Cover Story: National Politics: Beginning of a Nightmare

Managing power will not be a bed of roses for a Congress unaccustomed to the compromises of coalition politics. Sonia's dream could turn sour.

Pieces that may not Fit
The President demands Sonia provides written support of of at least 270 MPs before being allowed to form the government.
The TMC says it will not support a government that includes the AIADMK.
Janata Dal says that it won't support a government that includes Laloo.
Mulayam says that it won't support a government that includes the BSP.
RSP and Forward Bloc say they won't support a Congress-led government.
Coalition strained by Congress-left rivalries in West Bengal and Kerala.
Politically inexperienced, Sonia may find veteran Congress ministers difficult to control.

There are two attributes that have marked Sonia Gandhi's 15-month career in politics -- aloofness and a remarkable economy with words. The president of the Congress and prime minister-in-waiting (she may be the fourth member of the Nehru-Gandhi family to hold that office) is in many ways an unnatural politician. Socially ill at ease with the average kurta-pyjama Congressman, she compounds her detachment with a natural reticence. It wasn't any different during the 13-day crisis that led to the toppling of the 13-month-old Atal Bihari Vajpayee government by a solitary vote on April 17. "We are watching the situation", was her routine offering to an inquisitive media and "Don't be hyper, play it cool," was her inevitable refrain to excitable party functionaries in the thick of an unfolding see-saw drama.

The placidity and relative unconcern was only a facade. Behind the well-guarded walls of 10 Janpath, Sonia was in the driver's seat of a determined offensive to bring down Vajpayee. That she succeeded at all -- albeit by a whisker -- owed as much to good fortune as to meticulous planning. The operational details were left to the trio of Congress Working Committee (CWC) member Arjun Singh, CPI(M) General Secretary Harkishan Singh Surjeet and Janata Party President Subramanian Swamy. But Sonia was always in the know and always ready to play her role when the occasion demanded. Her presence at Swamy's tea party for AIADMK chief J. Jayalalitha was a calculated gesture. She maintained independent lines of communication with politicians, even using non-political intermediaries like former Hindustan Lever chairman Ashok Ganguly, who was the conduit to West Bengal Chief Minister Jyoti Basu.

POSSIBLE SCENARIOS

ť Congress alone forms government with outside support of 26 parties.
ťCongress plus Jaya plus Swamy form ministry. Others stay out.
ťCongress and almost all partners (minus CPI-M) find place in ministry.
ťAIADMK stays out of Congress-led coalition. Swamy represents Jaya.
ťThird Front provides PM. Congress participates, Sonia stays out.
ťVajpayee reclaims majority.
ťSonia is caretaker PM; fresh polls.

When, on April 16 afternoon, Om Prakash Chautala announced his re-defection to the BJP side, it seemed the game was up. But Sonia refused to yield. Early evening, she met the equally taciturn Tamil Maanila Congress (TMC) leader G.K. Moopanar and worked out a deal which harped more on the past and future than the present. Then, in an undercover early-morning exercise on Saturday, she persuaded the mercurial Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) leader Mayawati to convert her party's abstention policy into a vote against the government. At the eleventh hour she even met Jammu and Kashmir Chief Minister Farooq Abdullah to persuade him to switch sides. It wasn't for any lack of effort on her part that Farooq didn't oblige.

If the success of Operation Topple Vajpayee is any indication, Sonia has learnt her lessons well. But this is only the beginning. Despite being the Congress' leading public campaigner, Sonia has hitherto been a mere symbol for the party. She is the chairperson of the Congress Parliamentary Party but not an MP. This means she has never been truly exposed to the vicious cut and thrust of competitive politics. In fact, she has been so wonderfully insulated from the combative aspects of public life that she has not agreed to a single media interview since entering politics. For the public as well as the party, Sonia is more a concept than a three-dimensional politician.

DOUBLESPEAK

SUBRAMANIAN SWAMY
on Jayalalitha

1995: "Tamil Nadu does not deserve such a corrupt and dictatorial chief minister. It is high time somebody prosecuted her."
1999: "On the Bhagwat issue vital national interests are involved. And her patriotic sense will not allow her to compromise."

JYOTI BASU
on Sonia Gandhi

1998: "She is a housewife. She was never in politics. What qualification does she have?"
1999: "The decision on a new government is not mine. Ask Mrs Gandhi. My party will only offer support from outside."

