States: Bihar; Desperate Gambit

India Today
Sep 28,1998

BIHAR
Desperate Gambit

Vananchal ceases to enthuse Laloo. But with the dismissal of the RJD government looming large, this is more a survival ploy than his commitment to united Bihar.

By Sanjay Kumar Jha

Yashwant Sinha with RSS leader Sudarshan It was the kind of somersault only Laloo Prasad Yadav could execute with perfection. Barely four days before the special Bihar Assembly session called to debate and pass a bill to create the Vananchal state in the south Bihar plateau region, the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) chief thundered: "Bihar ka vibhajan meri lash par hoga (Bihar will be divided only over my dead body)."

The emotional outburst was vintage Laloo. The underlying game plan for political survival, however, was much more predictable. Laloo is desperate; BJP leaders both at the centre and in Patna have been hinting at the dismissal of the government led by his wife Rabri Devi. And should the Centre invoke Article 356 to sack the RJD Government Laloo has little going for him to make a comeback, given the plethora of charges relating to the fodder scam that he still faces.

The sudden opposition to Vananchal -- after having supported its cause for several years -- was a reckless attempt by the Bihar maverick to seize the initiative and engineer a mid-term poll on his own terms. The objective is clear: if polls are inevitable, approach the people as a "martyr and a hero".

Though Laloo's volte face caught the political parties unaware, he has a ready explanation. The initial resolution on the creation of a Vananchal state passed by the Rabri Devi Government in August last year, he maintains, envisioned the formation of a "Greater Jharkhand" state comprising 26 districts of Bihar, Orissa, West Bengal and Madhya Pradesh, not a truncated Vananchal. But opposition leaders in the state, including the Janata Dal General Secretary Laxmi Sahu and the leader of the Opposition Sushil Kumar Modi (BJP), are not convinced. Modi calls Laloo's about-turn a "political fraud" and "a desperate attempt to divert public attention from the demand for dismissal of the Government".

"Laloo's move will not save the Rabri government because there is no change in the situation that led to the possibility of President's rule," says BJP National General Secretary K.N. Govindacharya. He could be right because Laloo has already alienated some of his allies. Leaders of the Jharkhand parties withdrew support to the Rabri Government the very next day. However, RJD chief whip Mohammad Nematullah is confident the government will still retain its majority in the assembly even if the Congress bowed to the pro-Vananchal lobby and withdrew its support.

The confidence, as political developments on September 16 showed, was not misplaced. Some 13 anti-Vananchal JD MLAs who had recently broken away from the parent party merged with the ruling RJD. Nine of them were sworn in as ministers the same evening in a surprise cabinet expansion of the 14-month-old Government.

With this the RJD strength in the 321-member House has swelled to 146 (four seats are vacant). The party can also count on the support of six members of the Loktantrik Communist Party, two of the BSP and 10 of the 13 independents. But there are rumblings within the RJD rank and file. Though Laloo secured the approval of the RJD Legislature Party for his stand, several MLAs from south Bihar, including three ministers -- Aklu Ram Mahato, Govardhan Nayak and Saba Ahmed -- are considering resigning over the issue. Laloo, however, is unmoved by such threats. "I do not want to quarrel with friends, but in the interest of people of Bihar, I do not mind even sacrificing the RJD Government."

In fact, Laloo is already looking ahead. The reversal of the resolution on the separate state by the state Cabinet on September 15 was the first step in a concrete plan. As a second step, Rashtriya Lok Tantrik Morcha National Convener Rajan Prasad Yadav set up the "Bihar Bachao Sangharsh Samiti" and hit the roads with dharnas and rallies to mobilise public opinion against the division. The RJD too has announced a massive agitation programme in October. In response, the BJP has decided to launch its own campaign to drum up support for a separate state. The BJP has a larger stake in south Bihar than any other party. In the last general election it won 12 out of 14 Lok Sabha seats and in the Assembly it bagged 21 of the 81 seats. The issue has also caused a chasm in political parties. MLAs from the BJP, Samata Party, JD and the Congress are all speaking a pro- or anti-Vananchal language according to the region they belong to.

Whatever the fallout of Laloo's dubious decision, the Bihar maverick has succeeded in deflecting attention from the main issue in the state -- the dismissal of the Government -- while creating a new subject to exercise the minds of the state's politicians and people.

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