Columns: Flipside

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India Today, April 26, 1999
April 26, 1999

FLIPSIDE
Analyse This

By Dilip Bobb

Now is the time for all aid to come together for the good of the party. In Delhi's political going-round-in-circles, aid stands for Analyst in Demand. Which, in market terms, has risen in direct proportion to the fall of governments. The expert analysts, also known as The Talk Show Tribe, include out-of-work politicians, journalists who frequent the India International Centre, and advisers to the government who have been sacked or resigned. Last week, demand peaked as Jayalalitha fired Agni 2, or the Final Solution. To clear up the confusion, here's how a prominent aid sees the situation developing.

ABCD (A Badly Confused Desi): Oh Wise, Wisest and Wizened One, what is the fate of the BJP government? Or the date, whichever comes to you first.

AID: Its days are numbered. By that I mean it's now a numbers game. It's like a lottery. If you pick the right sequence of numbers, you win. There are any number of parties willing to form the Right sequence. Even the Left, for that matter.

ABCD: That we all know. But even with the Left saying all right, the opposition is still short of the required numbers. They need at least another 30 MPs to be on the safe side of the House.

AID: Why do you think Jayalalitha came to Delhi with so many suitcases?

ABCD: I heard it was 48.

AID: Well, she does need some for her personal use. In any case, it suits her to ditch the BJP and align with like-minded parties.

ABCD: That's what I want to know. Which are the like-minded parties and which are unlikely?

AID: Parties which are used to having a woman as boss and have a culture of sycophancy.

ABCD: So, it's the Congress running a minority government with Jayalalitha's support.

AID: With so many suitcases, it could also be the other way around. She could decide to cut out the middle man. Or woman. After all, she can always claim that her cut-outs are bigger than Sonia's.

ABCD: But there are so many other factors and factotums involved. What about them?

AID: It's a question of arithmetic, chemistry and economics. Chautala has refused support to the BJP, but he is also opposed to the Congress. The NC is sitting on the fence but it is also opposed to the Congress. The Left is willing but not if Manmohan Singh is involved in economics. The DMK will not back any front with Jayalalitha in it. Similarly, the chemistry between the BSP and the SP is non-existent. Then, you have to analyse the compulsions of the TDP and the TC. Or the PMK, the TRC, the MDMK, the sad. Finally, there are other minor alphabets in the soup which could spell trouble.

ABCD: I'm still confused. Is the government going to fall or not?

AID: Right now, the President has other weightier demands on his mind.

ABCD: What demands?

AID: The demands by Doordarshan and All India Radio workers. No news means no noose.

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