March 30, 1998
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COVER STORY Perilously Yours Hamstrung by internal pressures and demands from allies, the Vajpayee Government struggles for cohesion and direction. By Swapan Dasgupta
Not that there wasn't a hint of change. The security personnel were slightly disoriented at the new faces of a new hierarchy and failed to separate the wheat from the chaff. A saffron-robed Uma Bharati was rudely instructed to take a back seat until she was rescued and led to the separate enclosure for prospective ministers. Mamata Banerjee was dragged out of unobtrusiveness by Sushma Swaraj and installed in the front rows, along with a preening J. Jayalalitha and the dapper Farooq Abdullah. Bangalore's Ananth Kumar looked a shade too young to be a Cabinet minister and Bihar's Babulal Marandi had to be constantly reminded of his newly acquired ministerial importance by mentor Sushil Modi. If Mumbai's Ram Naik was disappointed at being made a mere minister of state and Himachal Pradesh's Shanta Kumar at not being sworn in at all, they kept their misgivings to themselves. For the moment, as BJP's Gujarat strongman Narendra Modi -- who sat himself next to Bollywood star and Gurdaspur MP Vinod Khanna -- put it, "Anand hi anand hai." That may well have been true, but there was no taking away the underlying tension behind Home Minister L.K. Advani's all-too-familiar hand wringing and Prime Minister Vajpayee's equally familiar distracted geniality. Even as Vajpayee and Advani graciously accepted the interminable bouts of congratulations from friends and flatterers, their thoughts must have been on the one colleague whose absence from the Cabinet publicly exposed the fragility of the Government and the vulnerability of its top leadership. Uncivil Parivar Wars In the normal course, ethical considerations -- so important in a party that still clings to its fading "distinctiveness" -- would have prevailed. But Singh wasn't any other politician. A trusted confidant of Vajpayee, Singh's importance lay in the fact that he was the prime minister's only choice as finance minister. In the fortnight that preceded the formal assumption of responsibility, the BJP explored three other options. An attempt was made to persuade Advani to try his hand at finance. Advani firmly declined the offer. "I am not instinctively comfortable with the subject," he told colleagues. Former party president Murli Manohar Joshi wasn't similarly inhibited. With definite views on complex subjects like public debt and membership of the World Trade Organisation, Joshi would have loved an opportunity to present the next budget. The problem was his image as a swadeshi hardliner. That left Yashwant Sinha, a former finance minister in Chandra Shekhar's government. Sinha, a former IAS officer who joined the BJP as late as 1994, had an acceptable public image and was not known to be dogmatic. His only drawback was whispers in the party about his alleged closeness to a business house. For two weeks, Vajpayee and Advani were at the receiving end of spirited lobbying over the finance portfolio. Finally, after Singh's successful mission to Chennai on March 15 to persuade Jayalalitha to settle her differences with the BJP, Vajpayee made up his mind: he was going to induct Singh. Advani concurred and the three held numerous discussions on the possible direction of the ministry. But Singh's detractors weren't giving in so easily. Pressure was mounted against Singh from three quarters. First, a group of corporate lobbyists with BJP links, who enjoyed free access to the Vajpayee and Advani households, kept up the anti-Singh tirade. The opposition was masked in ideological terms: Singh was painted as anti-swadeshi with a pro-multinational tilt. Second, some BJP office-bearers with whom Singh has an uneasy relationship, were pressed into action to keep a "defeated" politician out. None of these pressures appeared to have worked and Singh's name was duly forwarded to Rashtrapati Bhavan on Wednesday evening. By 9 p.m that day, a certain peace had descended over the Vajpayee and Advani households. At Pandara Park, Advani and his trusted secretary Deepak Chopra began a round of telephone calls to all those in the BJP who were to be sworn in as ministers the next day. And Vajpayee was getting ready for his last quiet family evening before assuming charge of the top job. It was then that Vajpayee had an unexpected guest: K. Sudarshan, the unassuming organising secretary of the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS), often described as the BJP's holding company. For Vajpayee, Sudarshan's message was devastating: under no circumstances would the RSS accept a defeated politician in the Cabinet. Vajpayee contacted Advani, but even the party president was helpless. Sudarshan's message bore the authority of Sarsanghchalak Rajendra Singh (Rajju Bhaiyya), the last word in the Sangh Parivar. By early morning, Rashtrapati Bhavan was informed that Singh was not going to be included in the Cabinet. Vajpayee was understandably distraught, but there was nothing he could do. He tried to negotiate for Singh's early entry to the Rajya Sabha and a stop-gap arrangement. "I will hold charge of finance," he announced before television cameras. Within four hours, he had to eat crow. His advisers told him that the work load would be intolerable and that the financial community would interpret it as a sign of indifference. Grudgingly, Sinha was appointed finance minister. That corporate lobbying, couched in RSS sanctimoniousness, was ultimately responsible for Singh's ignominious jettisoning is revealing. Hanging on to office by a wafer-thin "working majority" that can be overturned by even a few MPs, the Vajpayee Government is most susceptible to pressure. With key ministries, particularly those connected to infrastructure, controlled by allies, some of whom have definite personal agendas, it will be extremely difficult for the Government to take bold -- sometimes unpopular -- decisions. The National Agenda for Governance, for example, is remarkable for its complete lack of audacity even on issues like controlling government spending and disinvestment. The new Government has begun by advocating a line of least resistance. The problems could assume menacing dimensions if