MAYAWATI
on the BJP

1997: "I have made a thorough inquiry and found there are no criminals in the party."
1999: "For us both the BJP and the Congress are snakes."

JAYALALITHA
on Sonia Gandhi

1998: "The greatest tragedy would befall India if Sonia became the prime minister. I don't consider her a politician?"
1999: "Our meeting is a political earthquake ... The AIADMK will fully support her in forming and running the new government."

MULAYAM SINGH YADAV
on the Congress

1998: "Anti-Congressism is dead. The only issue is to defeat the BJP. Congress must lead."
1999: "The Congress is trying to finish us. It has a hidden agenda."

Yet this is precisely what she has to be if the Congress is to move to the next stage of its operation -- forming an alternative government. "Leadership is not the issue," says Congress leader Sharad Pawar, "Soniaji will head the Government." "It's obvious. Do we have to give an affidavit?" asks Arjun. They are both right. As a party wedded to dynastic democracy, the Congress won't countenance another claimant for the top post as long as a member of the "family" is available. Any other candidate, whether Pawar or Arjun or even Manmohan Singh will be mired in factional controversy. If Sonia decides she is unwilling to be prime minister at this stage, she is likely to offer the baton to a H.D. Deve Gowda, in the full knowledge this is a purely interim arrangement.

Of course, the fall of Vajpayee doesn't automatically pass on the occupancy of Race Course Road to the leader of the next largest party. The Vajpayee government was defeated in very unusual circumstances. The initiative for the confidence vote didn't come from Parliament, which was in session, but on the instruction of President K.R. Narayanan. Vajpayee was defeated by a vote but showed that he enjoys the confidence of 269 MPs. Given the situation, the BJP-led coalition is insisting that any alternative formation must first demonstrate in writing that it has the support of at least 270 MPs. "The President must be satisfied that the alternative government is stable and viable and not a mere ploy for a caretaker regime," said home minister L.K. Advani. At present, Sonia can definitely count on the support of 263 MPs. The rest have their conditions.

Technically speaking, Advani is right although the BJP too must ensure its allies remain loyal to Vajpayee in the coming week. In case the BJP succeeds, the chances of the Congress having a credible claim to forming a new government appear slim. It is one thing to capitalise on residual anti-BJPism and vote out Vajpayee. Forming an alternative is a different ball game altogether. Within hours of Saturday's Lok Sabha vote, Sonia discovered the minefields on the Congress' road to power.

The first discovery was a blow to her imperiousness. Accustomed to receiving dignitaries from far and wide and holding court, Sonia was puzzled that the defeat of the Vajpayee government didn't lead to her alliance partners queuing up before 10 Janpath. Like the lady of Chennai's Poes Garden who came to Delhi and had to go calling on others, rather than the other way round, Sonia may find that the CWC resolution authorising her to hold negotiations is a crown of thorns. She will find negotiating with Mulayam Singh Yadav, Laloo Prasad Yadav and other "social justice" forces a far cry from talking down to her Congress courtiers. Accustomed to key portfolios in any coalition, the 26 parties that could constitute a coalition will demand at least half the ministerships. This will make life unbearable for those Congress veterans who occupied important posts under Rajiv Gandhi and P.V. Narasimha Rao. The important question for Sonia will not be who to include but which stalwart to displease.

The troubles could begin with the indefatigable Jayalalitha. With 18 MPs at her command, Jayalalitha just cannot be ignored. "She is the one responsible for the fall of the government. The aiadmk should be in the new government," says Swamy. That's logically true but Jayalalitha isn't a matter of logic. Given her track record and her involvement in numerous corruption cases, the AIADMK's participation is a subject of passion. The three-member TMC has already given a warning to the Congress against allowing "corruption to re-enter the government through the backdoor". Said former finance minister P. Chidambaram: "We hope that the Congress will form the government adhering to its Pachmarhi declaration. If the AIADMK is part of the government, we will oppose it on the floor of the House." A way out is for the AIADMK to not press for participation. "Jayalalitha has said she is willing to support a Congress government from the outside," says CWC member Rajesh Pilot. The Jayalalitha camp disagrees. "There is no question of a Congress government. There will be either a coalition or no government at all," said a Jayalalitha confidant.

