August 24, 1998

The Cauvery agreement gives the AIADMK chief yet another excuse to bring Vajpayee's government perilously close to a downfall.

By K M Thomas and Harish Gupta

It is only in India that a national achievement ends up as a near-political disaster. When Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee negotiated an agreement with the chief ministers of Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Kerala and Pondicherry over the sharing of Cauvery waters -- a problem that has plagued every government from Indira Gandhi onwards -- he expected to be lauded. Indeed, there were celebrations in Thanjavur, Trichy and Thiruvarur in the Cauvery delta.

Farmers burst crackers and a happy general secretary of the Cauvery Delta Farmers' Welfare Association, S. Ranganathan, said, "This is a great breakthrough. We hope no politics will sour the issue again." Added Chief Minister M. Karunanidhi: "This is a victory for the people of the four states. It was the persuasiveness and charisma of Vajpayee and the strength of Tamil Nadu's argument that brought Karnataka around." His Karnataka counterpart J.H. Patel described it as a "game no one lost". Even the taciturn Tamil Maanila Congress (TMC) leader G.K. Moopanar found words of praise for the agreement.

Yet, paradoxically, it was thanks to this triumph that the BJP-led Government came perilously close to being deprived of a majority. At one time it even seemed that Vajpayee would have the dubious distinction of delivering his maiden Independence Day speech from the Red Fort as a "caretaker" prime minister.

Playing spoilsport, as usual, was AIADMK General Secretary J. Jayalalitha,whose 27 MPs can make or break the Vajpayee regime. For Jayalalitha, the Cauvery agreement meant only one thing: a political victory for arch-foe Karunanidhi. Presenting the agreement as a betrayal of Tamil Nadu's interests, she demanded that the original Cauvery award -- fiercely opposed by Karnataka -- be notified. "A golden chance for implementing the tribunal order awarded seven years ago has been frittered away by Karunanidhi," she said. Added AIADMK's Union Minister of State for Personnel and Public Grievances R. Janarthanan: "It's a wedding without a mangalsutra." Supported by her four alliance partners, Jayalalitha demanded Vajpayee make amends immediately or face the consequences. The prime minister stuck to his guns and Jayalalitha -- encouraged in no small measure by Janata Party President Subramanian Swamy who had vowed to topple Vajpayee by August 15 -- was forced to choose.

That she deferred the "appropriate decision" for a more "appropriate time" had less to do with any continuing fascination for the BJP or even Vajpayee. Jayalalitha's relationship with the BJP has well and truly soured after the election. Though she has refrained from attacking Vajpayee personally, she is contemptuous of the BJP's Tamil Nadu leadership and distrustful of Home Minister L.K. Advani whose RSS associate S. Gurumurthy she accuses of hobnobbing with the DMK and mounting a propaganda offensive against her. Her only point of contact with the Government in Delhi is either through her own ministers or via George Fernandes and Dilip Ray, both from non-BJP parties. The prime minister's former political adviser Pramod Mahajan may end up as a new conduit, but the relationship is yet to be tested. Ever insecure, Jayalalitha believes the BJP has struck a deal with Karunanidhi over the Jain Commission report and even charmed its way into the hearts of at least two of her alliance partners -- MDMK's V. Gopalasamy (Vaiko) and Tamizhaga Rajiv Congress' V. Ramamurthy.

At the same time, Jayalalitha is slowly re-establishing her links with the Congress. She was happy when Congress MPs attacked Karunanidhi and the DMK during the Lok Sabha debate on the Jain Commission report and despatched a bouquet of flowers to Congress spokesman Ajit Jogi for his intervention. Though she has had no direct contact with Congress President Sonia Gandhi, it is clear that the earlier tensions between the two women have eased considerably. On August 13, at a social gathering of Congress leaders, Sonia was asked whether she was in touch with Jayalalitha. "In politics, everybody is in touch with everybody," she replied. Sonia has deputed K. Natwar Singh to liaise with Jayalalitha, while Swamy, in any case, remains the permanent link between the Congress, aiadmk and Mulayam Singh Yadav's National Democratic Front (NDF).

Yet it is clear that relations between Jayalalitha and the Congress haven't developed to the point where either side is entirely comfortable with the other. Despite pressure from the Left, NDF and Swamy to take the initiative, Sonia still nurtures the belief that it is premature to stage a coup against the Vajpayee Government. During the latest Cauvery crisis, she was distinctly unenthusiastic. She allowed Natwar Singh to proceed on a foreign visit and ended all speculation by telling the media last Thursday that "there is no possibility of Congress forming the government" although it was "ready to shoulder the responsibility".

