August 31, 1998

With the AIADMK's allies willing to lend support to the government, Vajpayee believes it's time for liberation from Amma's tantrums.

By Swapan Dasgupta with Saba Naqvi Bhaumik, Vaasnathi, K M Thomas, Javed M Ansari

After five months as prime minister, Atal Bihari Vajpayee probably has a very simple definition of bliss: life without Amma. From the day he was pronounced the victor of the general election, the mercurial J. Jayalalitha has harassed him, tormented him and even humiliated him to such an extent that the prime minister looks tired and overwhelmed. He tried everything to pamper her, placate her and din sense into her. Yet, not a fortnight passed without the AIADMK general secretary either raising an impossible demand or throwing another of her almighty tantrums. For five months, Vajpayee has dreamt of liberation and of a time he can revert to the politics of sanity.

Now the point of no return has been reached. As the BJP leaders packed their bags for the party's National Executive meeting in Jaipur, they did so with the comforting knowledge that one turbulent chapter of their Government was over. On paper, the AIADMK was still the second largest coalition partner of the Vajpayee Government. In reality, the Vajpayee Government had withdrawn its support to Jayalalitha. The marriage was over. Only the divorce remained to be formalised.

The decision to finally part company was taken a fortnight or so ago. When Vajpayee reached an understanding with the governments of Tamil Nadu, Karnataka, Kerala and Pondicherry on August 7 over the sharing of Cauvery waters, an incensed Jayalalitha warned the Centre of "disastrous consequences" if the original tribunal award was not notified. Vajpayee ignored her. He just about had enough. If she didn't like it, she could lump it.

She almost did. Egged on by the indefatigable Janata Party President Subramanian Swamy, Jayalalitha contemplated withdrawing her ministers from the Government. For a while it even seemed that Swamy's boast that the Vajpayee Government would collapse by Independence Day would turn out to be a self-fulfilling prophecy. Unfortunately for her, the AIADMK's allies -- the PMK, MDMK and TRC who, among them, have eight Lok Sabha MPs -- were unwilling. To bolster their position, Vajpayee once again despatched Defence Minister George Fernandes -- who had replaced Planning Commission Deputy Chairman Jaswant Singh as the Centre's special envoy in the court of Jayalalitha -- to Poes Garden. This time the BJP's Pramod Mahajan joined Fernandes. That posed a small problem. Jayalalitha didn't really like Mahajan. She suspects he is a business partner of the DMK's former Union industry minister Murasoli Maran.

For three days, in person and over long-distance cellular calls, they listened and negotiated. Jayalalitha's demands were characteristically immodest. First, she demanded the removal of Enforcement Directorate (ED) chief M.K. Bezbaruah. It was instantly conceded. She also wanted her own nominee as Bezbaruah's successor, quite forgetting the Supreme Court's stipulation on the procedure of appointment. The Government pleaded helplessness. Jayalalitha sulked. Second, she demanded the replacement of Revenue Secretary N.K. Singh with Banking Secretary C.M. Vasudevan. Vajpayee met her half way. Singh was shifted to the Prime Minister's Office (PMO) and Javed Chaudhary, a former ED chief, replaced him in North Block. Who is he? asked Jayalalitha. Replace him. We will try, replied the interlocutors. "You don't have to try, you have to do it," she retorted menacingly.

There were other demands too, and Jayalalitha rightly gauged that Vajpayee was in no mood to meet them. In his own non-confrontationist way, the prime minister always defined the limits of appeasement. When she wanted Swamy made finance minister, he said no. When she demanded the bifurcation of the Finance Ministry with her nominee in independent charge, he pleaded inability. When she pressed for the Tamil Nadu Government's dismissal, Union Home Minister L.K. Advani was pressed into service to say that "the days of arbitrarily dismissing state governments are over". And when she proved obstreperous over Cauvery, Vajpayee simply looked the other way. Jayalalitha could enjoy red-carpet treatment when she flew into Delhi. She could even enjoy a special seating arrangement next to the prime minister. But she couldn't have a blank cheque.

With characteristic arrogance, Jayalalitha mistook Vajpayee's decency for weakness. With 27 MPs at her command, she believed she had the ultimate say in decision-making. Given the Government's precarious majority and the desperation of a section of the Opposition to remove the BJP Government at all costs, she convinced herself she was indispensable. She was determined to stand up and be counted, even if it meant the paralysis of the government. Although she didn't get her way, she managed to grab the headlines. She not only enjoyed being in the news, she wanted to be the news. As Buta Singh, Natwar Singh, Laloo Prasad Yadav and Mulayam Singh Yadav queued for her attention, she flattered herself into believing she was the queen, even if she wasn't ruling Tamil Nadu. In the rarefied world of Poes Garden, Jayalalitha didn't even realise that she had become India's No. 1 hate figure. She was plain self-obsessed. So much so that Law Minister M. Thambi Durai hardly bothered to attend cabinet meetings and Minister of State for Personnel and Public Grievances K.M.R. Janarthanan was a stranger in his own department.