Vajpayee fails to become his own master. Too much accommodation This inherent fragility has ensured that the allies have extracted a very handsome pound of flesh. In line with the assurances extracted from Vajpayee personally, the AIADMK and its nominees have acquired control over sensitive ministries such as law and company affairs, petroleum and surface transport, not to mention revenue and banking. The portfolios are of great consequence in view of the outstanding cases against Jayalalitha's friend Sashikala Natarajan filed by the Enforcement Directorate. The AIADMK supremo, it would seem, named her price for support to Vajpayee after meticulous calculation. Whatever her motive, the structure of the new government makes Jayalalitha the most powerful politician after the prime minister, perhaps more powerful. Nor does the political extortion end there. The Biju Janata Dal has gained control over steel, coal and mines. In short, everything that constitutes the economic lifeline of Orissa. An enviable position for a party that has only nine seats in the Lok Sabha. Likewise, Buta Singh, an Independent, has been accommodated as minister of telecommunications, a department that generated considerable notoriety under Sukh Ram (another new ally of the BJP). The underlying logic is that such strong inducements will make it virtually impossible for the allies to contemplate shifts in allegiance. When the optimum demands have been conceded, can a possible Congress-UF combination better the terms? To view the accommodation of allies as an amicable power-sharing arrangement is theoretically possible. In practical terms, it was preceded by tantrums and brinkmanship. Last Wednesday morning, for example, the Samata Party almost opted out of the Government when the BJP refused to consider its demand for either the home or finance portfolios. Subsequently, after bouts of gentle persuasion, the Samata leadership agreed to let Nitish Kumar assume charge of railways, but keep George Fernandes out of the ministry. Sensing a possible unguided missile, the BJP offered Fernandes the defence portfolio. He turned it down on the novel plea that he "would have to dress up formally too often". The ministry was then offered to the Lok Shakti's Ramakrishna Hegde, who got himself sworn-in on the assumption that he was the new defence minister. In between, Fernandes had a change of heart and following his discussions with Vajpayee and Advani, agreed to shoulder the burdens of the armed forces. It was then left to the BJP duo to inform Hegde that he had been gazumped. Consequently, the Ministry of Commerce slipped into the Lok Shakti's hands. The present bout of ministry-making is not the end of the story. There are indications that the Trinamool Congress may join the Government after the vote of confidence and the West Bengal panchayat elections in May. Mamata may feel that her style will be cramped by joining the Government, but Ajit Panja may well have to be given a Cabinet berth. As things stand at present, there is a dearth of meaningful portfolios to go round. Such difficulties aggravate alliance heartburns. Vajpayee had better manage his allies. He has no more cards up his sleeve. Nice guys end up zero Certainly, there is no question -- as the Jaswant Singh and Jayalalitha episodes revealed -- of Vajpayee being a completely free agent. There are pressures on every government and every administration has to make its own compromises. Even Rajiv Gandhi with a steam-roller, single-party majority was no different. What is relevant in a mili jhuli sarkar (coalition government), as Vajpayee likes calling his arrangement, is to achieve a degree of coherence. The functioning of departments will depend on its ministers, and Vajpayee is blessed with an uneven team. To make a mark, he will perforce have to identify a limited set of priorities, leave them in capable hands and lead from the front using his greatest attribute -- his status as a mass leader -- to full effect. When Vajpayee wants his way and chooses to be assertive -- as he did during the controversy over Subramanian Swamy -- he finds the opposition wilting. When he plays the nice guy -- as he did in the face of RSS opposition to Singh -- he finds others ever willing to walk all over him, and even embarrass him publicly. Throughout his political career, the prime minister has been a fierce individualist, a soloist who has let the team carry him on its shoulders. Such a style may now work if combined with ruthless assertion. H.D. Deve Gowda made a much more effective coalition man than I.K. Gujral because he was not afraid to thump the table and force a decision. Gujral faltered at the altar of elusive consensus. To succeed, Vajpayee has to mentally transcend his vulnerability. He must not only be the leader, but demonstrate that he is boss. He has to use his honeymoon period to establish the ground rules for the future. Otherwise, he could find himself burdened by a Government that is at odds with itself. The BJP went to the polls promising a stable government with an able leader. If it fails on either count, the electorate will not take revenge on the aiadmk or the Janata Party. It will not even remember that Vajpayee was hamstrung by a perverse mandate. Its ire will be directed at the BJP. For Vajpayee, after a distinguished career spanning four decades, the choice is unambiguous. He has "a pledge to redeem and a promise to fulfill". |
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It
won't be merely a change of government, the detractors of the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)
had screamed from the rooftops, it will be a change of regime. When the change was
ceremoniously effected under soft sunshine in the forecourt of Rashtrapati Bhavan last
Thursday morning, it seemed less a revolution than just another flicker in the history of
Indian democracy. The crackers bursting in the distance, feeble shouts of "Jai Sri
Ram" and an unconcerned cat walking lazily up the imposing red-carpeted stairs of the
erstwhile Viceregal Palace failed to convey the sense of history inherent in the second
swearing-in of India's only prime minister who reached the top without ever associating
with the Indian National Congress. Atal Bihari Vajpayee entered the history books without
disturbing history. 