Perhaps it was the lukewarm response from the Congress that forced Jayalalitha to desist from putting the knife into Vajpayee. On August 11, even as he notified the new Cauvery agreement, the prime minister invited Ramamurthy and S. Ramdoss of the Pattali Makkal Katchi (PMK) to his Race Course Road office. He impressed upon them some home truths to be passed on to Jayalalitha. "Remember, she will have a hostile government in the state and the Centre if the BJP Government goes," he is understood to have told the two leaders.

Whether Jayalalitha was impressed is unknown, but her alliance partners acknowledge the advantages of sticking with the BJP for the moment. "We know it is suicidal to oppose a Cauvery settlement that has so much popular support," said a senior MDMK leader. In addition, the PMK and MDMK have strong ideological objections to allying with either the Congress or the DMK. At the same time, they are not inclined to promote a third front because Tamil Nadu politics is essentially a two-horse race. These factors, coupled with Ramamurthy's satisfaction with his own job as petroleum minister, made Jayalalitha realise that she could not definitely bank on the support of at least eight of her alliance's MPs.

On the face of it, the alliance has authorised Jayalalitha to exercise the final choice. In reality, however, the AIADMK chief knows she cannot bulldoze her way. In the battle with the DMK-TMC-Left alliance, she needs the support of the smaller parties. Jayalalitha can bark at Vajpayee but she doesn't have the reassurance to bite.

On his part, Vajpayee was disinclined to paint Jayalalitha into an impossible corner. Despite advice from BJP hard-liners who felt that the Cauvery issue was the most appropriate occasion for the Government to call her bluff and play martyr, Vajpayee wanted to offer Jayalalitha an opportunity to save face. The move wasn't born out of magnanimity alone. If the AIADMK combine pulled out, the BJP wasn't ready with an alternative scheme to save the Government.

As the prime minister saw it, minimising the risks was more prudent than tempting fate and forcing the emergence of an alternative. This, despite an Aaj Tak-mode opinion poll in Chennai, Mumbai and Delhi that indicated a 71 per cent disapproval of any attempt to pull down the Government over the Cauvery issue.

It turned out to be a wise decision. Vajpayee's emissaries, Fernandes and Mahajan, arrived at Jayalalitha's Poes Garden residence last Wednesday morning to a strange welcome. Initially, Jayalalitha refused to see them and dismissed them over the intercom. By the afternoon, she softened somewhat and invited them over. But she subjected them to a savage tongue-lashing over the Government's handling of the Cauvery dispute. It is not that she had any principled objection to the amicable sharing of river waters. Her anger stemmed from the political advantage Karunanidhi drew from the settlement.

Despite saying that the agreement "was not a personal victory", Karunanidhi has carefully used the Cauvery issue to project himself. In Jayalalitha's black and white world, this constituted the BJP's betrayal of its principal ally and was unacceptable. "If I had been consulted on the settlement, I would have prepared the ground to upstage Karunanidhi," she is understood to have told the duo. They listened in silence.

Fortunately for Vajpayee, the tirade was not a prelude to a formal parting of ways. Also unsure of the alternative, Jayalalitha was amenable to a renewed deal. In concrete terms, she demanded more ministerships, more powers to her ministers and the appointment and removal of key officials. By a curious coincidence, Enforcement Directorate chief M.K. Bezbaruah, who was handling the cases of alleged FERA violation by her associate Sasikala Natarajan, was transferred the next day. The Home Ministry put out that the transfer was prompted by Delhi Chief Minister Sahib Singh Verma's request for a competent official to handle public transport in the capital.

This week will indicate whether or not Vajpayee is willing to play ball and oblige Jayalalitha. But even if most of Jayalalitha's demands are conceded, it will be difficult for the Government to put a time frame on her demand for the dismissal of the Karunanidhi Government. Furthermore, there is no guarantee that old demands will not be substituted by new ones as Jayalalitha struggles with her court cases and her battle with the DMK.

A stage is fast approaching when the shenanigans of Jayalalitha will rebound on both the prime minister and his party. Before that happens, either of the two will have to go their separate ways. But that's easier said than done. The precarious arithmetic of the 12th Lok Sabha doesn't leave either Vajpayee or Jayalalitha with too many choices. The political uncertainty witnessed last week looks like being repeated endlessly, further eroding the credibility of the Government. Maybe that is why Sonia isn't in a tearing hurry.

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