States: Gujarat; September Blues

In recent years, BJP leaders in Gujarat have come to dread the month of September. Three years ago this month, Shankersinh Vaghela authored the rebellion that resulted in a change of leadership with Suresh Mehta replacing Keshubhai Patel as the state's chief minister. Exactly a year later, following his expulsion from the BJP Vaghela joined hands with the Congress to topple the Mehta government. Last September, BJP leaders had reason to be happy since the month passed by without any major convulsions. But last week, the BJP was firmly reminded that bad Septembers are not a thing of the past.

The palpitations in the party this time lasted no more than a day when Industry Minister Suresh Mehta resigned on September 14 only to return to the Keshubhai Patel Cabinet within three days after being mollified by the party high command. But the implications of the event for the state BJP, which overcame two years of internal turmoil to emerge victorious in the assembly elections in March, are worrying. As state party chief Rajendrasinh Rana admits, "The episode has tarnished the party's image."

MINISTER'S GROUSE

Though the industry minister, Mehta was not given charge of industrial policy.

His close associates were kept out of the ministry or given insignificant portfolios.

Mehta's rival in home district Kutch and first-time MLA made Speaker of the state Assembly.

Mehta's associates ignored during appointment of chiefs of public-sector corporations.

The near revolt was not entirely unexpected. Mehta had been sidelined ever since Patel became chief minister on March 4. The subsequent actions of the chief minister only enraged Mehta further. Though given the industry portfolio, he was denied the crucial Industrial Policy department. His close associates too got minor portfolios in the ministry and were ignored during appointments of heads of public sector boards and corporations.

Mehta finally got the opportunity to strike back last week when one of his supporters in Kutch, Bavji Jadeja, was killed. Though the police took swift action and arrested the killers, Mehta wasn't convinced and shot off his resignation to Patel, citing police inaction in the case as the reason. Then started the familiar drama: BJP vice-president K.L. Sharma and Union Textiles Minister Kashiram Rana flew down from Delhi to effect a patch-up. Surprisingly, it didn't take much to pacify Mehta who said, "As a loyal soldier, I shall abide by the party high command's decision." Patel, no doubt relieved, said, "It was a minor misunderstanding. The issue is resolved for good."

That may not be the case. More likely, it is a temporary truce, though given Mehta's following in the party, it is improbable he will organise a coup. Yet the party can ill afford to ignore him as Vaghela is forever willing to help anyone creating trouble in the BJP. Typically, Vaghela's response to this crisis was, "The truce won't last long. I expect a change in the BJP leadership after the assembly polls in November."

Though that is still two months away, the crisis has once again raised doubts about Patel's ability to provide effective leadership to the party -- after all, he was at the helm each time a revolt took place. Caught between excessive demands of impatient party MLAs and his own promise of a clean administration, Patel has shown a marked tendency to wilt under pressure. As time passes, the pressure will only mount.