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Raj Chengappa
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21 UP
Chalo
America
Much
brouhaha is usually made over Indian prime ministerial visits to the US.
Atal Bihari Vajpayee's 12-day sojourn in America beginning September 5
is no exception. Already, South Block is crowing about the significance
of Vajpayee being 'put up' at Blair House in Washington DC---apparently
the first Indian prime minister to be bestowed with such a sleeping honour.
(Incidentally, Blair House is where US President Bill Clinton had his
famous July 4, 1999 meeting with Nawaz Sharif in which the deposed Pakistan
prime minister agreed to withdraw his troops from Kargil). Clinton is
also personally hosting a banquet for Vajpayee, which is being billed
as "a rare gesture". And so is the fact that first lady Hillary
is flying down
from New York where she is a senatorial candidate, just to play hostess.
Cynics have a ready explanation for such enthusiasm. They say Clinton
is a lame-duck president with plenty of time on his hands before he exits
office early next year. And that Hillary's air dash is meant to woo the
substantial people of Indian origin population voting in the New York
polls.
So is Vajpayee's visit to the US work in progress or just an extended
holiday? Hate to disappoint you folks, but despite all the hoopla the
trip ain't gonna see any significant movement forward in Indo-US relations.
Vajpayee's 'swap' visit comes too quickly after Clinton's sub-continental
jamboree in March to lead to any major announcements. Such summit meetings
are usually preceded by months, even a year of preparation so that the
maximum benefit can be derived when these two busy leaders meet. Even
Clinton's visit to the region was a hurriedly planned one and although
he did charm Indians and wagged his finger sternly at Pakistan, there
were no substantial agreements signed.
With Indo-US relations in deep freeze since the 1998 nuclear tests,
Clinton's trip did signal a thaw. But the ice has far from melted. On
fundamental issues such as lifting of the tough economic sanctions that
the US had imposed on India after the tests, a snail could measure its
progress. Despite the endless round of meetings between External Affairs
Minister Jaswant Singh and Deputy Secretary of State Strobe Talbott, the
nuclear imbroglio remains just that. The US has not been able to tame
Pakistan (which has in recent months even heightened its support to terrorism
in Kashmir) or come down heavily on China for its supply of missile and
nuclear technology to it.
Vajpayee touching down at DC isn't going to change things much. With the
US presidency in transition, no big initiatives are possible. Also the
visit comes after a heavy-duty millennium UN summit that has world leaders
flitting in and out, so the Indian prime minister's trip may figure only
on the inside pages of most newspapers. Even more so with Americans distracted
by the slugfest that marks most presidential elections. At best, the visit
would give the substantial Indian population in the US a chance to see
Vajpayee in person. However, with questions being raised over the prime
minister's health, even that opportunity may be truncated. Maybe he should
use the excuse to pull out of the trip altogether.
(Raj
Chengappa is Deputy Editor, INDIA TODAY and author of Weapons of Peace:
The Secret Story of India's Quest to be a Nuclear Power.) He is based
in Delhi. Write
to Raj Chengappa.)
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