Cover Story: Mood of the Nation; Making of a Wave

If the results of the recent assembly elections are any indication, the electorate desires change. This mood was reiterated in a nationwide opinion poll conducted for INDIA TODAY by ORG-MARG under the supervision of ORG-MARG's Associate Research Director Perry C. Goes. The poll shows the Congress under Sonia Gandhi has gained from the rising tide of dissatisfaction with the BJP-led coalition at the Centre. It will gain both at the cost of the BJP and the United Front. The personal popularity of Atal Bihari Vajpayee is high but he has been overtaken by Sonia as the preferred choice for prime minister. The Mood of the Nation survey sampled 18,960 eligible voters in 16 states and 79 Lok Sabha constituencies between December 5 and 12, 1998. Adequate weightage was accorded to all socio-cultural regions, gender and place of residence.

In the traditional Hindu scheme of things, the future holds few uncertainties. It's literally a way of revisiting the past. So it is with an India entering the final year of the millennium. Having repeatedly experimented with political change since 1977, the country has also developed an uncanny knack of reverting to past certitudes. Nine months ago, Atal Bihari Vajpayee was the beneficiary of this cyclical process. Now the ball is in the court of the fourth member of the "dynasty" -- Sonia Gandhi. Barely a year in active politics, she stands to gain the most from the rising tide of dissatisfaction against a fractious coalition government and a desire for stability. So profound is the antipathy that a snap poll could witness another Gandhi wave, with the Congress tally touching the 300 mark. The gains of the Congress are likely to be at the cost of both the BJP and the United Front (UF), particularly the CPI(M).

The INDIA TODAY-ORG-MARG Mood of the Nation poll has one powerful message: the people have been bitten by the change bug yet again. True, the prime minister's personal popularity has remained unaffected compared to a year ago (India Today, January 5, 1998). But in a spectacular turn of events, 31 per cent of voters now feel that Sonia will make the best prime minister. A year ago, she was favoured by 17 per cent. Incumbency, a factor that adds to a sitting prime minister's appeal, has not come to Vajpayee's rescue vis-a-vis his prime opponent.

The Congress is riding the crest of mounting dissatisfaction with the BJP
SEATS			% VOTES
	Feb 98	Now		Feb 98	Now
BJP+Allies	252	135	BJP+Allies	36%	26%
INC+Allies	142	305	INC+Allies	26%	45%
UF	112	57	UF	25%	9%
Others	41	60	Others	13%	20%

For the dejected band of Congressmen who saw in the Nehru-Gandhi name the only hope of restoring its status as an umbrella national party, the installation of Rajiv Gandhi's widow as the undisputed leader is a gamble that seems to have paid off. The opinion poll indicates there could be a staggering 15 per cent national swing to the Congress and against the BJP-led coalition in the event of a snap poll. However, this does not seem to be on account of the dynastic factor. Despite her rising popularity, there remains a nagging doubt about Sonia's leadership qualities. In previous mid-term opinion polls, the popularity ratings of Indira and Rajiv far exceeded the Congress votes. With Sonia at the helm, the party enjoys a popularity higher than its leader and only 55 per cent of those who voted for the Congress in 1998 believes she is the best choice for prime minister.

Who will make the best Prime Minister?
		Dec 97
Sonia	31	7
Vajpayee	27	27
Mulayam	2
Don't know	23

This is a very significant mismatch and suggests that the Congress surge is in many ways a knee-jerk protest against the BJP's non-performance. It is significant that the ruling coalition's loss in popularity is most marked in Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Punjab, Haryana and Gujarat where the state governments are also controlled by members of the ruling coalition. In Tamil Nadu, Bihar and to a lesser extent Karnataka, the BJP-led alliance is holding on and in West Bengal is gaining support. For the Congress, therefore, not being in power for a prolonged spell (except in Orissa and Madhya Pradesh) has proved unwittingly beneficial. There is no anti-incumbency factor to drag it down.

In a sense, it is facile to attribute the BJP's downturn entirely to the sharply negative ratings of the Vajpayee Government at the Centre. It would seem that the perception of non-performance at the Centre has been aggravated by mismanagement at the local level. This seems to be a problem largely confined to the BJP and its allies. The Congress in Madhya Pradesh and Orissa and the RJD in Bihar are unscathed by local anti-incumbency problems. However, the poll indicates problems for the Telugu Desam in Andhra Pradesh, DMK in Tamil Nadu, Asom Gana Parishad in Assam, Janata Dal in Karnataka and the CPI(M) in both Kerala and West Bengal. Overall, the United Front (UF) looks set to shrink further.

