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  V Shankar Aiyar

V Shankar Aiyar
  .  

AU CONTRAIYAR

Paranoia Will Not Help

Paranoia—The central theme of a group of psychotic disorders characterised by systematic delusions. The word paranoia was used by the ancient Greeks, apparently in much the same sense as the modern popular term insanity. Since then, it has had a variety of meanings. Toward the end of the 19th century it came to mean a delusional psychosis, in which the delusions develop slowly into a complex, intricate, and logically elaborated system, without hallucination and without general personality disorganisation. In contemporary psychiatric practice, the term paranoia is generally reserved for all rare, extreme cases of chronic, fixed, and highly systematised delusions. One of the most common delusions in paranoid disorders is that of persecution. Self-reference becomes paranoid delusion when a person persists in believing that he is the target of hostile actions or insinuations, aimed at him by some enemy or band of enemies, when this is actually not the case. The identifying marks of delusional conviction are (1) readiness to accept the flimsiest evidence in support of the belief and (2) inability to entertain seriously any evidence that contradicts it.

Encyclopædia Britannica

It is rare for an entire segment of society to be afflicted by delusions. But it would appear that this has happened. Sections of industry and indeed, the government seeming to be suffering from paranoia unsurpassed in recent industry. The reason: Indian markets are buzzing with news of imported goods from pencil batteries to toys to fabrics to glassware to consumer durables and cosmetics at prices unheard of by the Indian consumer. Some members of the government’s economic management team have been quick to even blame the current slowdown on the influx of imported goods.

Perhaps they have a case. Perhaps the exporting countries — specifically China — are selling their produce at prices that even senior officials of the Chinese Consulate can’t believe. Take for instance pencil batteries, which are available in Mumbai for less than Rs 15 per dozen when the domestic Indian product’s price is Rs 7 per piece. Perhaps this is a case where unscrupulous Chinese producers are using the “marginal incremental cost” theory to capture a fair share of the Indian market. The same could be true of other products too.

Finally, It Is Happening
Someone somewhere is listening. Last month you would have read about the Post Master General’s plans to introduce emails. Last week you must have read about the tie-up between IDBI-Principal and the Postal Services for retailing savings instruments. Its something that was waiting to happen, it is something Au ContrAiyar had argued for in August.
http://www.india-today.com/webexclusive/columns/aiyar/20000829.html

But it is not enough to crib. It is a case that needs to be proved beyond doubt. It is a case where Indian industry has to focus on facts and manage perceptions. Has Indian industry done that? No. As of now, Indian industry has simply increased the decibel level of its whining. By doing so, it has only made its case weak. After all it is not just the question of the survival of Indian industry. In the modern scenario, industry also needs to contend with the aspirations of the consumer class, which obviously finds a value proposition in the imports.

If it wants to be taken seriously, Indian industry needs to first prove beyond doubt that Chinese (and others) are exporting into India at less than cost price to raise their ante in the huge potential of the Indian market. And this cannot be done just citing prices of imported goods in India. Indeed, a very simple exercise by the industry chambers would go a long way in proving the fact than all the breast-beating can achieve.

For starters, they could collate a list of products and brands that are available in India. Next, it should send a group of Indian businessmen to, say China. This group could buy and certify what prices these goods are sold at in China. On goods that are industrial raw materials like chemicals, the industry associations could get some members to produce import bills. Sure there could be tariff differences and export subsidies but the issue here is that someone needs to document this. If there is a clear case for initiating anti-dumping duties, the chambers and corporates could petition the government.

My own feeling is that this would probably be true only in a handful of cases. After all, not every product and brand arriving via Mumbai or Kandla and sought after by Indian consumers is being “dumped”. Moreover the Chinese do export — notably toys worth $ 14 billion — to other parts of the world and nobody there is whining. Obviously, they are doing something right. Clearly, their production costs are not subject to inefficiencies of government — like high capital costs, high labour costs, inflexible labour regimes, poor infrastructure et al. So this document could also work as a template for the industry and chambers’ to push forth their long standing demand for full-fledged reforms by the government.

If all this is too much of a problem, there is another way out.
»They could ask Bajaj Electrical (whose chief Shekhar Bajaj is also the head of Assocham) what made them decide on producing fans in Guangdong, in China.
»They could ask Madura and Grasim (whose chairman Kumar Mangalam Birla is on the prime ministers’ task force on reforms) on how competitive it is to import fabrics from China, produce garments in Bangladesh and sell them in India.
»They could ask Philips as to why it prefers to outsource energy saving fluorescent lamps from China.
»They could ask the top diamond exporters on how easy and tension-free it has been for them to relocate cutting units to China.

It is time Indian industry forced the government to act on its pronouncement of reforms. It is time they stopped whining. Paranoia will not help. Indeed, it will only cloud the picture further.

(V Shankar Aiyar is Associate Editor, INDIA TODAY. He is based in Mumbai.
Write to V.
Shankar Aiyar.)

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