June 29, 1998

Proactive 'Indian Confidence Building Measures ' can revolutionise south Asia

Jairam Ramesh

Inter-Continental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) are an integral part of a nuclear superpower's arsenal. But what the country needs is an entirely different class of ICBMs -- Indian Confidence Building Measures, to bring enduring peace and trigger tangible development in south Asia. These ICBMs must be offered in a comprehensive and authoritative manner and not in a piecemeal fashion in press interviews by the prime minister and his peripatetic aides. ICBMs must be offered proactively since the worldwide perception is that we are intransigent in bilateral and regional matters.

ICBMs will not be a panacea for peace. If two sides are determined to destroy each other, there is nothing that confidence-building measures can do. But by improving the atmospherics, by providing transparency in military activities and by serving as a channel for mutual consultations, confidence-building measures lessen tensions.

Both Rajiv Gandhi and P.V. Narasimha Rao understood this. In December 1988, Rajiv and Benazir Bhutto signed a historic agreement that pledged the two countries not to attack each other's nuclear installations. Later, in August 1992, India and Pakistan agreed to ban the use of chemical weapons. In September 1993, India and China entered into a whole range of confidence-building agreements. Atal Bihari Vajpayee must consolidate on all these. The existing Sino-Indian agreements must go full speed ahead in spite of the current chill.

The first new ICBM in relation to Pakistan could well be the extension of the Rajiv-Benazir nuclear accord to cover no attack on irrigation dams, oil and gas fields, chemical factories and population centres as well. Strategic gurus have also suggested India unilaterally offer a pact that pledges both countries to the "no first use" of nuclear weapons. To be really meaningful, the offer of such a pact must be accompanied by one to scale down conventional weaponry as well.

Rajiv and Benazir also came tantalisingly close to settling the dispute over the Siachen Glacier. It costs each country at least a million dollars a day in addition to the heavy human price. A second set of icbms could, therefore, aim at resuming negotiations over Siachen. Talks could also reopen on two other major outstanding issues. One, delineation of the maritime boundary and resolution of the land boundary in the Sir Creek area. Two, construction by India of the Wular Barrage on the Jhelum river.

A third set of ICBMs could revolve around proposals made by various scholars: deepening military-to-military contacts, expanding communications facilities, an agreement to curb the spread of small arms and minor weapons, and cooperation in narcotics control.

In the past, Pakistan has also proposed its version of confidence-building measures. It has, for example, suggested a nuclear weapons-free zone in south Asia, a bilateral treaty banning all nuclear tests, a regional non-proliferation conference, simultaneous accession by India and Pakistan to the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and acceptance by both countries of international safeguards on all nuclear facilities.

All along, we have rejected such proposals outright and lost considerable propaganda advantage. This attitude must change. In any case, following the nuclear tests by the two countries, the past is no longer relevant.

A fourth ICBM could be to renegotiate the timetable for the South Asian Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA) and advance its launch to January 1, 2000. That would be a good way to enter the new millennium. We have had two rounds of the South Asian Preferential Trading Arrangement (SAPTA), in which each country offered commodities that would attract lower import duties. In SAFTA, import duties will come down to zero.

The problem with SAPTA I and SAPTA II, as economists Rajesh Mehta and Swapan Bhatacharya have shown in a recent study, is that the gains to trade are minuscule and the offers themselves are meaningless. Under SAPTA II, for example, they estimate that the total imports of the 902 goods and commodities offered for preferential tariffs by India amount to just Rs 40 crore. SAFTA, on the other hand, will confer substantial benefits. Pakistan's exports to India alone will go up by 17 per cent. That will create economic vested interests in Pakistan for peace with India.

ICBMs are needed not just with Pakistan and China. For the past two decades, B.G. Verghese has been a voice in the wilderness calling for an integrated effort by India, Bangladesh and Nepal to develop the Ganga-Brahmaputra-Barak basin. The number of people mired in poverty and backwardness in this region will shortly touch a billion. The economic and social problems of states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal and the entire North-east cannot be resolved without collectively addressing basic issues of land and water management in this basin.

Thus, an important regional ICBM could be the offer to set up a Himalayan rivers commission. It could make plans for the prosperity of India's richly endowed but still backward regions -- and also confer great benefits on our indigent neighbours.

The author is secretary of the AICC's Economic Affairs Department. The views expressed here are his own.

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