Nov 30, 1998

A BJD split will give the ruling Congress an unexpected boost.

By Ruben Banerjee

The signs had been there for long. But at sea on his home turf, Naveen Patnaik was caught totally unawares when the brewing crisis in his nascent Biju Janata Dal (BJD) blew up in his face last week. In a swift move, rebels in the party handed out a solid rebuff to the Union minister for steel and mines by replacing with their own man the person he had chosen as leader the Opposition in the Orissa Assembly.

The replacement of Ramakrushna Patnaik with Praffula Samal has wide ramifications for Naveen. For one, his authority as chief of the party named after his father, Biju Patnaik, stands eroded and the party itself is perilously close to a vertical spilt -- as many as 15 party legislators have chosen to side with Bijoy Mohapatra, the influential Political Affairs Committee chairman of the bjd.Worse, it has given the tottering Congress an opportunity to cash in on and project itself as a stabler force in the state. There is also the danger that the rift could reach Delhi and divide the nine-member BJD parliamentary party. If that happens, Naveen could cease to be the parliamentary party leader of the BJD. It would also push the BJP Government at the Centre into another round of uncertainty.

"There is no danger of a split," assures Naveen with a brave face. But having just suspended two MPs from the parliamentary party and Mohapatra, Naveen has driven the BJD that much closer to a division. The internal slugfest is also being fought on tactical lines, with the two sides trying to outwit the other to seize control. Says Mohapatra: "I am not walking out of the party. Others are free to go if they want." So while Naveen tried to expel five rebel legislators from the party in the hope that the others would quit, the rebel camp is hacking at Naveen's feet to push him into an act of desperation. Each group wants the other to break away, so it can keep the BJD and Biju's legacy for itself. "Naveen is dispensable. We can well do without him," says Prabhat Tripathy, a rebel BJD legislator.

Such statements are in themselves a sad reflection on Naveen's leadership qualities, or the lack of them. From his elevated position as the undisputed inheritor of Biju's legacy to a faction leader, his decline has been rapid. As analysts point out, he played into the hands of a coterie comprising western Orissa leaders thereby alienating those from the coastal belts. He unilaterally changed district presidents, packing the state executive of the party with his own men. The Union minister has also shown little interest in the impoverished state. Orissa witnessed one of the worst droughts this year but Naveen visited the state only after the rains came.

To make matters worse, even the BJP is keeping its options open in the event of Naveen's fall. Keen on retaining the alliance with the BJD -- both at the Centre and in the state -- irrespective of which camp finally gains control, the saffron party is playing safe. "It is our anti-Congressism, not an individual that keeps us together," explains Union minister Debendra Pradhan of the BJP.

However, it would be premature to write the political obituary of Naveen. His supporters are confident his charisma will see him through the crisis. Pointing out that the Congress would capitalise on the goings on, they say Naveen should adopt a stiffer anti-Congress stand and show determination to repair the damage done. But this time, he will have competition: Mohapatra too would raise his anti-Congress pitch. Though not a "people's man", Mohapatra has unmatched organisational ability to pit against Naveen's charisma. The real battle lies here. Ultimately, both must survive on anti-Congressism. And that is what offers consolation to the BJP at the Centre. Even if the BJD MPs split, the BJP is banking on them to stick around and support the Vajpayee Government. Talk about political opportunism.

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