This preoccupation with her durbar explains why she never quite realised that she was being steadily undercut. It also explains why she didn't gauge the fact that in accusing a member of the prime minister's inner circle of taking a "hefty bribe" to secure Bezbaruah's removal, she was scoring a self-goal.

Jayalalitha probably never expected Vajpayee to heed Advani's advice and come down like a ton of bricks on her. Accustomed to hurling incredible charges at political opponents, she expected the Government to be stunned by her sheer gumption and retreat into embarrassed incoherence. She wanted Bezbaruah's removal and the Government had speedily obliged her as proof of its good intentions. Now she, in turn, was accusing her facilitators of taking bribes from a media baron who is being investigated for alleged FERA violations. It was not a question of throwing mud at Mahajan and another unnamed "individual very close to the prime minister". Her target was Vajpayee who was implicitly being charged of patronising sleaze.

Why did Jayalalitha exceed all bounds? True, she was miffed that the entire responsibility for Bezbaruah and Singh's removal was being pinned on her. If she was culpable, the Vajpayee Government was equally culpable for obliging her. As for the Times of India (TOI) Group that is in the eye of the storm, Jayalalitha has enjoyed a special relationship with it based on the principle that my enemy's enemy is my friend. So much so that the plethora of details of the company's alleged proximity to the prime minister's circle is said to have been supplied by a disgruntled employee who travelled from Delhi to Chennai apparently on "her request". In trying to be too clever by half, was Jayalalitha an accessory to an internal corporate tussle? Certainly, Dileep Padgaonkar -- the corporate director referred to by AIADMK Executive Secretary P. Mahalingam in his letter to Principal Secretary Brajesh Mishra -- is quite mystified. "I have never met them to discuss any matter whatsoever," he says. "I did meet TOI Executive Director Ramesh Chandra twice in the past few months," says Mahajan, "once when he came to see me at Race Course Road and on another occasion when I called him home to protest against a piece of misreporting. That was it. No one from the TOI Group has ever requested me to interfere in this or any other case." Mahajan has challenged Jayalalitha to name him frontally so that he can slap a defamation suit.

Not that Jayalalitha was completely innocent of the implications of involving the TOI in the controversy. In 1996, former prime minister H.D. Deve Gowda and former revenue secretary N.K. Singh were involved in a controversy over allowing TOI Chairman Ashok Jain to travel abroad after an ED raid. Former Congress president Sitaram Kesri was also accused of being in the company of Jain's younger brother while opening a bank account in London in 1969. Moreover, Jain has been involved in a protracted and well-publicised battle with the ED for the past two years and there have been media allegations that he tried to secure Bezbaruah's removal. Given this background, Jayalalitha's charges were carefully calculated. Even if they didn't stick, they would be lapped up by conspiracy theorists and other detractors of the BJP. Indeed, the opposition parties are pressing for a CBI inquiry into the matter.

The BJP is understandably livid. "The AIADMK's charges are most unfortunate and unbecoming," says party General Secretary M. Venkiah Naidu. "The BJP will decide soon on whether to carry on with such an ally. An appropriate decision will be taken at an appropriate time." An angry prime minister felt the "appropriate time" was now. He wanted to drop the AIADMK ministers from his Government and even prevented Janarthanan from proceeding on a foreign visit. However, he was persuaded to hold his fire and allow Jayalalitha to walk out rather than kick her out, as demanded by Trinamool Congress' Mamata Banerjee.

Whatever the modalities of departure, the BJP is proceeding on the assumption that there is life in the Government after Jayalalitha. In Tamil Nadu, Vajpayee is optimistic of breaking the AIADMK alliance. The MDMK under "Vaiko" Gopalasamy has already taken a decision to extend unconditional support to the Vajpayee Government. Hitherto not a part of the Government, the MDMK appears to have made up its mind to actually participate in it. Tindivanam MP Chengee Ramachandran is likely to be its nominee for ministership when Vajpayee undertakes his expansion. The decision may be announced during the party's convention on September 15 where Vajpayee, Advani and Fernandes are scheduled to speak, along with Jayalalitha. Likewise, TRC leader and Petroleum Minister Vazhapadi Ramamurthy has indicated his willingness to continue in Government. "While the country is facing problems like poverty and inflation, any attempt to destabilise governments will not be tolerated by the people," he says. The PMK of S. Ramdoss has not yet formally decided, but Vellore MP N.T. Shanmugham has been told to prepare himself for a ministership. The small parties feel they will be able to do something for their constituencies by being in government.

However, Vajpayee's optimism does not merely stem from a belief that he will be able to reduce Jayalalitha's strength by eight MPs. Last week, Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M. Karunanidhi added a new dimension to the speculation over the future of the Government by stating that the six DMK MPs would support "all good schemes of the BJP". He also added that all elected governments should be allowed to govern for five years.

