May 25, 1998

A mortified Nawaz Sharif will try not to let India have the nuclear upper hand.

By Zahid Hussain

Pakistan is poised to detonate its own nuclear bomb in response to India's move to establish itself as a full-fledged nuclear power. The desperate attempt by US President Bill Clinton to restrain Islamabad seems to have little chance of succeeding as Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif faces mounting domestic political pressure to match India's nuclear tests immediately. The Government has made it clear that it will not buckle under any international pressure, even though US Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbot flew into Islamabad in a bid to dissuade Pakistani leaders.

Most analysts believe that the Government has already taken a decision and it is just a matter of time before it carries out the test. "We can conduct a nuclear test explosion at very short notice," says Abdul Qadeer Khan, head of Pakistan's nuclear programme. His most famous recent statement: "Like a cook, I am waiting for the Government's instructions." The Government seems in no position to ignore public pressure, which has reached a frenzied pitch. Almost all political parties, from the liberal Pakistan People's Party (PPP) to right- wing Islamist groups like Jamaat-i-Islami, say Sharif should not allow the Indian move to go unanswered. Benazir Bhutto, the main opposition leader, has urged the Government to detonate the bomb without any delay.

Pakistani officials and politicians argue that the test explosions by India present the most serious and immediate security threat to their country. "The tests will give India the capability of manufacturing hydrogen bombs and also miniaturising its nuclear weapons for delivery by a variety of long and short missile systems," maintains Agha Shahi, former foreign minister. Defence observers also fear that having demonstrated its capability as a nuclear weapons power, India is now ready to sign the CTBT and become a member of the exclusive nuclear club. "We have no other choice but to carry out our own nuclear test as the credibility of Pakistan's deterrent has been called in to question by the Indian behaviour," said Maleeha Lodhi, former Pakistani ambassador to Washington. However, there are some moderate voices who call for restraint. "When others are loosing their heads, we must keep calm," maintains Mahbubul Haq, former finance minister. "Those advocating nuclear tests should understand that the move won't be in Pakistan's interests."

One analyst has cautioned the Government not to take a hasty decision under domestic political pressure as it would instantly evoke much harsher international sanctions against Pakistan. And given the state of Pakistan's economy and its dependence for financial support on institutions such as the IMF and the World Bank, it may be much harder hit than India if it invited sanctions by conducting a nuclear test. But there appears no hope that the Government will pay any heed to a minority moderate view.

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