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India Today, March 29, 1999
March 29, 1999


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The Y2K Panic

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THE BUG: WHO SHOULD WORRY

PowerPOWER
Worst case
Power failures across entire grids from snags in control and distribution systems. You could also get a bill for 100 years instead of one month.

REPAIR COST
Anywhere from Rs 200 crore to Rs 600 crore.

Status
Way behind schedule. Unlikely to have all problems fixed in time.

BankingBANKING
Worst case

Disruptions in interbank transactions, interest payments and cheque clearing. Computers might not recognise accounts based on birth dates.

REPAIR COST
More than Rs 50 crore spent. Perhaps Rs 50 crore more needed.

Status
Foreign banks ready. Other repairs on. But 20 per cent won't be ready.

FinanceFINANCE
Worst case

Trading will either be severely affected or stop in computerised stock exchanges. Interest and insurance payments due in 2000 might not be made in time.

REPAIR COST
Rs 10 crore.

Status
NSE and BSE behind schedule. Insurance companies are refusing to cover losses arising from Y2K.

DefenceDEFENCE
Worst case
Glitches in communications and surveillance equipment. Weapons systems in all three services could malfunction, especially Russian equipment.

REPAIR COST
Rs 100 crore at least

Status
September deadline for fixing and testing systems, but many defence users are not aware of a problem.

HealthHEALTH
Worse case

Intensive-care monitoring systems will malfunction. Defibrillators and ventilators could break down. Computerised dosages and billings will go awry.

REPAIR COST
No reliable estimates

Status
Most large hospitals are ready or will be ready. But thousands of clinics don't even know of Y2K.

TelecomTELECOM
Worst case

Wrong billing, missed calls, snags in customer services and satellite services in the world's tenth largest telecom network with 24 million phone lines.

REPAIR COST
Less than Rs 1 crore (dot figures)

Status
Nine teams at work. Deadline: June. Work began well in time during 1997. Few glitches expected.

RailwaysRAILWAYS
Worst case

Chaos in 3.5 lakh daily passenger bookings.Train scheduling and railway communication could be disrupted. Widespread delays and cancellations.

REPAIR COST
Not more than Rs 10 crore

Status
On course to meet September deadline. Reservation systems. must be ready by November 1.

AviationAVIATION
Worst case

Airline reservations for 2000 will no longer be valid. Air traffic control systems in Mumbai and Delhi could fail to recognise aircraft.

REPAIR COST
About Rs 45 crore.

Status
Airline systems are being fixed.No problem likely. Most ATCs are not automated, won't have a problem.

Home ComputersHOME COMPUTERS
Worst case

Date functions in most of the 2.5 million PCs (made in 1996 or earlier) will fail. Accounts could go askew, files could be juggled, but Windows 95 won't crash.

REPAIR COST
Unknown. Depends on users.

Status
Changing the date function in PCs is not very difficult. Not too many have done this though.

 

AND OTHER BUGS

The September bug
Eight months to go. Not for the 1999 problem. The what? "The problem could start in September," says Shekhar Dasgupta, country manager, Oracle Software India Ltd. An older, popular software called COBOL (common business-oriented language), used by many large-scale computer users (not in PCs), works with "999" as code for an "end of file" command. September 9 could thus be a problem date. What could happen? Nothing at all, many insist, pointing out that September 9 would read 09/09/99. But even if the sceptics are wrong, there may not be the dire consequences that Y2K doomsayers often warn about. Some database programmes might be unable to read any data after an "end of file" date.

Irritating? Maybe.

Widespread? No.

The leap day bug
Children born on February 30, 2000 will never celebrate a birthday -- unless they live 400 years. A year to us is 365 days, but the earth really takes just under 365.25 days to whirl around the sun. The extra minutes give us a leap year with an extra day, February 29, every four years. But there are still enough seconds left over to put together another day for February every 400 years.

The last time there was a February 30, was in 1600 when Shakespeare was 46 years old. But that was a world with no computers. Through the computer age, programmers simply forgot about the February 30 phenomenon.

So some computers will simply skip the day, fouling up records, operations and calculations. More of a worry in India because the financial year ends on March 31, which will be just a month away when the bug hits.

Annoying? Sure.

Catastrophic? Unlikely.

 

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