If Karunanidhi's six MPs tilt towards Vajpayee, in the manner of Andhra Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu, and the AIADMK alliance breaks simultaneously, it is certain to forge a major realignment in Tamil Nadu. This poses a problem for the three Tamil Maanila Congress (TMC) MPs. Initially, the TMC hoped to emerge as an alternative to the two Dravidian parties and usher in "Kamaraj rule" by 2001. That optimism is, however, fading and the party is struggling to define a role for itself. While former finance minister P. Chidambaram favours returning to a rejuvenated Congress under Sonia Gandhi, party leader G.K. Moopanar is not so sure. He doesn't expect Sonia to welcome the TMC back with open arms. This is precisely the opening that the Vajpayee Government is looking for. He has reasons to be heartened by Moopanar's statement that Jayalalitha's "blackmail politics" is the root cause of instability.

The DMK and TMC's search for a new role at the Centre stems from the collapse of the United Front (UF). First deserted by its erstwhile convenor and his Telugu Desam Party, the National Conference and the Asom Gana Parishad, the UF was reduced to a rump after Mulayam walked out to join Laloo in the Rashtriya Loktantrik Morcha (RLM).Together with the Rashtriya Janata Party it has 38 Lok Sabha MPs. Now, with the DMK likely to go its own way, the UF seems destined to become a mere letterhead. No wonder the six MPs of the once-mighty Janata Dal (JD) are pursuing their own different paths. While Deve Gowda has certainly inched closer to the Congress, former prime minister I.K. Gujral and Dalit Sena leader Ram Vilas Paswan detect opportunities in redefining their relationship with the Government. While Gujral has struck a chord with Vajpayee over foreign policy, Paswan's politics is defined by his uncompromising hostility to Laloo. Last Friday's CBI raid on the houses of Laloo and his two brothers-in-law in Patna had a political meaning as well. No wonder Swamy is not setting a new date for the fall of the Government.

Of course, much will depend on how Sonia perceives the situation. The Congress president has taken exceptional care to keep the Government on tenterhooks without actually destabilising it. Whereas all the hype over the imminent collapse of the BJP Government originate from the two Yadavs and the CPI(M), Sonia has kept everyone guessing. Aware of the pitfalls of rushing into a ramshackle coalition (including breakaway factions of the Samata Party and the Biju Janata Dal) that will divert attention from the BJP's own ineptitude in Government, the Congress seems to be playing for long-term stakes. That doesn't suit the RLM. Afraid of early elections that could see the Congress reaping the rewards of anti-incumbency, the RLM would rather force Sonia to have a shy at the top job in the immediate aftermath of Jayalalitha's withdrawal of support to the Government. Initially the RLM and the Left were pinning their hopes on Sonia opting out in favour of either Maratha strongman Sharad Pawar or former finance minister Manmohan Singh. But ever since the Congress president made it clear that she will not countenance alternative power centres, there is a grudging acceptance of her leadership. CPI(M) General Secretary Harkishen Singh Surjeet is playing a leading role in persuading the Left parties and the RLM that Sonia isn't all that bad.

The issue in the immediate future is, however, not over the competence of Sonia but of the suitability of Jayalalitha in a new dispensation. So dismal is the AIADMK leader's public image and so strong is the antipathy towards her reckless ways that Congressmen are loath to have anything to do with her. The problem can, of course, be resolved if the Congress agrees to a repetition of the "outside support" experiment by endorsing either Mulayam or former prime minister Chandra Shekhar. The chances of that happening are at present dim.

It is the difficulties of forging a credible and viable alternative that lead the BJP to believe that there is no cause to despair of life after Jayalalitha. "In this type of Lok Sabha only the Vajpayee Government can survive," says Mahajan. "Any other government will take the country to another general election." It is this fear of being confronted with yet another premature election that deters many Congress MPs from wanting to move to the treasury benches -- the most enthusiastic champions of Operation Topple Vajpayee are people like Arjun Singh who lost the election and want another chance to re-enter Parliament. And it is a similar calculation that prompts BJP strategists to look for defectors and those opposition members who will be conveniently indisposed during a vote of confidence. Laloo's 17-strong RJD is the most vulnerable to the BJP's poaching.

As things stand now, Vajpayee needs just five more MPs to survive Jayalalitha's departure and cross the magic figure of 273. With the AIADMK, the Opposition is seven short of 273, and the JD and TMC could go either way. The initial plan was to consolidate the Government through a ministerial expansion immediately after the budget session of Parliament. Jayalalitha scuttled it. Now, with Vajpayee scheduled to leave on a nine-day foreign visit from September 29 and President K.R. Narayanan following suit with a 15-day trip, the timetable has been set. Come September and India will finally know whether Vajpayee can emulate P.V. Narasimha Rao. Rao's record of converting a minority government into a majority and turning instability into stability has not been bettered. Vajpayee has to measure himself by the standards set by his professed disciple. The means are negotiable.

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