even accommodate the Sajjan Kumar and Jagdish Tytler camps, thus far under the "1984 cloud". Finally, there is the scent of power which is so very distinctive of Congressmen. As one of them says: "If we can't win Delhi now, when can we?" By the end of the month, he may have a few answers.

SNAPSHOT

DIGVIJAY SINGH, 51
Chief Minister Madhya Pradesh
Political background: Was a novice when Arjun Singh picked him for the job in 1993. He's left the guru far behind.
Party mood: Divided, defensive
Election issues: Corruption, anti-farmer firing, stability.
SELLING LINE
"How can you trust the BJP after its mess in Delhi?"

Party Position (Vidhan Sabha Elections 1993)
Total Seats: 320
BJP: 112
Congress 175
Others: 33

Main Rival: Sunderlal Patwa, BJP

This man just can't stop smiling. He's got his back to the wall, the pundits say his government's days are numbered and yet Digvijay Singh just can't stop smiling. The handsome princeling is something of the Artful Dodger in contemporary Indian politics. He has achieved a near miracle simply by surviving a full five-year term in a minefield of a state unit.

For that reason alone, Digvijay will go into the record books. The entry against his name will be even longer though if he manages to lead the Congress to a second term in office. Few expect him to. Certainly, if you go by the results of the 1998 Lok Sabha elections, which the BJP swept, he is heading for a resounding defeat. Nevertheless, he is not going down without a fight.

The first feud was an intra-party one, the traditional jockeying for tickets. Digvijay began at a disadvantage. Arjun Singh, once his mentor but now a rival, was cosying up to Sonia Gandhi. Luck came the chief minister's way when Kamal Nath, a foe turned friend, sought a meeting with Sonia and persuaded her to reconstitute a selection committee for party nominees. Arjun, already on a weak wicket having lost two successive Lok Sabha polls, simply gave up.

The upshot is that of the 320 assembly constituencies, the Digvijay-Kamal Nath faction has been awarded 177. The grand alliance formed by Arjun, Madhavrao Scindia, Ajit Jogi, Motilal Vora and the Shukla brothers (Shyama Charan and Vidya Charan) has been left with only 125. Nevertheless, Arjun has got a ticket for his son Ajay and for ally Arvind Netam's brother Shiv. Vora, another former chief minister, too has founded a political dynasty by ensuring a nomination for son Arun.

Digvijay finds himself in a funny position in the sense that his problems will be compounded if he leads his party to victory. Should that happen, half a dozen claimants for the chief minister's post will suddenly emerge. Of course, the BJP is quite sure the Congress won't have to bother about choosing a leader for the next government. The saffron party is looking to reclaim the throne which it was deprived of when President's rule was imposed in Madhya Pradesh following the demolition of the Babri Masjid.

In such continuity lies the BJP's biggest problem. Sunderlal Patwa, the lacklustre chief minister in 1991-92, has cornered a chunk of the party nominations for his supporters. This has not quite pleased the BJP's Jat leader Vikram Varma who is also leader of the Opposition in the outgoing assembly. That apart, V.K. Saklecha, a former chief minister who was denied a party symbol, walked out and became a rebel candidate. The BJP insists he is a spent force who will do no damage to the party. Perhaps -- but the once tightly knit BJP must be blushing.

There are other changes in the BJP too. The Mandalisation of Hindutva has meant an OBC thrust to the party's strategy. Uma Bharti and Kalyan Singh, imported from Uttar Pradesh, are key campaigners. Both are Lodh OBCs. In fact, the distribution of tickets by the BJP had social engineering written all over it: 62 OBCs, 44 Scheduled Castes, 44 Scheduled Tribes. It is a little amusing that both the BJP and the Congress are seeking the voter's blessing as opposition parties. The BJP has spoken of five years of "dismal governance" by Digvijay and brought up corruption charges related to mining contracts as well as firing on a group of farmers and the rape of nuns in Jhabua recently.

Digvijay, on his part, has pointed fingers at the Centre. He has cited the Vajpayee regime's sloppy performance and galloping prices as reasons to persist with a tried and tested Congress. The BJP has retaliated by stressing the virtues of being ruled by the same party at the Centre and in the state capital: Ek vote se do sarkar, 50 saal mein pehli baar (One vote and two BJP governments, for the first time in 50 years).

A second government is guaranteed in another way though. This will be Madhya Pradesh's last election as a united entity, there being a consensus on the creation of Chhattisgarh. India's most expansive state has to give its politicians that one last benediction before it is partitioned.