Uttar Pradesh, the state that sends 85 MPs to the Lok Sabha, is the most revealing example of the BJP's dual ineptitude. In the 1998 election, the BJP and its allies won 59 seats whereas the Congress was reduced to zero seats -- losing even Amethi -- and secured merely 6 per cent of the votes. Now, the opinion poll predicts that the Congress could end up snatching a large number of seats from the BJP. Contrary to speculation in political circles, the Congress gains look like being at the cost of the BJP and the Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP). With the Samajwadi Party holding on to its Yadav and Muslim support base, there is a direct correlation between Congress gain and BJP loss. Those who drifted to the saffron banner after 1989 and supported it enthusiastically in 1998 -- the urban voter, the middle classes and the youth -- are now looking to the Congress. The BJP hasn't alienated them entirely but its support is slipping fast. Sonia's Congress isn't yet becoming the party Sitaram Kesri dreamt of reinventing -- a Janata Dal with the tricolour. It is merely eating into the BJP's traditional constituency and regaining the confidence of many Dalits who had gone over to the BSP. In a triangular polity, these accretions are giving it a cutting edge.

How do you rate Vajpayee's performance as the PM?
GOOD	AVERAGE	BAD
34	28	27

How do you rate the OVERALL PERFORMANCE of the government?	GOOD	20
	AVERAGE	35
	BAD	38
How do you rate the BJP's handling of the ECONOMY?	GOOD	16
	AVERAGE	28
	BAD	38
Has the BJP-led government been able to suitably CONTROL PRICES?	YES	14
	NO	72

The BJP's slippage cannot be explained by ideology. There is no widespread apprehension of deteriorating communal relations that make voters opt for a party more committed to social cohesion. When questioned on subjects intimately linked with the saffron ideology -- swadeshi, Vande Mataram and a uniform civil code -- the respondents actually sided with the hardliners of the Sangh Parivar. Even 48 per cent Muslims favoured making the singing of Vande Mataram compulsory in schools.

Interestingly, the preference for a swadeshi orientation was particularly strong among 18-to-24 year-olds. That this has not automatically translated into voting preference is significant. It suggests that the BJP is being assessed negatively for its record in government, particularly its failure to keep prices in check. Most important is the feeling of 48 per cent that only the Congress can provide a stable government. This perception that the Congress is better at managing power is even shared by a large percentage of BJP voters. Having tasted the bitter fruits of another coalition, the voters now seem inclined to revert to one-party rule.

For Vajpayee, these are disturbing messages. He is literally in a double bind. The poll suggests that only 36 per cent of those who voted for the BJP-led alliance in the general election are satisfied with his Government's performance. The only area of relatively higher satisfaction is with the Government's handling of security concerns although the staggeringly high approval ratings of the Pokhran blasts seems to have diminished sharply. In what should be an indictment of the Government and party's propaganda machinery, some 47 per cent claim to be unaware of the Pokhran tests. Yet, and perhaps to the satisfaction of his RSS critics, the poll simultaneously indicates the voters are not too enamoured of the prime minister's attempt to break out of the party's ideological straitjacket and embrace the path of rapid globalisation. They have no major problems with the BJP agenda, only with its managerial ineptitude. In short, if the poll has any policy guidelines to the prime minister, it is this: concentrate on prices and other day-to-day problems but without breaking the mould. The expectation from Vajpayee is to be an efficient saffron performer, not a Manmohan Singh-style reformer.

But to even change tack, restore his Government's credibility and woo voters away from the Congress, Vajpayee needs a measure of stability. With the polls indicating that J. Jayalalitha's popularity in Tamil Nadu has not been affected by her shenanigans, the prime minister should expect no respite from his most difficult coalition partner. For Vajpayee, the gloomy opinion poll has only three points of reassurance. First, despite a low 20 per cent positive rating of his Government, 34 per cent rated the prime minister's own performance as good. This implies that Vajpayee has popular sanction to lead from the front. Secondly, the yearning for change is coupled with grudging acceptance of the present dispensation. Only 27 per cent want the BJP-led coalition to be instantly replaced with a Congress-led one and only 18 per cent favour a snap poll. With 37 per cent in favour of the present Government continuing, there seems a willingness to give Vajpayee a chance to redeem himself. Even the so-called Third Front may oblige because its poll prospects look as dismal as the BJP's. This unlikely convergence of interests could put a premature general election on hold. Finally, past experience of opinion polls suggests public opinion is volatile and prone to radical shifts. The present opinion poll was conducted after the Congress victories in Delhi, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh and reflected the political buzz of the moment.

If prices are managed in the next few weeks, if the prime minister begins sending signals that he is decisively in command and if the ruling coalition stops pulling in separate ways, that buzz could well change. Equally, it will take only minor misdemeanours for the slide to turn into total collapse.