A possible route is to undermine AIADMK's strategic clout by weaning away 15 to 20 MPs from the BJP's coalition partners like the Samata Party, Trinamool Congress and the Biju Janata Dal and using them as a foil to Jayalalitha. "Our numbers will swell dramatically soon," claims Pawar. The problem would be that Jayalalitha would then turn her ire on the Congress. As things stand, the Congress senses an electoral future in Tamil Nadu in alliance with the AIADMK. Sonia must indulge her.

For Surjeet, who played a key role in securing the BJP's defeat, the way to prevent regional rivalries from jeopardising the formation of an alternative "secular" government is to have a Sonia-led, Congress-only regime whose ambit can be enlarged in stages. "We cannot support any government which includes Laloo Yadav's Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD)," says the Janata Dal (JD)'s Ram Vilas Paswan. JD President Sharad Yadav has written to the President that the party's vote against Vajpayee is not tantamount to supporting another government.

For Sonia, the Surjeet formula is very appealing. The only problem is that Mulayam's Samajwadi Party (SP) is loath to accept it. Mulayam's main concern is his Muslim vote in Uttar Pradesh, for which the Congress is making a pitch. If the Congress is seen to emerge as the main anti-BJP force, it would lead to Muslim desertion from the sp. For Mulayam, already upset by the publicity showered on Mayawati and the BSP, a rejuvenated Congress is a byword for personal disaster. He just cannot allow the Congress a free hand without first settling the terms of relationship in Uttar Pradesh. "We are not going to sit outside and sing bhajans," said an SP leader. Pressured by Laloo, the Rashtriya Loktantrik Morcha (RLM) comprising the RJD and SP, has come out in favour of a coalition government with the Congress. But, said SP General Secretary Amar Singh: "Given the ground realities in Uttar Pradesh, it would be difficult for us to participate in the government until there is agreement on issues like the Patents Bill, Insurance Bill, women's reservation and reconstruction of the Babri Masjid."

Frankly, after its last-minute friendship with the BSP, the Congress has little use for the SP in Uttar Pradesh. A tie-up with Laloo's RJD in Bihar and with the BSP in Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh would serve the Congress more than pandering to Mulayam. "If we align with Mulayam, it will set back the process of Congress revival in Uttar Pradesh by years," said a CWC member. Yet, for the moment, Mulayam's 20 MPs are critical for Sonia if she wants to form the government. Moreover, given Mulayam's alliance with Laloo and his close links with the CPI(M), it is not possible to be unmindful of the SP altogether. "The clash between the Congress and the Third Front is but natural," said former prime minister V.P. Singh in a TV interview to Aaj Tak.

Finally, for Sonia, there is the problem of the Left. In bringing down the BJP, Surjeet was very supportive. The same understanding is unlikely to be in evidence when it comes to the economic agenda. The first hurdle is certain to be the budget which becomes infructuous if not approved by May 15. "The Congress does not want to create a financial stalemate," says Arjun, indicating his party's broad preference for accepting Yashwant Sinha's Finance Bill. The Left, however, is unwilling to oblige. "The change in the government must be reflected in the budget," says CPI Rajya Sabha member Gurudas Das Gupta. Both the CPI and CPI(M) want a vote on account and a new budget subsequently.

This doesn't suit the Congress which is aware of the enormous problems created by the Left for Chidambaram during the two United Front governments. This is where Rashtrapati Bhavan seems anxious to come to the rescue. When Vajpayee and Advani went to submit the government's resignation last Saturday, the President advised them to get the budget passed when Parliament reconvenes on April 19. The BJP leaders expressed their inability to do so since they had lost the confidence of the Lok Sabha. Following a meeting with Lok Sabha Speaker G.M.C. Balayogi, it is likely that the President will direct Parliament to transact all financial business pending the formation of a new government. If the Congress and the BJP cooperate, this will not be difficult, although the Left will be displeased.

However, for Sonia, the passage of the budget will offer greater room for political manoeuvre. For a start, a new government will just have to go through a rapid-fire confidence vote and then adjourn Parliament till the monsoon session in July. Second, with no constitutional stalemate in the offing, Sonia can afford to tell her non-Congress allies to support the government with the minimum of conditions or face another mid-term election. If the allies fall in line, the situation is ideal. If not it will allow Sonia to be caretaker prime minister for the next election.

In an emerging nightmare situation after the fall of the Vajpayee government, this is Sonia's ray of hope for the future. Unless, of course, yesterday's friends become instant spoilsports.